Durable Goods Orders  (March  2020)

- New Orders month/month       -14.4%. Previous was 1.1%
- Ex-transportation month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.7%
- Core capital goods month/month 0.1%. Previous was -0.8%

The headline indicates that airlines are not ordering aircraft which is about as surprising as the sun rising in the east.  The other data are much better than expected.

Source:  Census   Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment  (April 2020)

- Sentiment Index  71.8. Previous was  71.0

This is a survey index which is supposed to indicate consumers intention of buying in the next few months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (March 2020)

- Level     -4.19. Previous was 0.16
- 3 Month Moving Average -1.47. Previous was -0.21

This is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.

Source:  Chicago Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/26/2020)

- New Claims  seasonally adjusted 3,283,000. Previous was 282,000
- New Claims , unadjusted, totaled 2,898,450 an increase of 2,647,034  from previous week.
- 4-week Moving Average  seasonally adjusted 998,250. Previous was 232,500

While this is higher than expected it is not exactly a surprise.  Jobless Claims go up by 11,642% and the Dow is up 800 at 7:51 AM PDT.

Source: Department of Labor.  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

GDP (4thQ2019)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  2.1%. Previous was 2.1%
- Real Consumer Spending quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.8%. Previous was 1.7%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  1.3%. Previous was 1.3%

This is the "final" estimate of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits

 

International Trade in Goods  (February 2020)

- Balance  $59.9 billion. Previous was $65.9 billion
- Exports % change 0.5%. Previous was -1.0%
- Imports % change -2.6%. Previous was -1.9%

Source:  Census Bureau 

Corporate Profits (4thQ2019)

- After-tax Profits year/year 4.1%. Previous was -1.1%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

Retail Inventories (February 2020)

- month/month -0.3%. Previous was -0.1%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

Wholesale Inventories (February 2020)

- month/month -0.5%. Previous was -0.5%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

BLS Employment Situation Report (February 2020)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month 273,000. Previous revised up to 273,000
Unemployment Rate   3.5%. Previous was 3.6%
Private Payrolls month/month 228,000. Previous was 222,000
Manufacturing Payrolls month/month 15,000. Previous was -20,000
Participation Rate   63.4%. Previous was 63.4%
Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.0%. Previous was 3.1%
Av Workweek - All Employees  34.4 hours. Previous was 34.3 hours

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics:  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

A detailed analysis of the report will be in my newsletter on Monday.

Trade Deficit (January 2020)

- Trade Deficit $45.3 billion. Previous was $46.9 billion

Source:  Census Bureau   Details:  https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html

 

Wholesale Trade  (January 2020)

- Inventories month/month -0.4%. Previous was -0.3%

This is a component of 1stQ2020 GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau   Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/index.html

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/29/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.9%. Previous was +5.4%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.2%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for. 

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/22/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.4%. Previous was +5.7%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.2%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  (December 2019)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month 0.4%. Previous was +0.5%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.1%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year 2.9%. Previous was 2.6%

 

FHFA House Price Index (December 2019)

- month/month 0.6%. Previous was 0.3%
- year/year 5.2%. Previous was 5.0%

These are prices of homes purchased with conforming limit loans.

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence  (February 2020)

- Consumer Confidence 130.7. Previous was 131.6

Source:  Conference Board

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (February 2020)

- Level -2.  Previous was 20.

This is a regional survey index.

Source:  Richmond Federal Reserve   Details:  https://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/14/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, and +5.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, and +13.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -6.4%. Previous weeks were +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, and +9.6%

The refi index tends to have a delayed reaction to rates.  The purchase index (unadjusted) is +16% year/year.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x262328

 

Housing Starts  (January 2020)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate  1,567,000. Previous was 1,626,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,551,000. Previous was 1,420,000

The gains were strong across the board.  SFR Starts were 987,000 seasonally adjusted, annualized. We need this to consistently stay above 1,500,000.  This is the first time since September

2006 that we have had starts above 1,500,000.

Source:  Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

PPI-FD  (January 2020)

- PPI-FD month/month  0.5%. Previous was +0.2%
- PPI-FD - Y/Y change  2.1%. Previous was +1.3%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month 0.5%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 1.7%. Previous was +1.2%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics  Derails:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

 

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/15/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.7%. Previous was +4.8%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.7%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey  (February 2020)

- General Business Conditions Index  12.9. Previous was 4.8

This measures the health of manufacturing in New York State.

Source:  New York Federal Reserve   Details:  https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2020/esms_2020_2_survey.pdf?la=en

Housing Market Index  (February 2020)

- Housing Market Index 74. Previous was 75

This is a survey index in which homebuilders rate the state of the economy in general and their ability to sell homes in particular.  The underlying reality in many places is that government restrictions on homebuilding have made homes unaffordable for many.  You can't sell homes if you can't build them.

Source:  National Association of Homebuilders

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  (January 2020)

- level  104.3. Previous was 102.7

This is a survey index of small businesses.

Source:  National Federation of Independent Business

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/8/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.8%. Previous was +5.7%.
- Same Store Sales month/month -0.7%. Previous was +0.2%

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc

 

JOLTS (December 2019)

- Job Openings  6,423,000 . Previous was 6,787,000

This has been trending downward since January 2019.  It is difficult to interpret this since it had increased to a record level and it still exceeds the U3 unemployment number which is

Source:  Labor Department  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (January 2020)

- Announced Layoffs 67,735. Previous was 32,843.

This is the highest in 11 months. Interestingly technology companies led in announced job cuts with 13,869.

Source: Challenger Gray & Christmas 
Details: http://www.challengergray.com/press/press-releases/2020-january-job-cut-report-job-cuts-surge-highest-level-11-months

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/2/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 202,000. Previous was 216,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 224,448 a decrease of 4,554 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 211,750. Previous was 214,750

The jobs market remains  very strong.

Source:  Department of Labor Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Productivity and Costs (4thQ2019)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 1.4%. Previous was -0.2%
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate  1.4%. Previous was 2.5%

Productivity is GDP/hours worked.  Unit Labor Cost varies by sector.  If unit labor costs are showing smaller gains in a tight market it is because more low skill jobs being added. Unit

Labor Costs in manufacturing were +5.9%. 

Source:  BLS