Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report.

 

- Headline Nonfarm jobs was +120,000.
- Unemployment Rate was down at 8.2% in compared to 8.3% in February 2012
- Average hourly wage $23.39 up from $23.34 in February 2012
- Average work week was 34.5 hours down from 34.6 in February 2012
- Private jobs were +121,000. Government jobs were -1,000

 

Reading beneath the surface:

 

-Good producing jobs were +31,000. The 3 previous months were +20,000, +78,000 and +48,000.

 

-The size of the civilian labor force fell from 154,871,000 to 154,707,000 a decline of 164,000. This explains why the Unemployment rate went down.

 

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult non-institutionalized population who are part of the labor force) fell to 63.8% from 63.9%. It was 64.2% a year ago. This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. Some of this is structural and some is cyclical.

 

- the size of the civilian population rose by 179,000 in March. With a labor participation rate of 63.8% 108,000 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 12,000 more jobs than that.

 

According to the 4 week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims 1,447,000 people lost their jobs in the last 4 weeks. That normalizes to 1,567,500 lost jobs in a calendar month (there are about 13 4 week periods in a 12 month year.) This is down from the previous month's 1,637,000 lost jobs/month.

 

If 1,567,500 people lost their jobs last month and we gained 121,000 jobs, how did that happen? The answers are in the Household Survey.

 

In March 2012 BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

 

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 7,080,000 down 189,000 from February's Job Losers and down 1,224,000 from February 2012.

 

-Job leavers was 1,117,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This was up 86,000 from previous month and up 227,000 from February 2011.

 

-Reentrants was 3,269,000. Reentrants are people who were looking for a job a found one. This was -92,000 from previous month and -9,000 from February 2011.

 

-New entrants were 1,433,000. These are unemployed persons who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was +41,000 from previous month and +98,000 from February 2011.

 

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

 

- 120,000 more people are working

 

- 164,000 fewer people are in the civilian labor force

 

- 189,000 fewer people lost their jobs

 

- 86,000 more people left their jobs

 

- 92,000 fewer reentrants obtained jobs.

 

 

---

Dick Lepre

dicklepre@rpm-mtg.com
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
1400 Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94109
CA DRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
California Department of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Comments

[Mike Hall]

Lepre’s rule says, “In the short run rubes make the markets. In the longer run, investors pick up rubes’ money.” Restated... "Money always returns to its rightful owner."

[John Rowe]

"Burking demand and lading prices?"
Otherwise, excellent as always.
Thank you, Dick

[Dick Lepre; San Francisco, CA]

John, "Burking demand and lading prices" is Grauer not me. He is a guy you don't want to play Scrabble with.