Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 2/28/2015)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  320,000. Previous was 313,000

- New Claims unadjusted 310,497  an increase of 29,858 from previous 

- 4-week Moving Average  304,750. Previous was 294,500

 

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report (February 2015)

- Announced Layoffs 50,579. Previous was 53,041

For 3 years this number has been more or less flat but Initial Jobless Claims have steadily declined.  I have no idea what the implication is but clearly the correlation had diminished.

 

 

 

Productivity and Costs (4thQ2014)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized -2.2%. Previous was +3.9% - Unit labor costs quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized  +4.1%. Previous was -1.0%.

This data is hard to analyze because previous was revised from -1.8% to +3.9%.  Productivity is GDP/hour worked. 

 

Gallup US Payroll to Population  (February 2015)

- level  43.9. Previous was 44.1. 

This is the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older who are employed by an employer for at least 30 hours per week.

 

 

Factory Orders  (January 2015)

- Factory Orders month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -3.5%

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/20/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -10.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, and -13%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +0.1%. Previous weeks were -8.0%. -13.2%, -9.0%, +1.3%, -3.2%, +14.2%, +49.1%, -9.1%, +0.9%, -3.3%, +7.3%, and -7.3%.

The Purchase Index is important because it relates top Home Sales and Housing Starts  It has declined 6 of the past 7 weeks.

 

ADP Private Jobs (February 2015)

- Private Jobs  +212,000. Previous revised up from 213,000 to 250,000.

PMI Services Index  (February 2015)    - Level  57.1. Previous was 54.2.

 

 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index  (February 2015)

- Composite Index  56.9. Previous was 56.7.   

Personal Income and Outlays  (January 2015)

Personal Income month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.3%

Consumer Spending month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.3%

PCE Price Index month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.2%

Core PCE price index month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.0%

Personal Income year/year   +4.6%. Previous was +4.8%

Consumer Spending year/year  +3.6%. Previous was +3.6%

PCE Price Index year/year    +0.2%. Previous was +0.8% Core

PCE price index year/year   +1.3%. Previous was +1.3%.

 

PMI Manufacturing Index (February 2015)

- Level 55.1. Previous was 53.9. 

 

ISM Manufacturing Index (February 2015)

- Level  52.9. Previous was 53.5.

 

Construction Spending  (January 2015)

- Construction Spending month/month -1.1%. Previous was +0.4%

- Construction Spending year/year +1.8%. Previous was +2.2%.

GDP (4th Q2014)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.2%. Previous estimate was +2.6%

- GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized +0.1%. Previous estimate was +0.0%.

This is weak.  We should be targeting 4% annual growth.

 

Chicago PMI (February 2015)

- Business Barometer Index  45.8. Previous was 59.4.

This is the lowest level since July 2009. 

 

Consumer Sentiment (February 2015)

- Sentiment Index  95.4. Previous was 93.6. 

This is the University of Michigan Index.

 

Pending Home Sales Index (January 2015)

- Pending Home Sales Index   104.2. Previous was 102.5.

A gain is nice but this one followed a December decline making for, more or less, a 2 month wash.

Consumer Price Index (January 2015)

- CPI month/month -0.7%. Previous was -0.3%.

- CPI year/year   -0.2 %. Previous was +0.7%

- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2 %. Previous was +0.1%

- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.6 %. Previous was +1.6%.

No surprises here.  Core inflation is modest and lower energy prices made for a negative overall.

 

Durable Goods Orders (January 2015)   

- New Orders month/month  +2.8%. Previous was  -3.7%

- New Orders year/year  +5.4%. Previous was -0.1%

- Ex-transportation month/month  +0.3%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-transportation year/year  +4.5%. Previous was +3.6%  

Headline stronger, ex-trans weaker.

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/21/2015)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  313,000. Previous was 282,000

- New Claims unadjusted were 280,000 an increase of 2,096 from previous

- 4-week Moving Average  294,500. Previous was 283,000

The Jobs market still is showing signs of health.

 

 

FHFA House Price Index  (December 2014)

- month/month change  +0.8%. Previous was +0.8%

- year/year change +5.4%. Previous was +5.2%.

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/20/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, -0.1%, -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -10.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were -16.0%, -10.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, and -13%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -3.5%. Previous weeks were -13.2%, -9.0%, +1.3%, -3.2%, +14.2%, +49.1%, -9.1%, +0.9%, -3.3%, +7.3%, and -7.3%.

The Purchase Index is important because it relates to Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts. It is up for the first time in 6 weeks. The Housing Sector is still not healthy.

New Home Sales (January 2015)  

- New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized)  481,000. Previous was 482,000.

The modest gain follows an 8.1% gain in December.    

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/21/2015)

- Store Sales year/year +2.8%. Previous was +3.2%

 

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (December 2014)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.8%

- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month   +0.1%. Previous was -0.2%

- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year   +4.5%. Previous was +4.3%

Prices are increasing while Sales of Existing Home are decreasing.

 

Consumer Confidence (February 2015)

- Consumer Confidence  96.4. Previous was 99.1.

This is the report from The Conference Board and displays some concern that consumer spending will decrease.

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (February 2015)

- Level change 0. Previous was +6.

 

 

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (January 2015)

- Level  +0.13. Previous was -0.07  - 3 Month Moving Average +0.33. Previous was +0.34 

This index is national and is a weighted average of 85 different pieces of data.  January was strong in comparison with a weak December.

 Existing Home Sales (January 2015)

- Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized)  4,820,000. Previous was 5,070,000

- Existing Home Sales year/year +3.2%

The cause of anemic Home Sales is based on the fact that young people cannot afford to purchase. The following is from Zillow: "Most young adults are living with their parents or living with friends in order to defray housing costs rather than cohabitating with a significant other. Low wages, minimal employment opportunities and the high cost of rent has forced many young adults to pack into fewer households, increasing household size but negatively impacting the rate of household formation. Between 2000 and 2013, the percentage of 23 to 34 year olds living with family increased 46% whereas the share of 23 to 34 year olds living with a significant other fell 21%. Zillow also found that the rate of young adults living with two or more roommates has increased at a higher rate and that a greater share of working adults are living with family rather than their partners."

   

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (February 2015)

- Business Activity Index -11.2. Previous was -4.4

- Production Index  +0.7. Previous was +0.7.

This is likely caused by the drop in oil prices.

 

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (February 2015)   

  - Level  54.3. Previous was 53.7.  

Initial Jobless Claims

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 283,000. Previous was 290,000

- New Claims unadjusted were 278,986,  a decrease of 45,213 (or -13.9%) from previous

- 4-week Moving Average    283,000. Previous was 289,750

 

Leading Indicators (January 2015)

- LEI (month/month) was +0.2%. Previous was +0.4%

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey (February 2015)

- General Business Conditions Index  5.2. Previous was 6.3. 

 

Yesterday's release of the minutes of last month's FOMC meeting indicated that the Fed is in no rush to increase rates.  Why? Last GDP report indicated +2.64% annualized growth which is not enough to declare the economy healthy.