Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/20/2018)

- Same Store Sales year/year  5.5%. Previous was 5.8%

 

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (October 2018)

- Level   15. Previous was 29.

Growth but at a slower rate. This is a regional index. 

Chicago Fed National Activity Index  (September 2018)

- Level   0.17. Previous was 0.27 
- 3 Month Moving Average  0.27    0.21. Previous was 0.27 

Any positive number shows growth. This is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.

Existing Home Sales (September 2018)
  
- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  5,150,000. Previous was 5,330,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month  -3.4%. Previous was -0.2%
- Existing Home Sales -year/year   -4.1%. Previous was -1.7%

This is the lowest rate since November 2015.  The main cause is that sellers have not adjusted to the fact that the market has become balanced and asking prices in many places are still too high.  This is a  breakdown of the month/month changes by region and price range.

https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-09-2018-supplemental-data-2018-10-19.pdf

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/13/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 210,000. Previous was 215,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 190,017 a decrease of 9,847 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  211,750. Previous was 209,750

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending September 29 was 1,395,087, a
decrease of 26,574 from the previous week.

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (October 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index  22.2. Previous was 22.9 

  

Leading Indicators  (September 2018)

- Leading Indicators month/month 0.5%. Previous was +0.4%

If Leading Indicators is a sign of economic health in the next few months then in 2019 the economy should get off to a good start.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/17/2018)

- Purchase Index week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +0.1%, +3.0%, +0.3%, +1.0%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, and -5.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -9.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -0.1%, +3.0%, +4.0%, -6.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +3.0%, 0.0%, -5.0%. -2.0%, +1.0%, and +2.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -7.1%. Previous weeks were -1.7%, +0.0%, +2.9%, +1.6%, -1.8%, -1.0%, -1.7%, +4.2%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -2.6%, -0.2%, and -2.5%

 

Housing Starts (September 2018)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  1,201,000. Previous was 1,268,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,241,000. Previous was 1,249,000

With GDP growth strong and unemployment lower than low Housing Starts should be much higher than this. A significant cause is continued restrictive land use regulations especially zoning.

These prevent building in those places where there is jobs growth. The consequences are high prices and longer commutes.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/13/2018)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.8%. Previous was 6.5%

 

 

Industrial Production  (September 2018)

- Production month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.4%
- Manufacturing month/month 0.2 %. Previous was 0.3%
- Capacity Utilization Rate  78.1 %. Previous was 78.1%

 

 

 

Housing Market Index  (October 2018)

- Housing Market Index  68. Previous was 67 

This index is from a survey of home builders who remain an optimistic lot.  We have been at or near this level for almost 2 years.

Some details are on the NAHB website at https://www.nahb.org/

 

 

JOLTS  (August 2018)

- Job Openings  7,136,000. Previous was 7,077,000

August BLS showed the number of unemployed at 5,964,000.

There are 1,172,000 more Job Openings than there are people unemployed.

Retail Sales (September 2018)

- Retail Sales month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  0.0%. Previous was +0.1%

The decline in core (less gas and autos) is of concern.  This affects 3rdQ2018 GDP.

 

 

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (October 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index 21.1. Previous was 19.0 

 

 

Business Inventories  (August 2018)

- Inventories month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.7%

Import and Export Prices (September 2018)

- Import Prices month/month  0.5%. Previous was -0.4%
- Export Prices month/month  0.0%. Previous was -0.2% 
- Import Prices year/year    3.5%. Previous was 3.8% 
- Export Prices year/year    2.7%. Previous was  3.5%

The increase in Import Prices is entirely due to higher oil costs.

 

 

Consumer Sentiment  (October 2018)

- Sentiment Index   99.0. Previous was 100.1 

This is a survey index conducted by the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center.

CPI  (September 2018)

- CPI month/month  0.1%. Previous was 0.2%
- CPI year/year 2.3%. Previous was  2.7%
- CPI less food & energy month/month   0.1%. Previous was 0.1%
- CPI less food & energy year/year  2.2%. Previous was 2.2%

Not exactly a picture of runaway inflation.  We have extremely low unemployment, the Fed hiking rates but no sign of inflation.

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/6/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  214,000. Previous was 207,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 199,166 an increase of 33,613 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  209,500 . Previous was 207,000

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending September 22 was 1,421,661, a decrease of 13,471 from the previous week.

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/5/2018)

 

- Purchase Index week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +0.1%, +3.0%, +0.3%, +1.0%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, and +7.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, +3.0%, +4.0%, -6.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +3.0%, 0.0%, -5.0%. -2.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, and -2.5%
- Composite Index Week/Week -1.7%. Previous weeks were +0.0%, +2.9%, +1.6%, -1.8%, -1.0%, -1.7%, +4.2%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -2.6%, -0.2%, -2.5%, and +2.5%

Interest rates last week were the highest since February 2011.

 

 

PPI-FD  (September 2018)

- PPI-FD month/month  0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
- PPI-FD year/year   2.6%. Previous was 2.8% 
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month   0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 2.3 %   2.5%. Previous was 2,3%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month  0.4%. Previous was 0.1%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year   2.9%. Previous was 2.9%

BLS in this release note that "In September, over one-third of the advance in prices for final demand services can
be traced to the index for airline passenger services, which rose 5.5 percent."

See: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

 

 

 

 

Wholesale Trade (August 2018)

- Inventories month/month  1.0%. Previous was +0.6%

This is part of 3rdQ GDP.