Consumer Sentiment (August 2018)

- Sentiment Index 95.3. Previous was 97.9

This is the survey index from University of Michigan. It is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next few months.

 

E-Commerce Retail Sales (2ndQ2018)

- E-Sales quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate 3.9%. Previous was 3.6%

This is more about increased consumer spending in general than a shift from brick-and-mortar to online shopping.

 

 

Leading Indicators (July 2018)

- Leading Indicators month/month 0.6%. Previous was +0.5%

Housing Starts (July 2018)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,168,000. Previous was 1,158,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,311,000. Previous was 1,292,000

Single family was +1.9%. 2-4 units was -11.1%. 5+ units was +1.7%.

Housing has never recovered from the Great Recession. We need 1,500,000 starts/year to keep the Headship Ratio (number of people/unit) constant as the population expands .

 

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 8/11/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 212,000. Previous was 214,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 179,870 a decrease of 5,294 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 215,500. Previous was 214,500

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (August 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index 11.9. Previous was 25.7

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/10/2018)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +7.0%, +1.0%, -6.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and -2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week 0.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%. -2.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -2.5%, -2.0%, -4.0%, +6.0%, -2.0%, +4.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, and -4.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -2.6%, -0.2%, -2.5%, +2.5%, -0.5% -4.9%, +5.1%, -1.5%, +4.1%, -2.9%, -2.6%, and -2.7%

 

 

Retail Sales (July 2018)

- Retail Sales month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.2%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.2%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%

Retail Sales are the heart of GDP. The impact of the healthy data is mitigated by the fact that June was revised down which will decrease the next estimate of 2ndQ GDP. .

 

 

 

Productivity and Costs (2ndQ2018)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate +2.9%. Previous was +0.3%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate -0.9%. Previous was +3.4%

Productivity is GDP/hours worked. Output increased 4.8%. Hours worked increased 1.9%. These made for the large gain in productivity. The decrease in Unit Labot Cost should help keep inflation low.

 

 

Industrial Production (July 2018)

- Production month/month 0.1%. Previous was +1.9%
- Manufacturing month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.8%
- Capacity Utilization Rate 78.1%. Previous was 78.1%

 

 

Business Inventories (June 2018)

- Inventories month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.3%

This is part of 2ndQ GDP and the downward revision will decrease the next estimate of 2ndQ GDP

 

Housing Market Index (August 2018)

- Housing Market Index 67. Previous was 68

This is the lowest reading since last September. This is a survey index from National Association of Home Builders.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (July 2018)

- level 107.9. Previous was 107.2

 

 

Import and Export Prices (July 2018)

- Import Prices month/month +0.0%. Previous was -0.1%
- Export Prices month/month -0.5%. Previous was +0.2%
- Import Prices year/year +4.8%. Previous was 4.7%
- Export Prices year/year +4.3%. Previous was 5.3%

This data is the result of higher oil prices, lower prices for agricultural products and shows no noticable effect from tariffs.

 

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/11/2018)

- Same Store Sales year/year +4.5%. Previous was +5.6%

CPI (July 2018)

- CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI year/year +2.9%. Previous was +2.9%
- CPI less food & energy month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI less food & energy year/year +2.4%. Previous was +2.3%

While year/year core CPI the highest since February 2012 it was at a level to cause no damage to Treasury yields. The background issues of low unemployment (still believed to be
inflation-inducing) and tariffs being passed along to consumers in the future are not going away.

The largest contributor to year/year core inflation was shelter with a 3.5% increase. This is caused by land use regulations at the local level.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/4/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 213,000. Previous was 219,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 184,666 an increase of 4,785 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 214,250. Previous was 214,500

The Jobs Market remains very strong.

 

PPI-FD (July 2019)

- PPI-FD month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.3%
- PPI-FD year/year 3.3% Previous was 3.4%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month 0.1%. Previous was 0.3%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 2.7%. Previous was 2.8%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.3%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year 2.8%. Previous was 2.7%

Surprisingly, inflation remains subdued to non-existing at the wholesale level. PPI was flat both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. Food and energy prices were down.
Details here https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

 

Wholesale Trade (June 2018)

- Inventories month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/3/2018)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +7.0%, +1.0%, -6.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and -0.2%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -2.5%, -2.0%, -4.0%, +6.0%, -2.0%, +4.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, and -1.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -2.6%, -0.2%, -2.5%, +2.5%, -0.5% -4.9%, +5.1%, -1.5%, +4.1%, -2.9%, -2.6%, -2.7%, and 0.4%

Refi applications last week were the lowest since December 2000. Many folks are holding onto their 3.5% 30-year fixed rates from 2015.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/4/2018)

- Store Sales year/year 5.6%. Previous was 4.2%

 

 

JOLTS (June 2018)

- Job Openings 6,662,000. Previous was 6,659,000

Last Friday's BLS jobs report showed 6,280,000 people unemployed. This is the 4th consecutive month where Job Openings exceeded the number of unemployed. Job Openings may require experience, a college degree or a license that those unemployed do not have. What often happens is that those already employed quit and move to better paying jobs creating openings for those unemployed.

Employment Situation Report (July 2018)

- Nonfarm Payrolls seasonally adjusted month/month 157,000. Previous revised to 248,000
The 2 previous months were revised up by a total of 59,000 jobs making the corrected count +217,000

- Non seasonally adjusted jobs were -1,156,000. For the past 10 year July has always has a drop of just over 1 million jobs not seasonally adjusted.

- Unemployment Rate 3.9%. Previous was 4.0%
- Private Payrolls month/month 170,000. Previous was 234,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month 37,000. Previous was 33,000
- Participation Rate 62.9%. Previous was 62.9%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 2.7%. Previous was 2.7%.
- Average Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hours. Previous was 34.6 hours

 

 

Trade Deficit (June 2018)

- Trade Deficit $46.3 billion. Previous was $43.2 billion

 

 

PMI Services Index (July 2018)

- Level 56.0. Previous was 56.5

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July 2018)

- Composite Index 55.7. Previous was 59.1

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/28/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 218,000. Previous was
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 179,538 decrease of 21,750 previous
- 4-week Moving Average 214,500. Previous was 218,000

The jobs market remains extremely strong.

 

 

Factory Orders (June 2018)

- Factory Orders month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.4%

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report (July 2018)

- Announced Layoffs 27,122. Previous was 37,202