MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/20/2018)

 

- Purchase Index Week/Week +0.0%. Previous weeks were +6.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -6.0%, -6.0%, +0.0%, -3.0%, and +6.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -0.3%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -2.0%, -5.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, and +1.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week -0.2%. Previous weeks were +4.9%, -1.9%, -3.3%, +4.8%, -1.1%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +2.7%, -6.6%, -4.1%, +0.7%, -2.6%, and +4.5%.

Redbook Chain store Sales (week ended 4/21/2018)

- Store Sales year/year +2.6%. Previous was +3.0%

 

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February 2018)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.8%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.3%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +6.8%. Previous was +6.4%

As long as demand exceeds supply prices will increase. Not enough housing is being built where jobs are being created. This is painfully true in the San Francisco Bay Area.

 

FHFA House Price Index (February 2018)

- month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.9%
- year/year 7.2%. Previous was +7.4%

This is a metric of homes purchased with conforming loans.

 

 

New Home Sales (March 2018)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 694,000. Previous was 618,000

 

Consumer Confidence (April 2018)

- Consumer Confidence 128.7. Previous was 127.0

This is the metric from the survey taken by the Conference Board. It somewhat loosely tracks Retail Sales.

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (April 2019)

- Level -3. Previous was 16.

This is a regional metric.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (March 2018)

- Level 0.10. Previous was 0.98
- 3 Month Moving Average 0.27. Previous was 0.31

 

 

PMI Composite Flash (April 2018)

- Composite 54.8. Previous was 54.3
- Manufacturing 56.5. Previous was 55.7
- Services 53.4. Previous was 54.1

This is the preliminary flash report which shows healthy growth.

 

 

Existing Home Sales (March 2018)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,600,000. Previous was 5,540,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month +1.1%. Previous was +3.0%
- Existing Home Sales year/year -1.2%. Previous was +1.1%

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/14/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 232,000. Previous was 233,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 225,545 a decrease of 6,180 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 231,250. Previous was 230,000

 

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (April 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index 23.2. Previous was 22.3

This is a regional inded which has displayed growth since mid-2016.

 

 

 

Leading Economic Indicators (March 2018)

- Leading Indicators month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.7%

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/13/2018)

 

- Purchase Index Week/Week +6.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -6.0%, -6.0%, +0.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, and +3.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -5.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, and +4.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week +4.9%. Previous weeks were -1.9%, -3.3%, +4.8%, -1.1%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +2.7%, -6.6%, -4.1%, +0.7%, -2.6%, +4.5%, and +4.1%.

Housing Starts (March 2018)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,319,000. Previous was 1,295,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,354,000. Previous was 1,321,000

The nationwide month/month data shows an increase of 22.9% for 5+ units buildings and a decrease for SFR and 2-4 units. All 4 regions had decreases in SFR Starts.

 

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/14/2018)

- Store Sales year/year +3.0%. Previous was +2.9%

 

 

Industrial Production (March 2018)

- Production month/month +0.5%. Previous was +1.0%
- Manufacturing month/month +0.1%. Previous was +1.5%
- Capacity Utilization Rate 78.0%. Previous was 77.7%

Industrial Production was +4.3% year/year.

Retail Sales (March 2018)

- Retail Sales month/month +0.6%. Previous was -0.1%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.3%

Stronger than expected and a positive sign for 2ndQ2018 GDP.

 

Business Inventories (February 2018)

- Inventories month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%

This is a GDP component.

 

Housing Market Index (April 2018)

- Housing Market Index 69. Previous was 70

This is from a survey of members of the National Association of Home Builders expressing how confident they are about the economy and the housing market itself.

Consumer Sentiment (April 2018)

- Sentiment 97.8. Previous was 101.4

 

This is the University of Michigan metric. It is supposed to measure Consumer Spending in the next few months

This is below previous and below consensus.

 

JOLTS (February 2018)

- Job Openings 6,052,000. Previous was 6,312,000

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/7/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 233,000. Previous was 242,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 231,388 increase of 30,392 from the previous week
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 230,000. Previous was 228,250

Seasonal adjustment for that week is difficult to measure because of the wandering Easter holiday.

 

 

Import and Export Prices (March 2018)

- Import Prices month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.3%
- Export Prices month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.2%
- Import Prices year/year +3.6%. Previous was +3.4%
- Export Prices year/year +3.4%. Previous was +3.2%

No inflation concern in Import Prices.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/6/2018)

 

- Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -6.0%, -6.0%, +0.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, and +5.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +4.0%, and +11.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week -1.9%. Previous weeks were -3.3%, +4.8%, -1.1%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +2.7%, -6.6%, -4.1%, +0.7%, -2.6%, +4.5%, +4.1%, and +8.3%.

 

 

Consumer Price Index (March 2018)

- CPI month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI year/year 2.4%. Previous was +2.4%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year 2.1%. Previous was +1.8%

Inflation remains tame.

 

 

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (April 2018)

- Business Inflation Expectations year/year +2.3%. Previous was +2.1%