- New Claims seasonally adjusted 252,000. Previous was 260,000 - New Claims unadjusted, totaled 205,751 an increase of 12,460 from previous - 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 258,500. Previous was 260,750.
Initial Claims has remained near historical lows but people getting laid off is not the largest part of the total jobs picture. While media have cheered recent BLS Employment Situation Reports they have not, by any means been great.
Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (August 2016)
- Level -0.55. Previous was 0.24 - 3 Month Moving Average -0.07. Previous was -0.09
This index is an average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.
FHFA House Price Index (July 2016)
- month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.3% - Year/Year +5.8%. Previous was +5.7%
This measures the prices of home purchased with FNMA/FHLMC loans.
Existing Home Sales (August 2016)
- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,330.000. Previous was 5,380,000 - Existing Home Sales month/month -0.9%. Previous was -3.4% - Existing Home Sales year/year +0.8%. Previous was -1.6%
Sales down, prices up - strange. Part of the reason prices are up is that the supply is thin. Housing Starts are still well below where they should be and some folks who might otherwise move don't do so because of tax consequences.
Leading Indicators (August 2016)
- Leading Indicators month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.5%
Another indicator of weak economic growth.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (September 2016)
- New Claims seasonally adjusted 260,000. Previous was 259,000 - 4-week Moving Average 260,750. Previous was 261,250 - New Claims unadjusted, totaled 193,366 a decrease of 24,349 from previous
PPI-FD (August 2016)
- PPI-FD month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.4% - PPI-FD year/year 0.0%. Previous was -0.2% - PPI-FD less food & energy month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.3% - PPI-FD less food & energy year/year +1.0%. Previous was +0.7% - PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.0% - PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +1.2%. Previous was +0.8%
As I have been saying we will see lower inflation.
Retail Sales (August 2016)
- Retail Sales month/month -0.3%. Previous was -0.1% - Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.4% - Less Autos & Gas month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.1%
After a relatively strong 2ndQ Retail Sales are weak. This indicates a weak 3rdQ2016 GDP.
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (September 2016)
- General Business Conditions Index 12.8. Previous was 2.0
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (September 2016)
- General Business Conditions Index -1.99. Previous was -4.21
Industrial Production (August 2016)
- Production month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.6% - Manufacturing month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.4% - Capacity Utilization Rate 75.5%. Previous was 75.9%
Business Inventories (July 2016)
- Inventories month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.2%