Durable Goods Orders  (March 2019)

- New Orders month/month  2.7%. Previous was -1.1%
- Ex-transportation month/month  0.4%. Previous was -0.2%
- Core capital goods month/month 1.3%. Previous was +0.1%

Core capital goods was +1.3%. The headline was made fat by aircraft orders which have large month-to-month variations.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/20/2019)

- Initial  Claims seasonally adjusted  230,000. Previous was 193,000
- Initial  Claims not seasonally adjusted  totaled 211,361 up 14,964  from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average  seasonally adjusted 206,000. Previous was 201,500

Some of the sizable increase may have to do with Easter.

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/19/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +1.0%, +3.0%, +6.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +1.7%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, and -2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -11.0%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, -11.0%, +39%, +12.0%., +4.0%, -0.2%, -2.0%, +5.0%, +6.4%, -0.1%, +0.3%, -6.0%, and -5.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -7.3%. Previous weeks were -3.5%, -5.6%, +18.6%, +8.9%, +1.6%, +2.3%, -2.5%, +5.3%, +3.6%, -3.7%, -2.5%, -3.0%, and -2.7%

What is interesting is that when rates dipped 5 weeks ago borrowers, presumably with the aid of the instant information available through the internet, were able to get refi application in immediately.

New Home Sales  (March 2019)

New Home Sales seasonally adjusted annualized rate 692,000. Previous was 662,000

FHFA House Price Index  (February 2019)

- month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.6%
- year/year 4.9%. Previous was 5.6%

Unless prices appreciate at a rate closer to increases in incomes fewer people will be able to afford to own a home.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/20/2019)

- Store Sales year/year 6.0%. Previous was 5.0%

This takes no account for chain store which have closed in the last year.

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index  (April 2019)

- level 3. Previous was 10.

Housing Starts (March 2019)

- Starts seasonally adjusted annualized rate 1,139,000. Previous was 1,142,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted annualized rate 1,269,000. Previous was 1,291,000

This is dismal. The single reason why starts are low is that land use regulations including zoning prevent housing from being built where jobs are being added.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/13/2019)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 192,000. Previous was 197,000
- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 195,374 a decrease of 796  from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 201,250. Previous was 207,250

Continuing claims were down 63,000. The jobs market remains very healthy.

 

Retail Sales (March 2019)

- Retail Sales month/month 1.6%. Previous was -0.2%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month 1.2%. Previous was -0.2%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  0.9%. Previous was -0.7%

Looking inside the details proves confusing. December was weak and this report shows recovery. While no one knows what lies ahead this certainly will provide a boost for estimated 1stQ GDP.  Retail Sales is the heart of GDP.

 

PMI Composite (April 2019)

- Composite    52.8. Previous was 54.3
- Manufacturing  52.4. Previous was 52.5
- Services   52.9. Previous was 54.8

This is a survey index but usually a reliable Leading Indicator. These numbers indicate weakness in the near future.

 

Business Inventories  (February 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.9%

This is a component of 1stQ2019 GDP.

Leading Indicators (March 2019)

- Leading Indicators month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.1%

This is regarded as a reliable harbinger of recession.  December and January were weak but two months of improved LEI should decrease concern about recession in the next 6 months.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/12/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, +6.0%, +0.3%, +4.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +1.7%, -6.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and +9.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -8.0%. Previous weeks were -11.0%, +39%, +12.0%., +4.0%, -0.2%, -2.0%, +5.0%, +6.4%, -0.1%, +0.3%, -6.0%, -5.0%, and +19.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -3.5%. Previous weeks were -5.6%, +18.6%, +8.9%, +1.6%, +2.3%, -2.5%, +5.3%, +3.6%, -3.7%, -2.5%, -3.0%, -2.7%, and +13.5%

Refinance applications had a 2-week surge and have backed off a bit. Purchase applications remain flat.

Trade Deficit (February 2019)

- Deficit $49.4 billion. Previous was $51.1 billion

This is the lowest deficit since June 2018.

Wholesale Inventories (February 2019)

-Wholesale Trade 0.2%. Previous was 1.2%

This is a component of 1stQ2019 GDP.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/13/2019)

- Store Sales year/year 5.0%. Previous was 4.8%

Industrial Production (March 2019)

- Production month/month       -0.1%. Previous was +0.1%
- Manufacturing month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.3%
- Capacity Utilization Rate  78.8%. Previous was 78.2%

In a word - sluggish.

Housing Market Index  (April 2019)

- Housing Market Index 63. Previous was 62.

This is a survey index from the National Association of Home Builders. It assesses how confident homebuilders are about the economy in general and the housing market in particular.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (April 2019)

- General Business Conditions Index  10.1. Previous was 3.8

This is a relic from when the State of New York was a major contributor to manufacturing.

Import and Export Prices  (March 2019)

- Import Prices month/month 0.6%. Previous was +1.0%
- Export Prices month/month 0.7%. Previous was +0.7%
- Import Prices year/year 0.0%. Previous was -0.8%
- Export Prices year/year 0.6%. Previous was +0.3%

 

Consumer Sentiment  (April 2019)

- Sentiment 96.9. Previous 98.4

This is the index from the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center.  It is supposed to forecast consumer spending in the next few months.

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 4/6/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 196,000. Previous was 204,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 195,480  an increase of 11,679 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 207,000. Previous was 214,000

This is the fist time since 1969 that Claims were below 200,000.  At that time the labor force was half its present size.

PPI-FD  (March 2019)

- PPI-FD month/month 0.6%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD year/year 2.2%. Previous was +1.9%
- PPI-FD less food & energy month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food & energy year/year 2.4%. Previous was 2.5%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.1%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services year/year 2.0%. Previous was 2.3%

This is higher than expected. Higher wholesales prices do not always translate into higher retail prices especially when corporate profits are high.