MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/16/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, +1.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, +10.0%, -2.0,-1.0%, and -2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +0.4%. Previous weeks were +37.0%, +12.0%, +0.1%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +47.0%, +6.0%, -6.0%, and +8.0%, and -1.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -0.9%. Previous weeks were +21.7%, +5.3%, -1.4%, -1.9%, -1.1%, -2.4%, -1.0%, +1.3%, -3.4%, +26.8%, +1.5%,-3.3%, and +2.4%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Existing Home Sales  (July 2019)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,420,000.  Previous was 5,290,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month  2.5%.  Previous was -1.3%
- Existing Home Sales year/year    0.6%.  Previous was -1.9%

Source:  National Association of Realtors

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/17/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.9%. Previous was 4.4%

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

Housing Starts  (July 2019)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,191,000. Previous was 1,241,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,336,000. Previous was 1,232,000

Housing Starts remain smothered by local land use regulation and zoning which prevent needed and wanted housing from being built.  This regulated lack of supply drives prices up making what does get built less affordable.

SFR Starts were +1.3% nationally.  Apartment (5+ units) were -17.2%. The only region with month/month gains in total starts was the West.

Source:  Census Bureau.  Details here:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment  (August- preliminary)

- Sentiment Index  92.1. Previous was 98.4

This is the survey index from the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center.  This is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next few months.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/10/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 220,000. Previous was 211,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 186,028  an increase of 6,151 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 213,750. Previous was 212,750

The Jobs Market remains vey strong.

Source:  Department of Labor

 

Retail Sales (July 2019)

- Retail Sales month/month 0.7%. Previous was +0.3%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month 1.0%. Previous was +0.3%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  0.9%. Previous was +0.6%

Looks as if the population was not properly informed of the impeding recession. To be serious one thing we have seen is an inability to forecast what consumers would do. Details are on page 4 of this https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Source:  Census Bureau

Productivity and Costs  (2ndQ2019)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 2.3%. Previous was 3.5%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  2.4%. Previous was 5.5%

Productivity is GDP/hours worked. For several years this data has been somewhat of a mystery because it is assumed that technology enables workers to produce more in a given time period.  The issue is that this is true from some industries but not others.  If added workers have low GDP/hour worked then the number is weaker.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Industrial Production  (July 2019)

- Production month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- Manufacturing month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.6%
- Capacity Utilization Rate     7.5%. Previous was 77.8%

Production includes utility output which is weather dependent especially in the middle of summer.  Manufacturing dipped.

Source:  Federal Reserve.  Details here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/

 

Business Inventories  (June 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.3%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau.  Details here https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index  (August 2019)

- Housing Market Index 66. Previous was  66.

This soft (survey based) data asking home builders how they feel about the economy in general and the housing market in particular.

Source:  National Association of Home Builders

CPI  (July 2019)

- CPI month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI year/year  1.8%. Previous was +1.6%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month  0.3%. Previous was +0.3%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year 2.2%. Previous was +2.1%

Year/year the largest percentage changes were in housing and medical care.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (July 2019)

- level 104.7. Previous was 103.3

Source:   NFIB Research Foundation

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/10/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.4%. Previous was 5.1%

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

PPI (Wholesale Inflation)  July 2019

- PPI-FD month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.1%
- PPI-FD year/year 1.7%. Previous was 1.7%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month -0.1%. Previous was 0.3%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 2.1%. Previous was 2.3%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month -0.1%. Previous was 0.0%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year +1.7%. Previous was 2.1%

Core wholesale prices which eliminate the volatile energy and food components are well contained and below expectations.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 8/3/2019)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 209,000. Previous was 217,000
- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 178,675 a decrease of 220 from the previous week
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 312,250. Previous was 212,000

The jobs market remains extremely strong.  

Source:  Department of Labor

 

Wholesale Trade  (June 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.4%

This is a component of 2nd Q 2019 GDP and this drop in this component will translate into a small decrease in the next estimate of 2nd Q GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/2/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week  -2.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -2.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, +1.0%, -1.0%, -4.0%, +10.0%, -2.0,-1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, and +4.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +12.0%. Previous weeks were +0.1%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, +3.0%, -4.0%, +47.0%, +6.0%, -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, and +1.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +5.3%. Previous weeks were -1.4%, -1.9%, -1.1%, -2.4%, -1.0%, +1.3%, -3.4%, +26.8%, +1.5%,-3.3%, +2.4%, -0.6%, and +2.7%

Four consecutive weeks of purchase application declines in the heart of home buying season is a bad sign.  Not enough people can afford to buy homes because limited supply has increased prices.  Home building is held back by land use regulation, zoning, permit difficulties, environmental impact reports and NIMBYism.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Redbook  Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/3/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.1%. Previous was 4.5%

These are comparisons of stores which have been open for at least a year. This omits sales from chain store which have closed in the past year and likely paints a too rosy picture.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

JOLTS  (June 2019)

- Job Openings 7,348,000. Previous was 7,384,000.

Job Openings may be plateauing but are still strong. The strong jobs market and low unemployment rate without increase in inflation is something which has defied previous beliefs and allowed the Fed to ease.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

PMI Services Index  (July 2019)

- Level   53.0. Previous was 51.5
- PMI Composite Index 52.6. Previous was 51.5.

Source:  Markit Economics

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index  (July 2019)

- Composite Index 53.7. Previous was 55.1

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

Both of these are supply side survey based metrics.  The fact that they point in opposite directions offers little.