Challenger Job-Cut Report  (November 2019)

- Announced Layoffs44,569. Previous was  50,275

Source: Challenger Gray & Christmas

Trade Deficit (October 2019)

- Deficit  $47.2 billion. Previous was $51.1 billion

Source:  Census Bureau

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 11/30/2019)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 203,000. Previous was 213,000
- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 216,737  a decrease of 35,676 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted217,750. Previous was 219,750

Source:  Labor Department

Factory Orders (October 2019)

- Factory Orders month/month +0.3%. Previous was -0.8%.

The modest increase follows two months of decrease.

Source:  Census Bureau

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/29/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +4.0%, and +4.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -16.0%. Previous weeks were +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -17.0%, +4.0%, +10.0%, +14.0%, -15.0%, -4.0%, +5.0%, and -7.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -9.2%. Previous weeks were +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, -0.1%, +0.6%, -11.9%, +0.5%, +5.2%, +8.1%, 10.1%, -0.1%, +2.0%, and -3.1%.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

ADP Private Jobs  (November 2019)

- Private Jobs 67,000. Previous was 140,000 

The good producing side of the economy continues to weaken.

Source:  ADP

PMI Services Index (November 2019)

- Level    51.6. Previous was 50.6
- PMI Composite Index 52.0. Previous was 50.9

This is a survey index.  500 companies are sent surveys.  The results are seasonally adjusted.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (November 2019)

- Composite Index 53.9. Previous was 54.7

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/30/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 7.9%. Previous was 4.4%.

The index is based on the sales data of around 9,000 large general merchandise retailers.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

PMI Manufacturing Index (November 2019)

- Level 52.6. Previous was   51.3

ISM Manufacturing Index (November 2019)

- ISM Manufacturing Index 48.1. Previous was  48.3

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

Construction Spending  (October 2019)

- Construction Spending month/month -0.8%. Previous was -0.3%
- Construction Spending year/year 1.1 %. Previous was -2.0%

The weakness in Construction Spending is, in  part, due to what is discussed in my magazine article
published today: https://www.scotsmanguide.com/browse/content/dont-repeal-the-law-of-supply-and-demand

Source:  Census Bureau

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/22/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, +5.0%, -3.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, and -4.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +4.0%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, +13.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -17.0%, +4.0%, +10.0%, +14.0%, -15.0%, -4.0%, +5.0%, -7.0%, and -8.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +1.5%. Previous weeks were -2.2%, +9.6%, -0.1%, +0.6%, -11.9%, +0.5%, +5.2%, +8.1%, 10.1%, -0.1%, +2.0%, -3.1%, and -6.2%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Durable Goods Orders  (October 2019)

- New Orders month/month  0.6%. Previous was -1.4%
- Ex-transportation month/month  0.6%. Previous was -0.4%
- Core capital goods month/month 1.2%. Previous was -0.5%

This data tends to be bouncy varying from month to month. Nonetheless, better than both previous and expectation.

Source:  Census Bureau. Details here: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

GDP (3rdQ 2019)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  2.1%. Previous was 1.9%
- Real Consumer Spending quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 2.9%. Previous was 2.9%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  1.7%. Previous was 1.7%

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 11/23/2019)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  213,000. Previous was 228,000
- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 252,397 an increase of 24,523 from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average 220,000. Previous was 221,000

The jobs market remains extremely strong. The previous time unemployment claims where this low was during the Vietnam War.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Corporate Profits 3rdQ2019

- After-tax Profits year/year -0.4%. Previous was +0.3%

Economic woes in the EU and South America continue to hurt U.S. corporations more than they hurt consumers.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis. Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/corporate-profits

Chicago PMI  (November 2019)

- Business Barometer Index  46.3. Previous was 43.2

Source: Institute For Supply Management - Chicago

Personal Income and Outlays  (October 2019)

