PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (September 2016)

- Level 51.4. Previous was 52.1.

 

Atlanta Federal Reserve Business Inflation Expectations (September 2016)

- Business Inflation Expectation % year/year 1.9%. Previous was 1.8%.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/17/2016)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 252,000. Previous was 260,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 205,751 an increase of 12,460 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 258,500. Previous was 260,750.

Initial Claims has remained near historical lows but people getting laid off is not the largest part of the total jobs picture. While media have cheered recent BLS Employment Situation Reports they have not, by any means been great.

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (August 2016)

- Level -0.55. Previous was 0.24
- 3 Month Moving Average -0.07. Previous was -0.09

This index is an average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.

FHFA House Price Index (July 2016)

- month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%
- Year/Year +5.8%. Previous was +5.7%

This measures the prices of home purchased with FNMA/FHLMC loans.

Existing Home Sales (August 2016)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,330.000. Previous was 5,380,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month -0.9%. Previous was -3.4%
- Existing Home Sales year/year +0.8%. Previous was -1.6%

Sales down, prices up - strange. Part of the reason prices are up is that the supply is thin. Housing Starts are still well below where they should be and some folks who might otherwise move don't do so because of tax consequences.

Leading Indicators (August 2016)

- Leading Indicators month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.5%

Another indicator of weak economic growth.

 

Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (September 2016)

- Level +6. Previous was -4

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/16/2016)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were +9.0%, +1.0%, +1.0%, -0.3%, -4.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +0.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, and -2.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, +1.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, -15.0%, -1.0%, +11.0%, +21.0%, -2.0%, +7.0%, and -1.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week -7.3%. Previous weeks were +4.2%, +0.9%, +2.8%, -2.1%, +7.1%, -3.5%, -11.2%, -1.3%, +7.2%, +14.2%, -2.6%, and +2.9%.

Year/year purchase application were +3.0%. That 1-week blip in purchase applications disappeared.

Housing Starts (August 2016)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,142,000. Previous was 1,212,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,139,000. Previous was 1,144,000

We should have 1,500,000 Starts to keep pace with population growth and scrappage. We have not had that since December 2006.

The decrease in Starts month/month was entirely in apartment buildings. Single-family and 2-4 units Starts were both up.

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/17/2016)

- Store Sales year/year +0.2%. Previous was +0.4%

FOMC meeting starts today. Economic fundamentals indicate that a rate hike is not called for.

Housing Market Index (September 2016)

- Index 65. Previous was 59.

This is a measurement of the optimism of home builders. This Index is produced by The National Association of Home Builders. This reading indicates strength.

 

Consumer Price Index (August 2016)

- CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.0%
- CPI year/year +1.1%. Previous was +0.8%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +2.3%. Previous was +2.2%

CPI increased in August but I believe we will start to see it slow down in the 4thQ.

Consumer Sentiment (September 2016)

- Sentiment Index 89.8. Previous was 89.8

This is The University of Michigan's Sentiment Index. It is supposed to measure consumer spending in the next 90 days.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/10/2016)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 260,000. Previous was 259,000
- 4-week Moving Average 260,750. Previous was 261,250
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 193,366 a decrease of 24,349 from previous

PPI-FD (August 2016)

- PPI-FD month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.4%
- PPI-FD year/year 0.0%. Previous was -0.2%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.3%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year +1.0%. Previous was +0.7%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.0%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +1.2%. Previous was +0.8%

As I have been saying we will see lower inflation.

Retail Sales (August 2016)

- Retail Sales month/month -0.3%. Previous was -0.1%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.4%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.1%

After a relatively strong 2ndQ Retail Sales are weak. This indicates a weak 3rdQ2016 GDP.

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (September 2016)

 

- General Business Conditions Index 12.8. Previous was 2.0

 

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (September 2016)

- General Business Conditions Index -1.99. Previous was -4.21

 

Industrial Production (August 2016)

- Production month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.6%
- Manufacturing month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
- Capacity Utilization Rate 75.5%. Previous was 75.9%

 

Business Inventories (July 2016)

- Inventories month/month +0.0%. Previous was +0.2%

This is a GDP component.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/9/2016)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +9.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +1.0%, -0.3%, -4.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +0.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, and -5.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were ++1.0%, +4.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, -15.0%, -1.0%, +11.0%, +21.0%, -2.0%, +7.0%. -1.0%, and +7.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week +4.2%. Previous weeks were +0.9%, +2.8%, -2.1%, +7.1%, -3.5%, -11.2%, -1.3%, +7.2%, +14.2%, -2.6%, +2.9%, and -2.4%.

Import and Export Prices (August 2016)

- Import Prices month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- Export Prices month/month -0.8%. Previous was +0.2%
- Import Prices year/year -2.2%. Previous was -3.7%
- Export Prices year/year -2.4%. Previous was -3.0%.

I believe that a lot of people are missing the fact that because of slack worldwide demand prices and inflation will trend down in 4thQ2016.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (August 2016)

- Index level 94.4. Previous was 94.6

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/10/2016)

- Store Sales year/year +0.4%. Previous was +0.8%

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/3/2016)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 259,000. Previous was 263,000
- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 218,300 an increase of 3,151 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average 261,250. Previous was 263,000

Quarterly Information Services Survey (2ndQ2016)

- Information Revenue quarter/quarter -0.1%. Previous was +1.4%
- Information Revenue year/year +3.8%. Previous was +5.7%

The survey from the Census Bureau quarterly services focuses on information and technology-related service industries.