PMI Composite Flash (June 2018)

- Composite 56.0. Previous was 55.7
- Manufacturing 54.6. Previous was 56.6
- Services 56.5. Previous was 55.7

This is a soft (survey based) metric. Anything above 50 indicates expansion.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/16/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 218,000. Previous was 221,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 205,583 a decrease of 11,706 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 224.25 K 225.00 K 221,000. Previous was 225,000

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (June 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index 19.9. Previous was 34.4.

 

 

 

FHFA House Price Index (April 2018)

- month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- year/year +6.4%. Previous was +7.0%

These are prices for home purchased with FHLMC/FNMA loans. Slower growth is necessary as prices have been rising to unaffordable levels in many places.

 

 

Leading Indicators (May 2018)

- Leading Indicators month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.4%.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/15/2018)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -0.2%, -2.0%, +0.0%, +6.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, and +1.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +6.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +4.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, -0.3%, +4.0%, -2.0%, -5.0%, +7.0%, and -5.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +5.1%. Previous weeks were -1.5%, +4.1%, -2.9%, -2.6%, -2.7%, 0.4%, -2.5%, -0.2%, +4.9%, -1.9%, -3.3%, +4.8%, and -1.1%.

Year/year purchase applications were -1.%.

 

Existing Home Sales (May 2018)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,430,000. Previous was 5,450,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month -0.4%. Previous was -2.7%
- Existing Home Sales year/year -3.0%. Previous was -1.4%

Part of the problem is prices which have been pushed up by lack of supply. This lack of supply is cause by land use regulations most especially zoning.

 

Housing Starts (may 2018)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,350,000. Previous was 1,287,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,301,000. Previous was 1,352,000

SFR Starts were +5.6% 4+ units were +11.3%. Northeast and West were both down. Local laws and regulations especially zoning are preventing housing from being built where the jobs are and where people want to live. Permits being down indicates that no relief is in sight.

 

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/6/2018)

- Store Sales year/year +4.7%. Previous was +4.3%

Housing Market Index (June 2018)

- Housing Market Index 68. Previous was 70

This is a survey index of home builder confidence. The survey is conducted by The National Association of Home Builders. Homes will not be built if builders are not confident they can
sell them at a profit. The lengthy permit and construction process means that confidence must be maintained for a substantial period of time.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (June 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index 25.0. Previous was 20.1

This shows strength in manufacturing in New York State.

 

 

Industrial Production (May 2018)

- Production month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.9%
- Manufacturing month/month -0.7%. Previous was +0.6%
- Capacity Utilization Rate % 77.9%. Previous was 78.1%

The Fed explains the decline with "Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier."

 

 

 

Consumer Sentiment (June 2018)

- Sentiment Index 99.3. Previous was 98.0

This is the University of Michigan Index. This survey is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next few months.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/9/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 218,000. Previous was 222,000
- New Clains unadjusted, totaled 213,698 an increase of 22,175 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 224,250. Previous was 225,500

The Jobs market remains healthy. The number of unemployed people is the lowest it has been since November 1973 when the Labor Force was just over half its present size.

 

Retail Sales (May 2018)

- Retail Sales month/month 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.1 % to 0.6 % +0.8%. Previous was +0.4%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.7 % +0.9%. Previous was
- Less Autos & Gas month/month 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.2 % to 0.5 % +0.8%. Previous was +0.8%

While expectations had no narrow consensus this is much higher than most everyone expected. This is the heart of GDP and indicates strong 2ndQ2018 GDP.

 

Import and Export Prices (May 2018)

- Import Prices month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%
- Export Prices month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%
- Import Prices year/year +4.3%. Previous was +3.6%
- Export Prices year/year +4.9%. Previous was +3.7%

 

Business Inventories (April 2018)

- Inventories month/month +0.3%. Previous was -0.1%

This is a GDP component.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/8/2018)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -0.2%, -2.0%, +0.0%, +6.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, -0.3%, +4.0%, -2.0%, -5.0%, +7.0%, -5.0%, and -2.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -1.5%. Previous weeks were +4.1%, -2.9%, -2.6%, -2.7%, 0.4%, -2.5%, -0.2%, +4.9%, -1.9%, -3.3%, +4.8%, -1.1%, and +0.9%.

 

PPI-FD (May 2018)

- PPI-FD month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD year/year +3.1%. Previous was +2.6%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year +2.4%. Previous was +2.3%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year +2.6%. Previous was +2.5%

Further signs of upward creeping inflation.

 

 

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (June 2018)

- Business Inflation Expectations year/year 2.1%. Previous was +2.0%

Consumer Price Index (May 2018)

- CPI month/month 0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI year/year 2.8%. Previous was +2.5%
- CPI less food & energy month/month 0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI less food & energy year/year 2.2%. Previous was +2.1%

While inflation is creeping higher this report will have little immediate effect on Treasury yields and rates because the data was as expected.

 

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/9/2018)

- Store Sales year/year change +4.3%. Previous was +4.0%

 

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May 2018)

- level 107.8. Previous was 104.8

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/2/2018)

- New Claims, seasonally adjusted 222,000. Previous was 221,000
- New Claims, unadjusted, totaled 191,177 a decrease of 11,669 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 225,500. Previous was 222,750

 

 

 

Quarterly Services Survey (1stQ2018)

- Information Revenue quarter/quarter +1.7%. Previous was -4.0%
- Information Revenue year/year +7.0%. Previous was +7.0%

This is a Census Bureau survey index. It measures revenue from tech related services including information industries, professional, scientific, and technical services, administrative and
support and waste management and remediation services, hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities.