Chicago PMI  (August 2015)

- Business Barometer  54.4. Previous was 54.7.  

 

Dallas Federal Manufacturing Survey (August 2015)

- General Activity Index -15.8. Previous was -4.6

This Index has been depressed lately by the temporary shut down of so many oil rigs. The 3 previous months were -20.0, -7.0, and -4.6.  The -15.8 was well below consensus.

Personal Income and Outlays (July 2015)

- Personal Income month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%. 

- Consumer Spending  month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.3%  

- PCE Price Index month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%

- Core PCE price index  month/month  +0.1%. Previous was +0.1% 

- PCE Price Index year/year  +0.3%. Previous was +0.3%

- Core PCE price index year/year  +1.2%. Previous was +1.3%.

What we have is contained inflation and modest increases in Personal Income and Outlays.

 

Consumer Sentiment  (August 2015)

- Sentiment Index  91.9. Previous was 92.9.

This is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.  This is supposed to be a leading indicator of Consumer Spending. 

GDP (2ndQ2015)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +3.7%. Previous estimate was +2.3%. Previous quarter was +0.6% 

- GDP price index quarter/quarter seasonally adjusted, annualized +2.1%. Previous was revised down from +2.0% to +0.1%.

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 8/22/2015)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 271,000. Previous was 277,000

- New Claims, unadjusted, totaled 226,855 a decrease of 2,396 previous

- 4-week Moving Average  seasonally adjusted 272,500. Previous was 271,500.

 

Corporate Profits (2ndQ2015)

- After-tax Profits year/year  +7.3%. Previous was +9.0%

 

Pending Home Sales Index (July 2015)

- Pending Home Sales Index  110.9. Previous was 110.4.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/21/2015)

- Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%, +0.8%, -0.1%, +1.0%, -8.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, and +1.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +7.0%, +3.0%, +6.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, and -12.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +0.2%. Previous weeks were +3.6%, -0.1%, +0.8%, -1.9%, +4.6%, -4.7%, +1.6%, -5.5%, +8.4%, -7.6%, -1.6%, and -1.5%.

Purchase applications are +18.0% year over year.

 

Durable Goods Orders  (July 2015)

- New Orders month/month +2.0%. Previous was +4.1%.

- New Orders year/year   -19.6%. Previous was -2.8%

- Ex-transportation month/month +0.6%. Previous was +1.0%

- Ex-transportation year/year   -2.5%. Previous was -4.5%

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/22/2015)

- Store Sales year/year +1.7%. Previous was +1.6%

 

FHFA House Price Index (June 2015)

- month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.5% - year/year   +5.6%. Previous was +5.7% 

 

S&P Case-Shiller HPI  (June 2015)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month -0.1%.  Previous was -0.1%

- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month +1.0%.  Previous was +1.1%

- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year  +5.0%.  Previous was +5.0%.

Home price appreciation is modest especially given the low inventories.  Toughened mortgage qualification standards have restrained buyers.  This is not a bad thing.  The housing bubble was the result of making mortgages to folks who could not afford the payments.

 

PMI Services Flash  (August 2015)

- Level  55.2. Previous was 55.2 

 

New Home Sales  (July 2015)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized   507,000. Previous was 481,000.

 

Consumer Confidence  (August 2015)

- Consumer Confidence 101.5. Previous was 91.0 

This is the metric from The Conference Board.

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index  (August 2015)

- Level  0. Previous was 13. 

 

 

Chicago Federal National Activity Index (July 2015)   

 

- Level +0.34. Previous was -0.07 

- 3 Month Moving Average  +0.00. Previous was  -0.08.

This is a weighted index using 85 different components.

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (August 2015)

- Level  52.9. Previous was 53.8.

We may be seeing the negative effect that the stronger US $ is having on exports.

 

Jobless Claims (week ended 8/15/2015)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted  277,000. Previous was 273,000

- New Claims  unadjusted 229,674  a decrease of 9,652 from previous

- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted   271,500. Previous was 266,000

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (August 2015)

- General Business Conditions Index  8.3. Previous was 5.7 

 

Existing Home Sales (July 2015)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized  5,590,000. Previous was 5,480,000.

Existing Home Sales is at an 8 year high.

 

Leading Indicators (July 2015)

- Leading Indicators month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.6%.

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/14/2015)

- Purchase Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -4.0%, +3.0%, +0.8%, -0.1%, +1.0%, -8.0%, +7.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%. -4.0%, +10.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, and -4.0%.

- Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, +6.0%, +2.0%, -1.0%, +4.0%, +3.0%, -5.0%, +2.0%, -7.0%, +7.0%, -12.0%, and -4.0%.

- Composite Index Week/Week +3.6%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, +0.8%, -1.9%, +4.6%, -4.7%, +1.6%, -5.5%, +8.4%, -7.6%, -1.6%, -1.5%, and -3.5%.

Purchase applications are +19.0% year over year.

 

Consumer Price Index  (July 2015)

- CPI month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.3% - CPI year/year   +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.1%. Previous was +0.2%

- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year  +1.8%. Previous was +1.8%.

Inflation remains contained and the core numbers are close to the Fed's target for 2% inflation.

 

 

Housing Starts  (July 2015)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized   1,206,000. Previous was 1,204,000

- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized  1,119,000. Previous was 1,337,000.

Housing Starts are in units. Single family housing starts are up only 1.1% year on year.

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/15/2015)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.9%.