Import and Export Prices (January 2019)

- Import Prices month/month -0.5%. Previous was -1.0%
- Export Prices month/month -0.6%. Previous was -0.6%
- Import Prices year/year -1.7%. Previous was -0.6%
- Export Prices year/year -0.2%. Previous was 1.1%

Excluding oil. import prices were -0.7%.  Inflation - the enemy of borrowers and folks in the mortgage business is well contained.

Industrial Production  (January 2019)

- Production month/month -0.6%. Previous was +0.1%
- Manufacturing month/month -0.9%. Previous was +0.8%
- Capacity Utilization Rate  78.2%. Previous was 78.8%

Consumer Sentiment  (February 2019)

- Sentiment Index   95.5. Previous was 91.2 

This is the survey index from the University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center. It is supposed to be a measure of Consumer Spending in the next few months. 

Empire State Manufacturing Survey  (February 2019)

- General Business Conditions Index 8.8. Previous was 3.9

This is a survey of manufacturers in New York State.

 

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 2/9/2019)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 239,000. Previous was 235,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 242,257 a decrease of 12,079 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average 231,750. Previous was 225,000

PPI (January 2019)

- PI month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.1%
- PPI core (less food & energy) month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.0%
- PPI-FD less food, energy & trade services month/month +0.2%. Previous was 0.0%

Retail Sales  (December 2018)

- Retail Sales month/month -1.2%. Previous was  +0.1%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month -1.8%. Previous was +0.0%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month -1.4%. Previous was +0.5%

While some of the dip may have been due to the partial government shutdown this report shows weaker 4thQ GDP and certainly should stop any Fed hikes this year.

Business Inventories  (November 2019)

- Inventories month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.6%

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/9/2019)

- Purchase Index week/week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +9.0%, +17.0%. -8.2%, -7.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +9.0%, +3.0%, -2.3%, and -5.0%,
- Refinance Index Week/Week -0.1%. Previous weeks were +0.3%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +19.0%,+35.0%, -12.3%, -2.0%, +2.0%, +6.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, -4.3%, and -3.0%,
- Composite Index Week/Week -3.7%. Previous weeks were -2.5%, -3.0%, -2.7%, +13.5%, +23.5%, -8.5%, -5.8%, +1.6%, +2.0%, +5.5%, -0.1%. -3.2%, and -4.0%.

CPI (January 2019)

- CPI month/month 0.0%. Previous was 0.0%
- CPI year/year 1.6%. Previous was 2.0%
- CPI less food & energy month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- CPI less food & energy year/year 2.2% . Previous was 2.2%

This make 3 consecutive months of no change in overall CPI.  Energy prices were down and core was up but well-contained. This is a signal that the Fed will likely not hike the overnight rate in the near future.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Business Inflation Expectations  (February 2019)

- Business Inflation Expectation year/year 1.9%. Previous was +2.0%

 

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (January 2019)

level  101.2. Previous was 104.4

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/9/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 4.6%. Previous was 5.7%

JOLTS  (December 2018)

- Job Openings 7,335,000. Previous was 7,116,000

There are now 1,428,000 more Job Openings than there are people looking for work.

February 7, 2019

 

Initial Jobless Claims week ended 2/2/2019

- Initial Jobless Claims seasonally adjusted   234,000. Previous was 253,000
- Initial Jobless Claims not seasonally adjusted  totaled 253,410  an increase of 2,589 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 224,750. Previous was 220,250

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/1/2019)

- Purchase Index week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -2.0%, +9.0%, +17.0%. -8.2%, -7.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +9.0%, +3.0%, -2.3%, -5.0%, and -2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +0.3%. Previous weeks were -6.0%, -5.0%, +19.0%,+35.0%, -12.3%, -2.0%, +2.0%, +6.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, -4.3%, -3.0%, and -4.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -2.5%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -2.7%, +13.5%, +23.5%, -8.5%, -5.8%, +1.6%, +2.0%, +5.5%, -0.1%. -3.2%, -4.0%, and -2.5%

Severe winter weather and the NFL playoffs limit activity at this time of year.  Now that the Super Bowl is over people can spend some of their weekend looking at homes.

Trade Deficit (November 2018)

- Trade Balance Level $49.3 billion.  Previous was $55.7 billion.

Two factors which lowered the deficit were lower oil prices and a sizable drop in cell phone imports.

Worker Productivity and Costs (4thQ2018)

Not published consequent to partial shutdown.

February 5, 2019

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/2/2019)

- Store Sales year/year 5.7%. Previous was 5.8%

PMI Services Index (January 2019)

- Level  54.2. Previous was 54.4
 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (January 2019)

- Composite Index 56.7. Previous was 58.0

February 4, 2019

Factory Orders (November 2018)

- Factory Orders month/month -0.6%. Previous was -2.1%

BLS Employment Situation Report (January 2019)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month 304,000. Previous was 222,000
- Unemployment Rate 4.0 %. Previous was 3.9%
- Private Payrolls month/month 296,000. Previous was  206,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month 13,000. Previous was 20,000 
- Participation Rate - level 63.2 %. Previous was 62.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.4%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.2%. Previous was 3.2%
- Average Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hours. Previous was 34.5 hours

The civilian non-institutional population declined by over 600,000. The Labor Force declined by 11,000. 175,000 Federal government workers reported being on temporary layoff.

PMI Manufacturing Index (January 2019)

- Level  54.9. Previous was  53.8

ISM Manufacturing Index (January 2019)

- Index 56.6. Previous was 54.3

Construction Spending (November 2018)

- Construction Spending month/month +0.8%. Previous was -0.1 % 
- Construction Spending year/year +4.9%

Consumer Sentiment (January 2019)

- Sentiment Index 91.2. Previous was  90.7

This is the  University of Michigan Index.

Wholesale Trade (November 2018)

- Inventories month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.9%

This is a component of 4thQ2018 GDP.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/25/2019)

- Purchase Index week/Week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, +9.0%, +17.0%. -8.2%, -7.0%, +3.0%, +1.0%, +9.0%, +3.0%, -2.3%, -5.0%, -2.0%, and +2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +19.0%,+35.0%, -12.3%, -2.0%, +2.0%, +6.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, -4.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, and +10.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -2.7%, +13.5%, +23.5%, -8.5%, -5.8%, +1.6%, +2.0%, +5.5%, -0.1%. -3.2%, -4.0%, -2.5%, and +4.9%

Generally the purchase market restarts the week after the Super Bowl.  That would appear here in three weeks.

ADP Private Jobs (January 2019)

- Private jobs  213,000. Previous was 263,000

 

GDP  (4thQ2018)

Delayed due to shutdown.  Still no updated release date from BEA.

Pending Home Sales (December 2018)

- Pending Home Sales Index month/month -2.2%. Previous was -0.9%