- New Claims seasonally adjusted 253,000. Previous was 254,000 - New Claims unadjusted, totaled 269,206 a decrease of 29,467 from previous - 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 257,750. Previous was 259,000
Initial Jobless Claims have very low for months.
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (July 2016)
- General Business Conditions Index -2.9. Previous was 4.7.
Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (June 2016)
- Level +0.16. Previous was -0.56 - 3 Month Moving Average -0.16. Previous was -0.38
This is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.
FHFA House Price Index (May 2016)
- month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2% - year/year +5.6%. Previous was +5.9%.
I continue to be one of the minority of commentators who sees slower increases in home prices as a big positive. One word: affordability.
This is a index which tracks the prices of homes purchased with loans sold to FNMA or FHLMC. It does not include those purchased with Jumbo mortgages or those sold for cash.
Existing Home Sales (June 2016)
- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 5,570,000. Previous was 5,510,000 - Existing Home Sales month/month change +1.%. Year/year change +3.0%
Leading Indicators (June 2016)
- Leading Indicators month/month +0.3%. Previous was -0.2%.
This is a weighted composite of 10 economic indicators which should forecast the health of the economy in the next 3-6 months.
- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,189,000. Previous was 1,135,000 - Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,153,000. Previous was 1,136,000
Starts were 4.8% above May but 2.0% below June 2015. Seven years after the "recovery" Housing Starts are still less than 80% of what they need to be to account for population growth and scrappage of units. Single family Starts were 738,000.
Redbook (week ended 7/16/2016)
- Chain Store Sales year/year +0.4%. Previous was +0.8%.
This is derived from a survey conducted by The National Association of Home Builders. It takes into account present sales of new homes, sale of new homes expected in the next six months, and traffic of prospective buyers in new homes. This should be a leading indicator on New Home Sales.
- Purchase Index Week/Week +0.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -5.0%, +12.0%, -5.0%, +5.0%, -6.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, and +8.0%. - Refinance Index Week/Week +11.0%. Previous weeks were +21.0%, -2.0%, +7.0%. -1.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +0.5%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +3.0%. and +11.0%. - Composite Index Week/Week +7.2%. Previous weeks were +14.2%, -2.6%, +2.9%, -2.4%, +9.3%, -4.1%, +2.3%, -1.6%, +0.4%, -3.4%, -4.1%, and +1.3%.
Almost all that I read each week in the reporting of Mortgage Applications tries to make a nexus between rates add purchase applications. The fact is that people do not suddenly decide to buy a home because mortgage rates fell 0.125% or 0.25% in a given week. I mean "Honey rates are down 0.125%, let's move" - not. Refis are extremely rate sensitive. Purchases would be affected only by relatively large, extended rate increases.
Import and Export Prices (June 2016)
- Import Prices month/month +0.2%. Previous was +1.4% - Export Prices month/month +0.8%. Previous was +1.2% - Import Prices year/year -4.8%. Previous was -5.0% - Export Prices year/year -3.5%. Previous was -4.5%.
Small business optimism has recovered from the low it hit in March.
Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/9/2016)
- Chain Store Sales year/year +0.8%. Previous was +0.6%.
JOLTS (May 2016)
- Job Openings 5,500,000. Previous was 5,845,000
This report has showed recently what is wrong with the Jobs Market and, by implication, the economy. Job Openings were increasing and many went unfilled because the skill set required was not possessed by those seeking jobs.