Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/12/2014)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 304,000. Previous was 302,000

- 4-week Moving Average  312,000. Previous was 316,750

- New Claims (unadjusted)  totaled 317,701 an increase of 17,512 (or 5.8%) from the previous week

Initial Jobless Claims gets attention as a weekly surrogate for the health of the jobs market even though the market is a bit more complex.  Jobless Claims are about 15% of the movement in and out of the jobs market. Initial Jobless Claims are at a 5-year low.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey (April 2014)

- General Business Conditions Index 16.6. Previous was 9.0.

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/11/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, and -4.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +3.0%, and -2.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +4.3%. Previous weeks were -1.6%, -1.2%, -3.5%, -1.2%, -2.1%, +9.4%, -8.5%, -4.1%, -0.2%, +0.4%, and -0.2%.

Lower rates helped the refinance index.

Housing Starts (March 2014)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized   946,000. Previous was 920,000 - Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized  990,000. Previous was 1,104,000

Housing Starts should be 1,500,000 to accommodate population growth and scrappage.

Industrial Production  (March 2014)

- Production month/month +0.7%. Previous was revised up from +0.6% to +1.2%.

- Capacity Utilization Rate  79.2%. Previous was 78.8%

- Manufacturing month/month  +0.5%

Industrial Production includes utilities which were driven by cold weather in the past few months.

Consumer Price Index (March 2014)

- CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

- CPI year/year +1.5%. Previous was +1.1%

- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.6%.

This data is seasonally adjusted. The move up in inflation is of concern only if it continues. 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 4/12/2014)

- Store Sales week/week -0.3%. Previous was +1.5%

- Store Sales year/year +2.3%. Previous was +1.5%.

Redbook Store Sales (week ended 4/12/2014)

- Store Sales year/year +2.6%. Previous was +2.6%.

The Consumer Metrics Absolute Demand Index of online shopping shows volatility and is best viewed at http://www.consumerindexes.com/

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (April 2014)

- General Business Conditions Index 1.19.  Previous was 5.61.

This is a survey index of manufacturers in New York State.

Housing Market Index (April 2014)

- Housing Market Index 37. Previous was 46.

This is a index which surveys Home Builders.  This Index was at a record low in February which was likely weather related.  At present home builders are discouraged.

Retail Sales (March 2014)

- Retail Sales month/month +1.%. Previous was +0.7%

- Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.7%. Previous was +0.3%

- Less Autos & Gas month/month +1.0 %. Previous was +0.3%.

This is positive for 1stQ2014GDP.  Some of the gain may be due to delayed buying consequent to the bad winter weather the prior 2 months.

  Business Inventories (February 2014)

- Inventories month/month  +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%

This also is a component of GDP.  Inventory change represent three things:  1) filling of inventory for actual Retail Sales 2) anticipation of Retail Sales and 3) corrections to inaccuracies in previous estimations of future Retail Sales.

This data is market neutral.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/5/2014)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 300,000. Previous was 332,000

- 4-week Moving Average 316,250.  Previous was 321,000.

- New Claims (unadjusted) totaled 298,393 in the week ending April 5, an increase of 3,531 from the previous week.

The last time initial claims were this low was May 12, 2007 when they were 297,000

I think that what we see is an improved jobs market with a bit of extra confusion thrown is by the difficulty in adjusting for the movable nature of Easter.

Import and Export Prices (March 2014)

- Export Prices Month/Month +0.8%. Previous was +0.7%

- Export Prices Year/Year +0.2%

- Import Prices Month/Month  +0.6%. Previous was +0.9%

- Import Prices Year/Year -0.6%

There is a modest amount of inflationary force here some of which may be weather related.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/4/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, and +12.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +3.0%, -2.0%, and +10.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -1.6%. Previous weeks were -1.2%, -3.5%, -1.2%, -2.1%, +9.4%, -8.5%, -4.1%, -0.2%, +0.4%, -0.2%, and +4.7%.

Year-on-year Purchase Applications are down 14%.

Wholesale Trade  (February 2014)

- Inventories month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.8%.

Changes in inventories should forecast changes in sales as well as reflect the discrepancy between previous inventory grown and previous sales.  This is a component of GDP. The most important piece in GDP data is Final sales of Domestic Products.  Real Final Sales of Domestic Products was +2.66% in 4thQ2013.  That is the best since 1stQ2012.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (March 2014)

- level 93.4. Previous was 91.4

Since Small Businesses are responsible for so much job creation this is a very positive indication.

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales  (week ended 4/5/2014)

- Store Sales week/week +1.5%. Previous was +3.6% - Store Sales year/year +1.5 %. Previous was +0.6%

Redbook Store Sales  (week ended 4/5/2014)

- Store Sales year/year +2.9%. Previous was +2.3%

The Consumer Metrics Daily Absolute Demand Index a measure of online shopping moved up sharply since the start of the month.

These measures of retail spending are likely affected by the movable nature of the Easter Holiday.

JOLTS (February 2014)

- Job Openings 4,173,000. Previous was 3,874,000.

This is from the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.  The jobs market is improving.

BLS Employment Situation (March 2014)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  192,000. Previous revised up to +197,000. 

- Unemployment Rate 6.7%. Same as previous.

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.0%.

- Labor Participation Rate 63.2% up from 63.0%.

Jobless Claims (Week ended 3/39/2014)

- New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 326,000. Previous was 310,000

- 4-week Moving Average (seasonally adjusted) 319,500. Previous was 319,250

- New Claims (unadjusted) were 289,535 an increase of 15,463 from the previous week.

Jobless Claims are encouragingly low.

Challenger Job-Cut Report (March 2014)

- Announced Layoffs 34,399. Previous month was 41,835.

Gallup US Payroll to Population (March 2014)

- Payroll to Population ration was 42.7. Previous was 43.1

This tracks the percentage of the U.S. adult population aged 18 and older that is employed full time by an employer for at least 30 hours per week.  This is similar to the Labor Participation Rate we will see in tomorrow's BLS Employment Situation Report.

The fact that this is declining is critical.  This is much more important than the Unemployment rate which gets the headlines.  Part of the decline is due to an aging population and part of it is due to the jobs market itself which sees continued offshoring of jobs and too many people not having the skills for the jobs which are there.

The importance here is that those working produce the revenue to pay for Social Security, Medicare and over $1 trillion a year of means-based welfare spending along with all the other government expense.

International Trade (February 2014)

- Trade Deficit $42.3 billion.  Previous was $39.3 billion.

PMI Services Index  (March 2014)

- Level 55.3. Previous was 53.3.

This is a survey index of the service economy.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index  (March 2014)

- Composite Index 53.1. Previous was 53.3.

This also is a survey index and is moving in the opposite direction from the PMI Services Index.  Both show a growing economy.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/28/2014)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -1.0%, -1.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, +12.0%, and -1.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +10.0%, -11.0%, -3.0%, -0.2%, +3.0%, -2.0%, +10.0%, and +11.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week -1.2%. Previous weeks were -3.5%, -1.2%, -2.1%, +9.4%, -8.5%, -4.1%, -0.2%, +0.4%, -0.2%, +4.7%, and +11.9%.

Year-on-year Purchase Applications are down 17% the same as last week.

ADP Private Jobs (March 2014)

- Private Jobs were +191,000 and the previous month was revised upward by 39,000.  This offers encouragement for an improved BLS report this Friday.

Factory Orders (February 2014)

- Factory Orders Month/Month +1.6%.  Previous was revised down to -1.0%.