- Personal Income month/month 0.0%. Previous was 0.3%
- Consumer Spending month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.2%
- PCE Price Index month/month  0.2%. Previous was 0.0%
- Core PCE price index month/month 0.1%. Previous was 0.0%
- PCE Price Index year/year 1.3%. Previous was 1.3%
- Core PCE price index year/year 1.6%. Previous was 1.7%

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis

Goods Trade Deficit (October 2019)

- Deficit $66.53 billion. Previous was $70.55 billion
- Exports % change -0.7%. Previous was -1.3%
- Imports % change -2.4%. Previous was -2.1%

Source:  Census Bureau

Retail Inventories  (October 2019)

- month/month  0.3%. Previous was +0.2%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP

Source:  Census Bureau

Wholesale Inventories  (October 2019)

- month/month  0.2%. Previous was -0.7%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP

Source:  Census Bureau

The advance inventory number show hope that the hits to the business components of GDP are subsiding.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/23/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.4%. Previous was 4.1%.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

Case-Shiller HPI (September 2019)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted, month/month 0.4%. Previous was +0.2%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted, month/month 0.1%. Previous was 0.0%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year 2.1%. Previous was 2.0%

FHFA House Price Index (September 2019)

- month/month 0.6%. Previous was 0.2%
- year/year 5.1%. Previous was 4.6%

This is for only SFR purchased with FHLMC/FNMA loans

 

New Home Sales  (October 2019)

- New Home Sales  seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 733,000. Previous was 738,000

Source:  Census and HUD

Consumer Confidence (November 2019)

- Consumer Confidence  125.5. Previous was 126.1

Source:  Conference Board

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November 2019)

- Level -1. Previous was 8

 

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index  (October 2019)

- Level  -0.71. Previous was -0.45
- 3 Month Moving Average -0.21. Previous was -0.21

This data is affected by the GM strike and by weakening economies in much of the rest of the world.
It most certainly shows that the possibility of recession in the next year has increased.
This is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (November 2019)

- Production Index -2.4. Previous was 4.5 
- General Activity Index  -1.3. Previous was -5.1

This is a regional index and again shows the business parts of GDP contracting.

PMI Composite Flash (November 2019)

- Composite 51.9. Previous was 51.2
- Manufacturing 52.2. Previous was 51.5
- Services 51.6. Previous was 51.0

Modest improvement in a fundamental which has been sluggish.

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

Consumer Sentiment (November 2019)

- Sentiment Index 96.8. Previous was 95.7

Modest improvement in a fundamental which has been sluggish.

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey Center

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/16/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 227,000. Previous was 227,000
- New Claims not seasonally adjusted  totaled 226,444 a decrease of 12,547 from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 221,000. Previous was 217,500

The jobs market remains boringly strong.  We have been around 220,000 since February 2018.

Source:  Department of Labor. Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (November 2019)

- General Business Conditions Index  10.4. Previous was 5.6

Existing Home Sales  (October 2019)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,460,000. Previous was 5,360,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month 1.9%. Previous was -2.5%
- Existing Home Sales year/year 4.6%. Previous was 3.5%

Source:  National Association of Realtors  Details:  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

Leading Economic Indicators (October 2019)

- Leading Indicators month/month -0.1%. Previous was-0.2%

This is the metric from the Conference Board and marks 3 consecutive months of decline. This is calculated from 10 components.

The decline in LEI is happening worldwide.

Source:   The Conference Board. Details: https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/15/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week +7.0%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -3.0%, +2.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, and -4.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were +13.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, -17.0%, +4.0%, +10.0%, +14.0%, -15.0%, -4.0%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, and +0.4%
- Composite Index Week/Week -2.2%. Previous weeks were +9.6%, -0.1%, +0.6%, -11.9%, +0.5%, +5.2%, +8.1%, 10.1%, -0.1%, +2.0%, -3.1%, -6.2%, and -0.9%

Purchase applications were up 7.0% year/year.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association