Jobs 

- Initial Jobless claims (week ending 10/125) 403,000
- Previous was 404,000. Consensus was 400,000
- 4-week moving average was 403,000

While the 4-week average continues to decline, this is not a picture of a healthy jobs market.  It appears more as a picture of a jobs market which is weak and too slowly recovering from the worst stages of an illness.

 

Leading Economic Indicators

 

LEI was +0.2% for September.  The pop in LEI is almost entirely due to a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield.  At present, LEI puts too much stock in the value of monetary policy.

 

Housing 

 

Existing Home Sales for September were 4,910,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
That was -3.0% month/month but +11.3% year/year.  There is a lot of inventory which must be sold but economic uncertainty and tough mortgage qualifying restrain buying.

Philadelphia Fed

General Business Conditions Index was 8.7 an improvement from September's -17.5