- Initial Jobless claims (week ending 10/125) 403,000
- Previous was 404,000. Consensus was 400,000
- 4-week moving average was 403,000
While the 4-week average continues to decline, this is not a picture of a healthy jobs market. It appears more as a picture of a jobs market which is weak and too slowly recovering from the worst stages of an illness.
Leading Economic Indicators
LEI was +0.2% for September. The pop in LEI is almost entirely due to a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield. At present, LEI puts too much stock in the value of monetary policy.
Existing Home Sales for September were 4,910,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
That was -3.0% month/month but +11.3% year/year. There is a lot of inventory which must be sold but economic uncertainty and tough mortgage qualifying restrain buying.
General Business Conditions Index was 8.7 an improvement from September's -17.5