Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/24/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 215,000. Previous was 227,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 192,440 a decrease of 5,611 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average 224,500. Previous was 225,000

 

 

Personal Income and Outlays (February 2018)

- Personal Income month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%
- Consumer Spending month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.2%
- PCE Price Index month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.4%
- Core PCE price index month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.3%
- PCE Price Index year/year +1.8%. Previous was +1.7%
- Core PCE price index year/year +1.6%. Previous was +1.5%

The Savings Rate rose from 3.2% to 3.4%.

 

 

Chicago PMI (March 2018)

- Business Barometer Index 57.4. Previous was 61.9

This is the slowest rate of growth in the past year for this index.

 

 

 

Consumer Sentiment (March 2018)

- Sentiment Index 101.4. Previous was 102.0

This is the University of Michigan Index.

 

GDP (4thQ2017)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 2.9%. Previous was +2.5%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate % 2.3%. Previous was +2.3%
- Real Consumer Spending quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted annualized rate 4.0%. Previous was +3.8%

Consumers did a lot of Christmas shopping and 4thQ was strong. If consumers did this with credit cards of savings we may see weak 1stQ2018 Consumer Spending.

 

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/23/2018)

 

- Purchase Index Week/Week +3.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -6.0%, -6.0%, +0.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, +5.0%, +1.0%, and -6.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +4.0%, +11.0%, -7.0%, and -3.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week +4.8%. Previous weeks were -1.1%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +2.7%, -6.6%, -4.1%, +0.7%, -2.6%, +4.5%, +4.1%, +8.3%, and -2.8%.

 

Pending Home Sales (February 2018)

- Pending Home Sales Index month/month 3.1%. Previous was -5.0%

 

 

 

Goods Trade Deficit

- Deficit $75.4 Billion. Previous was $75.3 Billion
- Exports % change +2.2%. Previous was -2.4%
- Imports % change +1.4%. Previous was -0.2%

Trade Deficits subtract from GDP.

 

 

Retail Inventories (February 2018)

- month/month change +0.4%. Previous was +0.7%

This is a GDP component.

 

Wholesale Inventories (March 2018)

- month/month change +1.1%. Previous was +1.0%

 

 

Corporate Profits (4thQ2017)

- After-tax Profits year/year -6.0%. Previous was +9.8%

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/24/2018)

- Store Sales year/year +3.6%. Previous was +3.2%

 

 

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (January 2018)

- 20-city, seasonally adjusted month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.7%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted month/month month/month +0.3%. Previous was +0.2%
- 20-city, not seasonally adjusted year/year +6.4%. Previous was +6.3%

Home prices are not showing any sign of slowing their growth.

 

 

Consumer Confidence (March 2018)

- Consumer Confidence 127.7. Previous was 130.0

This is the index from the Conference Board.

 

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (March 2018)

- Level 15. Previous was 28

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (February 2018)

 

- Level 0.88. Previous was +0.02
- 3 Month Moving Average +0.37. Previous was 0.16

This is composed of 85 other monthly indicators and is supposed to measure supply-side health.

 

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (March 2018)

- Production Index 12.7. Previous was 27.9
- General Activity Index 21.4. Previous was 37.2

Still growing but at a slower pace in Texas.

Durable Goods Orders (February 2018)

- New Orders month/month +3.1%. Previous was -3.5%
- New Orders year/year Change +1.2%. Previous was -0.2%
- Ex-transportation year/year +8.1%. Previous was +7.1%
- Core capital goods month/month +1.8%. Previous was -0.4%
- Core capital goods year/year +8.0%. Previous was +6.2%

The month/month data is largely recovery from January but the year/year shows a healthy increase which is a plus for manufacturing, building, and transportation.

 

 

New Home Sales (February 2018)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 618,000. Previous was 622,000

 

This number has been increasing since July 2011. The problem at present is that homes are not being built where jobs are being created leading to large increases in Existing Home Sales in places such as the San Francisco Bay Area.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/17/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 229,000. Previous was 226,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 198,473 a decrease of 6,389 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 223,750. Previous was 221,500

 

 

 

FHFA House Price Index (January 2018)

- month/month +0.8%. Previous was +0.4%
- year/year +7.3%. Previous was +6.7%

Headed in the wrong direction. This is data on the prices of homes purchased with conforming loans.

 

 

PMI Composite Flash (March 2018)

- Composite 54.3. Previous was 55.9
- Manufacturing 55.7. Previous was 55.9
- Services 54.1. Previous was 55.9

This supply side indicator continues to show growth but at a slower pace.

 

Leading Indicators (February 2018)

- Leading Indicators month/month +0.6%. Previous was +0.8%

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/16/2018)

 

- Purchase Index Week/Week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -1.0%, +6.0%, -6.0%, -6.0%, +0.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, +5.0%, +1.0%, -6.0%, and -1.0%.
- Refinance Index Week/Week -5.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -2.0%, -1.0%, -7.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, +1.0%, +4.0%, +11.0%, -7.0%, -3.0%, and -3.0%.
- Composite Index Week/Week -1.1%. Previous weeks were +0.9%, +0.3%, +2.7%, -6.6%, -4.1%, +0.7%, -2.6%, +4.5%, +4.1%, +8.3%, -2.8%, and -4.9%.

 

Existing Home Sales (February 2018)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized 5,540,000. Previous was 5,380,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month +3.0%. Previous was -3.2%
- Existing Home Sales year/year 1.1 %. Previous was -4.8%

The gain is good but the last release of Peding Home Sales was down.

 

The FOMC announcement regarding the Fed Funds target is at 11:00 AM PDT. A 25 bps hike is expected.

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/17/2018)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +3.2%. Previous was +2.9%

This data does not account for Chain Store closings.

Housing Starts (February 2018)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,236,000. Previous was 1,329,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.298,000. Previous was 1,322,000

Single-family Starts was up, 5+ was down. The mid-West was up and all other geographic sectors were down. The big month/month hit was to apartment buildings but January had a large increase so the month/month drop may be more about January's strength than February's weakness.

 

Industrial Production (February 2018)

- Production month/month +1.1%. Previous was -0.3%
- Manufacturing month/month +1.2%. Previous was -0.2%
- Capacity Utilization Rate 78.1%. Previous was 77.4%

The headline IP number is excellent compromised a bit by the fact that January was revised down to -0.3%. IP include utility production which is weather dependent. The +1.2% manufacturing is very healthy. Let's see if that gain can hold.

 

 

Consumer Sentiment (March 2018)

- Sentiment Index 102.0. Previous was 99.7

This is the University of Michigan's metric and the 102.00 is a 14 year high. Let's see if consumers actually start increasing spending.

 

 

JOLTS (January 2018)

- Job Openings 6,312,000. Previous was 5,667,000.

This is a record high.

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/10/2018)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 226,000. Previous was 230,000
- New Claims, unadjusted, totaled 204,591 a decrease of 20,922 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 221,500. Previous was 222,250

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (March 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index 22.3. Previous was 25.8

 

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Housing Market Index (March 2018)

- General Business Conditions Index 22.5. Previous was 13.1

 

Import and Export Prices (February 2018)

- Import Prices month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.8 %
- Export Prices month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.8 %
- Import Prices year/year +3.5%. Previous was +3.4%
- Export Prices year/yea +3.3%. Previous was +3.3%

 

 

 

Housing Market Index (March 2018)

- Housing Market Index 70. Previous was 71

This is from a survey of home builders and according to The National Association of Home Builders they remain a confident lot.