GDP (4thQ2014)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +2.6%. Previous was +5.0%

- GDP price index -quarter/quarter (seasonally adjusted, annualized) +0.0%. Previous was +1.4%.

The +2.6% growth is in line with expectations as opposed to the "what the heck was this" +5.0% of the 3rd quarter.

Consumer Spending was up and that is a healthy sign for the economy.

This is the initial release of 4thQ22014 GDP and, except for consumer spending, the other GDP components have 2 months of data and 1 month of guessing.

To me, the fact that Consumer Confidence is enormous and Consumer Spending is up are more important than the dip in GDP.

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/24/2015)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  265,000. Previous was 308,000

- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 280,237 a decrease of 102,358 from the previous week

- 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 298,500.  Previous was 306,750.

The headline weekly adjusted metric is at the lowest level in 15 years.

 

Pending Home Sales Index (December 2014)

- Pending Home Sales Index month/month 100.7. Previous was 104.6.

This is from the National Association of Realtors and measures ratified contracts - a leading indicator of Home Sales. With low interest rates, more folks working and easier lending standards from the GSE's this data should be better.  Issues may be that the added jobs do not offer high enough income to qualify and that prices are still too high for many.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/23/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -0.1%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -5.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +22.0%. +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% and -6.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -3.2%. Previous weeks were +14.2%, +49.1%, -9.1%, +0.9%, -3.3%, +7.3%, -7.3%, -4.3%, +4.9%, -0.9%, and -2.6%.

Refinance activity, while flat last week, has picked up considerably as rates dropped.

Durable Goods Orders (December 2014)

- New Orders month/month -3.4%. Previous was -2.1%

- Ex-transportation month/month  -0.8%. Previous was -1.3%.

Manufacturing is soft but is no longer very large part of the economy.  Dollar strength will make things worse because it will now be tougher for U.S. companies to export Durables because the will be more expensive in Euros.

 

Redbook (week ended 1/24/2015)  

- Store Sales year/year +3.2%. Previous was +3.0%.  

 

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (November 2014)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month  +0.7%. Previous was +0.7%

- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month -0.2%. Previous was 0.1%

- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +4.3%. Previous was +4.5%

 

PMI Services Flash (January 2015)

- Level 54.0. Previous was 53.8. 

 

New Home Sales (December 2014)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 481,000. Previous was 431,000.

This is an improvement over  November's poor data. 

 

 

Consumer Confidence  (January 2015)

- Confidence 102.9. Previous was 93.1.

This is The Conference Board's metric. This is very strong and is supposed to be a leading indicator of Consumer Spending.

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index  (January 2015)

- level change 6. Previous was 7.

This is a survey index.

Existing Home Sales (December 2014)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized  5,040,000. Previous was 4,920,000

 

 

Leading Indicators  (December 2014)

- Leading Indicators month/month  +0.5% . Previous was +0.4%.

 

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (December 2014)

- Level -0.05.   - 3 Month Moving Average  +0.39 

 

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash  (January 2015)

- Level 53.7. Previous was 53.7.

Jobless Claims (week ended 1/17/2015)  

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  307,000. Previous was 317,000

- New Claims (unadjusted) totaled 380,934, a decrease of 148,530  from the previous week. 

- 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 306,500 Previous was 300,000

 

 FHFA House Price Index (November 2014)   

- month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.6% - month/month +5.3%. Previous was +4.5%

These are prices of single-family homes purchased with conforming loans.    

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/16/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +24.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, and -5.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week +22.0%. Previous weeks were +66.0%, -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% -6.0%, and -7.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +14.2%. Previous weeks were +49.1%, -9.1%, +0.9%, -3.3%, +7.3%, -7.3%, -4.3%, +4.9%, -0.9%, -2.6%, and -6.6%.

 

Housing Starts (December 2014)   

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,089,000. Previous was 1,043,000

- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,032,000. Previous was 1,052,000.

Housing Starts generate construction jobs and the purchase of all that goes into housing. To keep up with population growth and scrappage of old homes, Housing Starts should be 1,500,000.

I believe that housing has become so expensive in some places that there are more people living with family members than there were 7 years ago.    

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/17/2015)   

- Store Sales year/year +3.0%. Previous was +3.8%.    

NAHB Housing Market Index (January 2015)

- Housing Market Index 57. Previous was 58. Any reading above 50 indicates growth.

This is a survey index which asks homebuilders about present sales, sales expectations over the next 6 months, and foot traffic of prospective buyers.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/9/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +24.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +1.0%, -7.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -10.0%, +12.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, and -1.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week +66.0%. Previous weeks were -12.0%, +1.0%, +0.0%, +13.0%, -13%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -11.0% -6.0%, -7.0%, and +23.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +49.1%. Previous weeks were -9.1%, +0.9%, -3.3%, +7.3%, -7.3%, -4.3%, +4.9%, -0.9%, -2.6%, -6.6%, and +11.6%.

 

 

 

Retail Sales (December 2014)

- Retail Sales month/month  -0.9%. Previous was +0.4% - Retail Sales less autos month/month -1.0%. Previous was +0.1% - Less Autos & Gas month/month -0.3%. Previous was +0.6%.

This report does not square with reports of higher Consumer Confidence which is supposed to be a leading indicator of spending and it does not square with the elation over the "Happy Days

Are Here Again" reporting of the +5.0% 3rdQ2014 GDP.

 

Import and Export Prices  (December 2014)

- Export Prices month/month -1.2%. Previous was -0.8%

- Export Prices year/year -3.2%.

- Import Prices month/month -2.5%. Previous was -2.5%

- Import Prices year/year -5.5%.

Import prices are down because of the drop in the price of crude oil.  Export prices are down because of softness of the EU economy.

 

Business Inventories  (November 2014)

- Inventories month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%.

This is a GDP component.  Since it is getting too far ahead of Retail Sales it should correct.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/3/2015)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  294,000. Previous was 298,000

- New Claims unadjusted totaled 425,399 an increase of 35,581 from the previous week

- 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted)  290,500. Previous was 290,750

The large post-Christmas seasonal adjustments make it difficult to judge is this data is good or bad for the economy.

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report (December 2014)

- Announced Layoffs  32,640. Previous was 35,940

 

Gallup US Payroll to Population (December 2014)

- Payroll to Population Ratio 44.3. Previous was 44.2.