Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/14/2017)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 222,000. Previous was 244,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 204,788 a decrease of 24,500 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 248,250. Previous was 257,750

The effects of the hurricanes has abated and also there was data collected from Puerto Rico which showed a 2.2% increase in Jobless Claims.

 

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey (October 2017)

- General Business Conditions Index 27.9. Previous was 23.8

 

 

 

Leading Econonic Indicators (September 2017)

 

- Leading Indicators month/month -0.2%. Previous was 0.4%.

This is the first decline in over 1 year. Two of the the components of LEI are manufacturing hours worked and Initial Jobless Claims. This dip is likely due to the effect the hurricanes
had on jobs.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/13/2017)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -11.0%, +11.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and +1.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, -2.0%, -4.0%, -9.0%, +9.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +0.3%, +2.0%, +5.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%, and +13.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week +3.6%. Previous weeks were -2.1%, -0.4%, -0.5%, -9.7%, +9.9%, +3.3%, -2.3%, -0.5%, -1.0%, +3.0%, -2.8%, +0.4%, and +6.3%.

Purchase application were up 9.0% year/year.

 

Housing Starts (September 2017)

 

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,127,000. Previous was 1,183,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized 1,215,000. Previous was 1,272,000

If you need to find good news in the report from Census - single family starts were up after seasonal adjustment. The underlying reality is that homeownership is becoming but a dream for many.

 

Atlanta Federal Reserve Business Inflation Expectations (October 2017)

- Bus Inflation Expectations year/year +1.8%. Previous was +1.9%

 

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (October 18, 2017)

- Estimate of 3rdQ2017 GDP seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.7%

Import and Export Prices (September 2017)

- Import Prices month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.6%
- Export Prices month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.7%
- Import Prices year/year +2.7%. Previous was +2.1%
- Export Prices year/year +2.9%. Previous was +2.4%

If these levels persist inflation will bleed through to consumer prices which would be bad for mortgage rates.

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/14/2017)

- Store Sales Y/Y change 3.6%. Previous was +3.2%

 

Industrial Production (September 2017)

- Production month/month 0.3%. Previous was -0.7%
- Manufacturing month/month 0.1%. Previous was -0.2%
- Capacity Utilization Rate 76.0%. Previous was 75.8 %

Considering that some manufacturing should have bounced back from hurricanes this is weak data.

 

Housing Market Index (October 2017)

- Housing Market Index 68. Previous was 64.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (October 2017)

- General Business Conditions Index 30.2. Previous was 24.4

This index is from a survey conducted by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Because of the size of New York's population it ranks 9th in manufacturing jobs.

Consumer Price Index (September 2017)

- CPI month/month 0.5%. Previous was +0.4%
- CPI year/year 2.2%. Previous was +1.9%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.7%. Previous was +1.7%

Inflation at the retail level is mixed. The key thing to watch is whether it is above or below 2.0% which is the Fed's target.

 

Retail Sales (September 2017)

- Retail Sales month/month +1.6%. Previous was -0.1%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month % +1.0%. Previous was 0.5%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month - +0.5%. Previous was +0.1%

 

 

Business Inventories (August 2017)

- Inventories month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.3%

This is a component of GDP.

 

Consumer Sentiment (October 2017)

- Sentiment Index 101.1. Previous was 95.1

This is the University of Michigan Index.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/7/2017)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 243,000. Previous was 258,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 228,046 an increase of 23,384 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average 257,500. Previous was 267,000

Lately Jobless Claims have been more about weather than the economy. Claims dropped in Texas and Florida but data from Puerto Rico is not accurate due to lack transportation and/or communication.

 

PPI-FD (September 2017)

- PPI-FD month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD year/year +2.6%. Previous was +2.4%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year +2.2%. Previous was +2.0%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year +2.1%. Previous was +1.9%

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/6/2017)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -0.1%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, -11.0%, +11.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, and +3.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -4.0%, -9.0%, +9.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +0.3%, +2.0%, +5.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%, +13.0%, and -0.4%.
- Composite Index Week/Week -2.1%. Previous weeks were -0.4%, -0.5%, -9.7%, +9.9%, +3.3%, -2.3%, -0.5%, -1.0%, +3.0%, -2.8%, +0.4%, +6.3%, and +1.4%.

 

JOLTS (August 2017)

- Job Openings 6,082,000. Previous was 6,140,000

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (September 2017)

- level 103.0. Previous was 105.3

This is a survey index of small businesses. In general, small business are where jobs growth takes place.

 

 

Redbook Store Sales (week ended 10/7/2017)

- Store Sales year/year +3.2%. Previous was +4.1%

BLS Employment Situation Report (September 2017)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month -33,000. Previous was +169,000
- Unemployment Rate 4.2%. Previous was 4.4%
- Private Payrolls month/month -40,000. Previous was +164,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month -1,000. Previous was 41,000
- Participation Rate 63.1 %. Previous was 62.9 %
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.5%. Previous was 0.2%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 2.9%. Previous was 2.7%
- Average Workweek 34.4 hrs. Previous was 34.4 hrs

Because of the effect of the hurricanes I do not believe that any conclusions should be drawn from this report.

 

Wholesale Trade

- Inventories month/month +0.9%. Previous was +0.6%. This is a component of GDP.

Challenger Job-Cut (September 2017)

- Announced Layoffs 32,346. Previous was 33,825

 

International Trade (August 2017)

- Trade Deficit Trade Deficit Level $42.4 billion. Previous was $43.6 billion

Since a good deal of import/export is done by ships this may have been affected somewhat by Harvey's hitting Houston.

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/30/2017)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 260,000. Previous was 272,000
- New Claims unadjusted  totaled 206,653 a decrease of 8,378 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average 268,250. Previous was 277,750

The largest increase by state was Florida and the largest decrease was Texas displaying the effect and recovery from the hurricanes.

 

Factory Orders (August 2017)

- Factory Orders month/month +1.2%. Previous was -3.3%

The swing is due in large part to an increase in orders for Durable Goods.