Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/12/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.1%. Previous was 5.7%.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

 

Import and Export Prices (September 2019)

- Import Prices month/month 0.2%. Previous was -0.2%
- Export Prices month/month 0.2%. Previous was -0.6%
- Import Prices year/year -1.6%. Previous was -1.8%
- Export Prices year/year -1.6%. Previous was -1.4%

In the long term this may be a picture of a slowing world economy with little inflationary pressure.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Sentiment  (October 2019 - early release)

- Sentiment Index 96.0. Previous was  93.2

Source:  University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center

CPI - Retail Inflation (September 2019)

- CPI month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI year/year  1.7%. Previous was +1.7%
- CPI less food & energy month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.3%
- CPI less food & energy year/year 2.4%. Previous was +2.4%

Lurking here is something I have written about but is not often discussed namely that the biggest fear the Fed has is not inflation but rather deflation. The Fed wants inflation at or

close to 2% and this report gives them license to ease again.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/5/2019)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 210,000. Previous was 220,000
- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 188,179 an increase of 15,222 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average -213,750. Previous was 212,750

The jobs market remains incredibly strong even as jobs growth slows and job openings slow.  One comment about the GM strike:  generally speaking striking workers are not entitled to unemployment benefits.  People who work for suppliers and are not striking but are laid off because of the strike are entitled to unemployment benefits.

Source:  Department of Labor

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/27/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%,-2.0%, -4.0%, and +2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +10.0%. Previous weeks were +14.0%, -15.0%, -4.0%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +0.4%, +37.0%, +12.0%, +0.1%, -2.0%, +2.0%, and -7.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +5.2%. Previous weeks were +8.1%, 10.1%, -0.1%, +2.0%, -3.1%, -6.2%, -0.9%, +21.7%, +5.3%, -1.4%,-1.9%, -1.1%, and -2.4%.

Refi volume, as always, is rate dependent.  Purchases continue to disappoint.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

JOLTS - Job Openings  (August 2019)

- Job Openings  7,200,000. Previous was 7,174,000

Jobs Openings continue to trend lower but are still higher than the U3 number of people unemployed which is 5,769,000. If the demand for labor is trending down it may portend flatter jobs growth but with unemployment at a 50 year low of 3.5% the effect should be lower pressure on wages and contained inflation.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wholesale Trade (August 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.2%. Previous was +0.2%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (September 2019)

- level 101.8. Previous was 1-3.1

This is a survey index. It asks small business owners 10 different questions.

Source: National Federation of Independent Business

PPI (Wholesale Inflation) September 2019

- PPI-FD month/month -0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD year/year 1.4%. Previous was +1.8%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month -0.3%. Previous was +0.3%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 2.0%. Previous was +2.3%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.4%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year 1.7%. Previous was +1.9%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/5/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.7%. Previous was 5.8%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

BLS Employment Situation Report (September 2019)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month, seasonally adjusted 136,000. Previous was 168,000
- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month, not seasonally adjusted 362,000. Previous was 418,000
- Revisions to July and August added 45,000 jobs making the net seasonally adjusted gain 181,000
- Unemployment Rate  3.5%. Previous was 3.7%
- Private Payrolls month/month 114,000. Previous was 122,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month -2,000. Previous was +2,000
- Labor Participation Rate  63.2%. Previous was 63.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.3%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year  2.9%. Previous was 3.2%
- Average  Workweek - All Employees 34.4 hours. Previous was 34.4 hours

Seasonally adjusted jobs growth continues at a pace just enough to accommodate growing population. Earnings flat. 

In September there were 158,269,000 people working. The problem I have with analysis of BLS is that the monthly delta in jobs is less that 1 part in 1,000 yet we draw conclusion from that.

It may make more sense to look at a 3 month moving average. It is clear that jobs growth is slowing and also worth noting that Job Openings have been declining since January.  Recessions or slow growth in the EU and South America are having adverse effects on GDP and Jobs in the U.S.

My detailed monthly analysis of the Employment Situation Report will appear in my RateWatch newsletter on Monday.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Trade Deficit (August 2019)

- Trade Deficit $54.9 billion. Previous was $54.0 billion

Source:  Census Bureau

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report (September 2019)

- Announced Layoffs  41,557. Previous was  53,480

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/28/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 219,000. Previous was 215,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 172,018 a decrease of 3,360 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 212,500. Previous was 215,000.

The jobs market remains very strong.

Source: Department of Labor

PMI Services Index  (September 2019)

- Level  50.9. Previous was 50.7
- PMI Composite Index  51.0. Previous was 50.7

Source: Markit Economics

Factory Orders (August 2019)

- Factory Orders month/month -0.1%. Previous was +1.4%

Lower after two months of growth.

Source:  Census Bureau

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (September 2019)

- Composite Index 52.6. Previous was 56.4

Source: Institute For Supply Management

Both soft data (PMI & ISM) and hard data (Factory Orders) show that the supply side of the economy is flat. Much of this has to do with recession and slow growth in the rest of the world.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/27/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +6.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -2.0%, -3.0%,-2.0%, -4.0%, +2.0%, and +1.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +14.0%. Previous weeks were -15.0%, -4.0%, +5.0%, -7.0%, -8.0%, +0.4%, +37.0%, +12.0%, +0.1%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, and -1.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +8.1%. Previous weeks were 10.1%, -0.1%, +2.0%, -3.1%, -6.2%, -0.9%, +21.7%, +5.3%, -1.4%,-1.9%, -1.1%, -2.4%, and -1.0%.

Refi volume, as always, is rate dependent.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

ADP Private Jobs (September 2019)

- ADP employment 135,000. Previous was  157,000

This should be a prelude to Friday's BLS Employment Situation Report but the correlation is generally erratic. We are looking at a non-farm workforce of about 164,000,000 but gauge the health of the jobs market by a change of about 1 part in 1,000. Doing so places a lot of faith in the BLS monthly headline.

Source:  ADP

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/28/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 5.8%. Previous was 5.2%.

Source:  Redbook Research Inc.

PMI Manufacturing Index  (September 2019)

- Level 51.1. Previous was 50.3

Source:  Markit Group

ISM Manufacturing Index (September 2019)

- ISM Manufacturing Index 47.8. Previous was 49.1.

Source: Institute For Supply Management

Construction Spending  (August 2019)

- Construction Spending month/month 0.1%. Previous was 0.0%
- Construction Spending year/year      -1.9%. Previous was -3.0%

Residential was +0.9% month/month and -1.9% year/year.

Source: Census Bureau

 

Chicago ISM (September 2019)

- Business Barometer Index 47.1. Previous was  50.4

This is a regional index and has been declining for the last year.

Source:   Institute For Supply Management - Chicago

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (September 2019)

- Production Index 13.9. Previous was 17.9  
- General Activity Index  1.5. Previous was 2.7

This tracks factory activity in Texas on a monthly basis.

Details here:  https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1909.aspx

Source:  Dallas Federal Reserve Bank