Consumer Price Index (September 2015)
- CPI month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
- CPI year/year +0.0%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI core (less food & energy) month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI core (less food & energy) year/year +1.9%. Previous was +1.8%.
In the big picture inflation is tame. The overall number is bouncy because of the variation in gasoline prices. The areas of expense showing the largest increases in September are food (both at home and restaurants), rent, owner equivalent rent (home prices) and motor vehicle insurance. Rent and insurance increases are sticky. Food and energy price changes are not sticky.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/10/2015)
- New Claims seasonally adjusted 255,000. Previous was 262,000
- Initial claims unadjusted, totaled 255,059, an increase of 27,883 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average 265,000. Previous was 267,250
Philadelphia Federal Business Outlook Survey (October 2015)
- General Business Conditions Index -4.5. Previous was -6.0.
This is a survey index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This is the second consecutive month of contraction.
Industrial Production (September 2015)
- Production month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.1%
- Manufacturing month/month -0.1%. Previous was -0.4%
- Capacity Utilization Rate 77.5%. Previous was 77.8%
Industrial Production has decline in 8 of the past 9 months. Industrial Production includes mining and also electricity generation and much of the change over the 9 month period is due to oil well shut-downs. In September there was a spike upward due to increased electricity usage due to warmer weather. Nonetheless, manufacturing is down.
JOLTS (August 2015)
- Job Openings 5,370,000. Previous was 5,668,000.
The JOLTS report is the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. JOLTS has had steady improvement since August 2009. Whether the drop for August is a trend or a blip remains to be seen. However, this coupled with the weak BLS Employment Situation Report of 2 weeks ago argues against the Fed hiking the Fed Funds target.
Consumer Sentiment (October 2015)
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 92.1. Previous was 87.2.
No matter what else may be happening consumers continue to report that they will spend more money in the next 90 days. It is my belief that much of this is a reaction to gasoline prices which are conspicuously posted everywhere.
Posted at 08:08 AM in Mortgage Market Daily Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)
Reblog (0)