PMI Services Index (December 2019)

- Level 52.8. Previous was 51.6
- PMI Composite Index 52.7. Previous was 52.0

This is a soft data (survey) metric. It is based on questionnaires sent to 400 companies. Print was above both previous and consensus range.

Source:  Markit Economics

ISM Manufacturing Index (December 2019)

- ISM Manufacturing Index  47.2. Previous was 48.8.

This is a survey based diffusion index. It looks at 5 components of the answers to questioneers sent to 300 manufacturing firms. The reading shows continued weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Source: Institute For Supply Management

Construction Spending  (November 2019)

- Construction Spending month/month 0.6%.  Previous was -0.8%
- Construction Spending year/year +4.1%.

- Residential Construction Spending month/month +1.8%.

Source:  Census Bureau. Details here: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/totsa.pdf

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (December 2019)

- Announced Layoffs   32,843. Previous was 44,569

Source:  Source: Challenger Gray & Christmas

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 12/28/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 222,000. Previous was 224,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 312,097 an increase of 24,772 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 233,250. Previous was 228,500

We are in the post-Christmas period where are very large adjustments to jobs and jobless claims due to the layoff of people hired for the Christmas season.  In January we typically see about 2.9 million fewer jobs (not seasonally adjusted) in the BLS Employment Situation Report issued in the first week of February.

Source:  Department of Labor

PMI Manufacturing Index  (December 2019)

- Level  52.4. Previous was 52.6

An indication of the health of the manufacturing sector.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/20/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, and -3.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -17.0%, +4.0%, +10.0%, +14.0%, and -15.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -5.3%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, -0.1%, +0.6%, -11.9%, +0.5%, +5.2%, +8.1%, and 10.1%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/21/2019)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 222,000. Previous was 235,000
- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 284,779 an increase of 14,390  from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 228,000. Previous was 225,750.

The jobs market remains strong.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details here: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Durable Goods Orders (November 2019)

- New Orders month/month -2.0%. Previous was +0.2%
- Ex-transportation month/month  0.0%. Previous was +0.3%
- Core capital goods month/month 0.1%. Previous was +1.2%

In November orders were down, shipments were up. A hint at the cause:  the CEO of Boeing was fired today

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (November 2019)

- Level  0.56. Previous was -0.76 
- 3 Month Moving Average -0.25. Previous was  -0.35

Details: https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/cfnai/2019/cfnai-december2019-pdf.pdf?la=en

New Home Sales  (November 2019)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 719,000. Previous was 710,000.

Permits, construction and sales of New Homes continue their painfully slow move upwards.  The largest increase by region was the Northeast.

Source:  Census Bureau.  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

GDP (3rdQ2019)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 2.1%. Previous was 2.1%
- Real Consumer Spending quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 3.2%. Previous was 2.9%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.8%. Previous was 1.7%

This is the third and so called "final" estimate of 3rdQ GDP. I use the expression "so called" because BEA adjusts past GDP growth for 5 years.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Corporate Profits (3rdQ2019)

- After-tax Profits year/year -1.1%. Previous was -0.4%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal Income and Outlays (November 2019)

- Personal Income month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.0%
- Consumer Spending month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.3%
- PCE Price Index month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- Core PCE price index month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.1%.
- PCE Price Index year/year 1.5%. Previous was 1.3%
- Core PCE price index year/year 1.6%. Previous was 1.6%

Higher income, higher spending, contained inflation. Hard to argue with those being signs of a healthy economy.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer Sentiment (December 2019)

- Sentiment Index 99.3. Previous was 99.2.

This is supposed to measure consumers intention to spend in the near future.

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey Center

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/14/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 234,000. Previous was 252,000
- New Claims , unadjusted, totaled 269,461 a decrease of 48,412 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 225,500. Previous was 224,000

Source: Department of Labor.  Details here: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (December 2019)

- General Business Conditions Index 0.3. Previous was 10.4

This is a regional survey index.

Source:  Philadelphia Federal Reserve

Existing Home Sales  (November 2019)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,350,000. Previous was 5,440,000 
- Existing Home Sales month/month -1.7%   
- Existing Home Sales year/year +1.4%

As I have been writing about for 2 years local land use, zoning and other regulations have discouraged building even though the demand is there.  The result is higher prices and reduced

affordability.  Housing Permits earlier this week was encouraging but is will take years to dig out of this regulatory-created mess.

Source:  National Association of Realtors®

Leading Economic Indicators  (November 2019)

- Leading Indicators month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.2%

This is a composite of 10 forward-looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/13/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, and +6.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -7.0%. Previous weeks were +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -17.0%, +4.0%, +10.0%, +14.0%, -15.0%, and -4.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, -0.1%, +0.6%, -11.9%, +0.5%, +5.2%, +8.1%, 10.1%, and -0.1%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Housing Starts  (November 2019)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,365,000. Previous was 1,323,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  1,482,000. Previous was 1,461,000

Modest gains in both Starts and Permits. Starts are affected by weather, permits are not and give a better indication of the direction home building is headed.

The short-term goal is to get to the 1,500,000 needed to keep past with population growth and units destroyed.  The underlying problem is that regulations prevent needs housing from being built.

Source:  Census Bureau. Details here: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/14/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.6%. Previous was 5.0%.

The index is based on the sales data of around 9,000 large general merchandise retailers.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

Industrial Production  (November 2019)

- Production month/month 1.1%. Previous was -0.9%
- Manufacturing month/month 1.1%. Previous was -0.7%
- Capacity Utilization Rate  77.3%. Previous was 76.6%

To a large extent IP number for the last few months reflect the effects of the GM strike.

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details here:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/

JOLTS  (October 2019)

- Job Openings 7,267,000. Previous was 7,032,000

The theme that the jobs markets is getting softer is contradicted by this report.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Details here:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Empire State Manufacturing Survey  (December 2019)

- General Business Conditions Index 5.3. Previous was 2.9.

This is a survey index of manufacturers in NY State.

Source:  N.Y. Federal Reserve Bank

PMI Composite Flash  (December 2019)

- Composite   52.2. Previous was 51.9
- Manufacturing  52.5. Previous was 52.2
- Services   52.2. Previous was 51.6

This is another survey index.

Source: IHS Markit

Housing Market Index  (December 2019)

- Housing Market Index  76. Previous was 70,

This is another survey index. It asks homebuilders their views of the economy in general and their ability to sell the home they are building.

Source:  National Association of Home Builders