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2 posts from November 2011

November 18, 2011

Does Increasing Bank Capital Requirements Destroy Money?

 

Over the past few years one of the people whose views on the economy I have come to respect is Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University.

 

I want to quote here from an article Hanke wrote for the November 2011 issue of "Globe Asia." Steve's case here is that increasing bank capital destroys money and consequently liquidity and asset prices. I have differences of opinion with Steve as to how this plays out but since monetary policy is his field I think it best to hear his case.

 

The remainder is quoted from Hanke's article.

 

As part of the money and banking establishment’s blame game, the accusatory finger has been pointed at commercial bankers. The establishment asserts that banks are too risky and dangerous because they are “undercapitalized.” It is, therefore, not surprising that the Bank for International Settlements located in Basel, Switzerland has issued new Basel III capital rules. These will bump banks’ capital requirements up from 4 percent to 7 percent of their risk-weighted assets. And if that is not enough, the Basel Committee agreed in late June to add a 2.5 percent surcharge on top of the 7 percent requirement for banks that are deemed too-big-to-fail.

 

The oracles of money and banking have demanded higher capital-asset ratios for banks. And that is exactly what they have received. Just look at what has happened in the U.S. Since the onset of the Panic of 2008-09, U.S. banks have, under political pressure and in anticipation of Basel III, increased their capital-asset ratios.

 

The establishment has erupted in cheers at the increased capital-asset ratios. They assert that more capital has made the banks stronger and safer. While at first glance that might strike one as a reasonable conclusion, it is not. For a bank, its assets (cash, loans and securities) must equal its liabilities (capital, bonds and liabilities which the bank owes to its shareholders and customers). In most countries, the bulk of a bank’s liabilities (roughly 90 percent) are deposits. Since deposits can be used to make payments, they are “money.” Accordingly, most bank liabilities are money.

 

To increase their capital-asset ratios, banks can either boost capital or shrink “risk” assets. If banks shrink their “risk” assets, their deposit liabilities will decline. In consequence, money balances will be destroyed.

 

The other way to increase a bank’s capital/asset ratio is by raising new capital. This, too, destroys money. When an investor purchases newly-issued bank equity, the investor exchanges funds from a bank deposit for new shares. This reduces deposit liabilities in the banking system and wipes out money.

 

So, paradoxically, the drive to deleverage banks and to shrink their balance sheets, in the name of making banks safer, destroys money balances. This, in turn, dents company liquidity and asset prices. It also reduces spending relative to where it would have been without higher capital/asset ratios.

 

By pushing banks to increase their capital-asset ratios to allegedly make banks stronger, the establishment has made their economies (and perhaps their banks) weaker. This is certainly the wrong medicine to prescribe when the economy is weak.


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November 11, 2011

Rate Watch #801 Who Are the 1%
November 11 , 2011
by Dick Lepre  
 
 

V) Who Are the 1%


This week I read an article by libertarian Mike Tanner of the Cato Institute seeking to answer the question "Who are the 1%?"


Making no judgment about OWS I do believe that it is interesting to determine if we can profile the top 1% of income earners. Knowing who these people are or more precisely how they make their money might help with determining fiscal policy or, more precisely, whether it is beneficial to increase income tax rates on these folks.


I want to thank Mike's research assistant Charles Hughes for pointing me to this paper.

The authors are Jon Bakija, Professor of Economic at Williams College, Adam Cole, Office of Tax Analysis, U.S. Treasury Department and Bradley T. Heim, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University.


The paper is written in the language of the technical side of economics with little slant to left or right.


Let me start with a couple of disclaimers. 1) the paper was written in November 2010 2) it went directly to part of the IRS called SOI (Statistics of Income) division to get the data for the research. The most recent year for which data was available was 2005. This was near the peak of the bubble. We will look at who the 1% were in 2005 and make some suggestions as to how the bubble collapse affected some subsets of those 1%.



SOC Job Descriptions of primary filers of the 1%

 

Executives, managers, supervisors (non-finance) 42.5%
Financial professions, including management 18.0%
Lawyers 7.3%
Medical 5.9%
Not working or deceased 3.8%
Real estate 3.7%
Entrepreneur not elsewhere classified 3.0%
Arts, media, sports 3.0%
Business operations (nonfinance) 2.9%
Computer, math, engineering, technical (nonfinance) 2.9%
Other known occupation 2.7%
Skilled sales (except finance or real estate) 2.3%
Professors and scientists 0.9%
Farmers & ranchers 0.6%

 

These industry grouping come from the SOC (Standard Occupational Classification) coding used by Federal statistical agencies to classify workers into occupational categories for the purpose of collecting, calculating, or disseminating data.

This paper uses the following definition of income: Income = Adjusted Gross Income - social security income - unemployment income - state tax refunds.

 

The only comment I will make is that this shows that almost 42.5% of the 1%'ers are the owners and managers of non-financial businesses. These people are not Wall Street. These are people who work and own, manage or supervise the businesses that are the heart of the U.S. economy.

 

I will offer the opinion that since the collapse of the real estate bubble there has been a decrease in the percent of 1%ERs in financial professions and real estate.


The paper also seeks to answer the question: Why has the gap in income increased so much since 1979? There is no easy answer.


The authors suggest several hypotheses to explain the significant increase in income disparity:


- advancing globalization. Some high income people can sell their skills and the skills of their companies to a larger set of customers.


- technology has made the salaries of highly-skilled workers much more valuable than the salaries of low-skilled workers.


- there are more "superstars" creating larger income gaps between those at the top and those not at the top. This is more obvious for people in entertainment and sports.


- executive compensation has changed giving, for example, stock options to executives.

- social norms had changed reducing outrage regarding high salaries.


- the Tax Reform Act of 1986 lowered the top rate for individual income taxes minimizing the incentive to form C-corporations and migrating some income onto personal tax returns from S-corporations.


They also mention income elasticity. This means at least two things: lower tax rates provide incentive to earn more because you get to keep more. This is also true at the opposite end of the income picture. Folks who benefit from food stamps, unemployment and Medicaid may have diminished reasons for increasing their income because they will lose some benefits. The issue of income elasticity is so intertwined with social issues that it becomes nearly impossible to discuss it in only economic terms.

 

If you have something to add to this discussion please post a comment on the blog.

 

 

Dick Lepre
RPM - SF Van Ness

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