Retail Sales (May 2019)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.5%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%

This is the most important component of GDP.

Industrial Production  (May 2019)

- Production month/month +0.4%. Previous was -0.4%
- Manufacturing month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.5%
- Capacity Utilization Rate  78.1%. Previous was 77.9%

The gains are nice but Production only offsets the previous month and Manufacturing falls short of doing that.

Business Inventories (April 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.5%. Previous was +0.1%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Consumer Sentiment  (June 1st Look)

- Sentiment Index   97.9. Previous was  100.0

This is the University of Michigan's Consumer survey index.

Retail Sales (May 2019)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.5%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%

This is the most important component of GDP.

Industrial Production  (May 2019)

- Production month/month +0.4%. Previous was -0.4%
- Manufacturing month/month +0.2%. Previous was -0.5%
- Capacity Utilization Rate  78.1%. Previous was 77.9%

The gains are nice but Production only offsets the previous month and Manufacturing falls short of doing that.

Business Inventories (April 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.5%. Previous was +0.1%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Consumer Sentiment  (June 1st Look)

- Sentiment Index   97.9. Previous was  100.0

This is the University of Michigan's Consumer survey index.

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 6/6/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 222,000. Previous was 219,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 219,892 an increase of 30,315 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 217,750. Previous was 215,250

The interesting thing is that media infer a 3,000 increase to 222,000 as a sign that the labor market is cooling. The labor market has been as healthy as ever. There are more Job Openings than people who are officially unemployed.  It used to be the case that 350,000 Initial Claims was neutral. It appears that a new standard of expectation has been set by the hot labor market.

Import and Export Prices (May 2019)

- Import Prices month/month -0.3%. Previous was 0.1%
- Export Prices month/month -0.2%. Previous was 0.1%
- Import Prices year/year -1.5%. Previous was -0.3%
- Export Prices year/year -0.7%. Previous was 0.2%

This indicated well contained inflation.  The effects of the tariffs on China are not in this data which was taken a week before the U.S. increased tariffs on some Chinese goods.

CPI (May 2019)

- CPI month/month 0.1%. Previous was 0.3%
- CPI year/year  1.8%. Previous was 2.0%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month 0.1%. Previous was 0.1%
- CPI less (less food & energy) year/year 2.0%. Previous was +2.1%

While CPI remains well contained the Fed has expressed concern that it wants it to remain near 2.0%. The Fed will use the notion that CPI is too low to justify a lower overnight rate and even expanding money supply.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/6/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week  +10.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0,-1.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +6.0%, +0.3%, and +4.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +47.0%. Previous weeks were +6.0%, -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, -11.0%, -8.0%, -11.0%, +39%, +12.0%., +4.0%, and -0.2%
- Composite Index Week/Week +26.8%. Previous weeks were  +1.5%,-3.3%, +2.4%, -0.6%, +2.7%, -4.3%, -7.3%, -3.5%, -5.6%, +18.6%, +8.9%, +1.6%, and +2.3%

Amazing what lower rates do for refinance applications.

PPI-FD (May 2019)

- PPI-FD month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD year/year 1.8%. Previous was +2.0%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month 0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 2.3%. Previous was +2.4%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year 2.3%. Previous was +2.2%

This is inflation at the wholesale level and there are no surprises here.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/8/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year +5.00. Previous was +5.8%

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (May 2019)

- level 105.0. Previous was 103.5

This is a survey-based index. Small business generate most jobs.

JOLTS   (April 2019)

- Job Openings 7,449,000. Previous was 7,474,000.

JOLTS is an acronym for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Lately Job Openings have exceeded the number of people unemployed. The number of unemployed in last Friday's BLS Jobs Report was 5,888,000. To some extent that measures a mismatch between Job Openings and the skills of those unemployed. 

The Jobs Market remains healthy.

Employment Situation Report (May 2019)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month seasonally adjusted +75,000. Previous was +224,000
- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month not seasonally adjusted +687,000. Previous was +1,078,000
- Unemployment Rate 3.6%. Previous was 3.6%
- Private Payrolls month/month 90,000. Previous was  205,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month 3,000. Previous was 5,000
- Labor Participation Rate  62.8%. Previous was 62.8%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.2 %. Previous was +0.2%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.1 %. Previous was +3.2%
- Average Workweek - All Employees  34.4 hours. Previous was 34.4 hours

The 2 previous months were revised down 75,000 making the corrected gain zero.

While I hate to beat the point to death this is another month is which the seasonal adjustment is 9 times the headline.  To be clear the seasonally adjusted data is more important and unlike adjustment to CPI the adjustments to jobs are transparent and calculated by a trusted computer program.  The question I always have is: are we measuring jobs or the accuracy of the seasonal adjustments?  Is it possible that the correct seasonal adjustment change with time?

There are 156,758,000 people working. The monthly jobs delta for the last 2 months is about 1/1,000 of that. 

All of that said the fact is that this data is what people pay the most attention to so it is important.

In any case this most certainly translated into no more Fed hikes and a higher probability of easing this year.

 

Wholesale Trade  (April 2019)

- Inventories month/month +0.8%. Previous -0.1%.

This is a component of 2ndQ2019 GDP.  Inventory growth had been weak so this is not surprising.

Challenger Job-Cut Report (May 2019)

- Announced Layoffs 58,577. Previous was 40,023

 

Trade Deficit (April 2019)

- Trade Deficit $50.8 billion. Previous was $51.9 billion

The Trade Deficit is a component of GDP.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/1/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 218,000. Previous was 218,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 188,697 a decrease of 10,397 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 215,000. Previous was 217,500

 

Worker Productivity and Costs (1stQ2019)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted annualized rate 3.4%. Previous was 3.6%
- Unit labor costs seasonally adjusted annualized rate -1.6%. Previous was -0.9%

A decrease in Unit Labor Costs does not reflect lower wages. It means getting things made at a lower cost. Decreases in Unit Labor Cost are disinflationary.

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 5/31/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week     -2.0%. Previous was -2.0%
- Refinance Index week/week 6.0%. Previous was +6.0%
- Composite Index week/week 1.5%. Previous was -3.3%

The Purchase Index indicates a housing market showing little activity. In too many places lack of supply has caused prices to rise making housing unaffordable.

The refi index will continue strong as rates fall.

ADP Private Jobs (May 2019)

- ADP private jobs 27,000. Previous was 271,000.

The technical expression for this is "kerchunk."  Let's see what Friday's BLS says.

PMI Services Index  (May 2019)

- Level   50.9. Previous was 53.0
- PMI Composite Index 50.9. Previous was 53.0

Yet another supply side indicator showing growth but at a vey small pace.

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index  (May 2019)

- Composite Index  56.9. Previous was  55.5

Just something to contradict the other supply side indicators.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/1/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.8%. Previous was 5.7%

Factory Orders (April 2019)

- Factory Orders month/month -0.8%. Previous was +1.3%.

This is a leading indicator.