PMI Services Flash  (July 2014)

- Index level 61.0.  Previous was 61.2.

Lower but still strong.

Pending Home Sales Index  (June 2014)

- Pending Home Sales Index   102.7. Previous was 103.8.

This is a leading index generated by The National Association of Realtors pertaining to Existing Home Sales. 

 

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (July 2014)

- Business Activity Index 12.7.  Previous was 12.0

- Production Index 19.1.  Previous was 15.5.

Durable Goods Orders (June 2014)

- New Orders month/month +0.7%. Previous was -1.0%

- Ex-transportation month/month  +0.8%. Previous was -0.1%

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/19/2014)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted)  284,000. Previous was 303,000.

- New Claims (unadjusted) 292,344  a decrease of 78,215 from the previous week.

- 4-week Moving Average  302,000. Previous was 309,250.

Initial Claims are at an 8-year low and indicate a healthier jobs market.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash

- Level 56.3.  Previous was 57.6

This datum is produced by Markit from surveys of purchasing managers and is intended to be a leading indicator of the health of manufacturing.

New Home Sales  (June 2014)

-New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 406,000. Previous was 442,000.  This is 11.5% below a year ago. Homebuilding is hurting. 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/18/2014)  

- Purchase Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, and -4.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, and +2.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +2.4%. Previous weeks were -3.6%, +1.9%, -0.2%, -1.0%, -9.2%, +10.3%, -3.1%, -1.2%, +0.9%, +3.6%, and +5.3%.

Year-on-year the Purchase Index is -15.0%.  Higher prices, weak economic growth and the general lack of confidence it creates and tougher home loan qualifying guidelines are all hurting home sales.

Consumer Price Index (June 2014)

- CPI month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.4%

- CPI year/year +2.1%. Previous was +2.1%

- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3%

- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.9%. Previous was 1.9%.

This shows contained inflation. It remains to be seem what the net effect of QE is on inflation.

ICSC-Goldman Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/19/2014)

- Store Sales week/week -0.4%. Previous was +0.1%

- Store Sales year/year +2.8%. Previous was +4.5%

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/19/2014)

- Store Sales year/year +3.7%. Previous was +4.1%

FHFA House Price Index (May 2014)

- Prices month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.1%

- Prices year/year +5.5%. Previous was +6.1%.

I have always been out of step with people in the housing and home loan business because I see home prices increasing much above 2% as a negative. Housing expense eats too much of people's income leaving them with less disposable income and hurting the rest of the economy.

 

Existing Home Sales (June 2014)

- Existing Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized)   5,040,000. Previous was 4,890,000

- Existing Home Sales month/month  +2.6%. Previous was +4.9%

- Existing Home Sales year/year -2.3%. Previous was -5.0%. 

This is another of those "better than last month. Worse than last year" fundamentals.

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (July 2014)

- index level 7. Previous was 3.

This is a survey index of manufacturers in the district covered by the Richmond Federal Reserve.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (June 2014)

- Index level 0.12.  Previous was 0.21

- 3 Month Moving Average 0.13. Previous was 0.19.

The economy is still growth but at a slower pace.  As repeated here weekly too little attention had been paid lately as to just how poor economic growth in the U.S. has been lately.  

Leading Indicators (June 2014)

- Leading Indicators month/month +0.3%.  Previous was +0.7%.

This is a rehash of 10 other pieces of data and has, for some time, merely reflected the Federal Reserve policy of increasing money supply and keeping rates low.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July 2014)

- Consumer Sentiment 81.3.  Previous was 82.5.

This index is derived from surveys of consumers attempting to ascertain their spending in the next 90 days.

Housing Starts  (June 2014)

- Starts (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 893,000. Previous revised down to 985,000

- Permits (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 963,000. Previous revised up to 1,038,000.

This is disappointing data. 

 

Jobless Claims  (week ended 7/12/2014)

- Initial Claims (seasonally adjusted) 302,000. Previous was 305,000

- Initial Claims (unadjusted)  totaled 369,591an increase of 47,079 from the previous week

- 4-week moving average 309,000.

Jobless Claims remain low.

Philadelphia Fed Survey (July 2014)

- General Business Conditions Index 23.9.  Previous was 17.8.

This is a survey report intended to measure general business conditions in the area served by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/11/2014)  

- Purchase Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%. -5.2%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, and -3.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -0.1%. Previous weeks were +0.4%, +0.1%, -1.0%, -13.0%, +11.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, and -7.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -3.6%. Previous weeks were +1.9%, -0.2%, -1.0%, -9.2%, +10.3%, -3.1%, -1.2%, +0.9%, +3.6%, +5.3%, and -5.9%.

The weak economy and tighter mortgage lending regulations are making purchasing a home more difficult.

 

PPI-FD (June 2013)

 

- PPI-FD month/month  +0.4%. Previous was -0.2%

- PPI-FD year/year    +1.9%. Previous was  +2.0%

- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.1%

- PPI-FD less food & energy -year/year  +1.7%. Previous was +2.0%

- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.2%. Previous was + 0.0%.

Wholesale price inflation returned in June with about half the increase due to energy.

Industrial Production (June 2014)

- Production month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.5%

- Capacity Utilization Rate 79.1%. Previous was 79.1% 

- Manufacturing month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.6%.

Growth is still there but as a slower pace.

NAHB Housing Market Index  (July 2014)

- Housing Market Index 53.  Previous was 49.

This is an index calculated from surveys of homebuilders.  Even though it is just above neutral, this is the best reading so far this year. 

ICSC-Goldman Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/12/2014)

- Store Sales week/week +0.1%. Previous was +1.7%

- Store Sales year/year +4.5%. Previous was +3.3%

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/12/2014)

- Store Sales year/year +4.1%. Previous was +6.0%.

Retail Sales (June 2014)

- Retail Sales month/month +0.2%. Previous revised to +0.5%

- Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.4%. Previous revised to +0.4%

- Less Autos & Gas month/month +0.4%. Previous revised to +0.3%.

The gains for the month are disappointing but May's upward revisions made the starting point higher so this data is neutral.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey  (July 2014)

- General Business Conditions Index 25.6. Previous was 19.28.

This survey index is a relic from a time when there was a lot of manufacturing in New York State.

Import and Export Prices (June 2014)

- Export Prices month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.1%  

- Export Prices year/year   +0.2%. Previous was +0.5%

- Import Prices month/month +0.1 %. Previous was +0.1%

- Import Prices year/year   +1.2 %. Previous was +0.4%

No signs of inflation here.