Goods Trade Deficit  (January 2010)

- Balance  $65.5 billion.  Previous was $68.7 billion
- Exports % change -1.0%.  Previous was +0.9%
- Imports % change -2.2%.  Previous was +3.1%

There is a lot going on here:  strong US$ discourages exports, weak economies in major trading partners discourages exports, closing of plants in China discourages imports.

Source:  Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/advance_report.pdf

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (January 2020)

- Personal Income month/month 0.6%.  Previous was 0.1%
- Consumer Spending month/month 0.2%.  Previous was 0.4%
- PCE Price Index month/month 0.1%.  Previous was 0.3%
- Core PCE price index month/month 0.1%.  Previous was 0.2%
- PCE Price Index year/year  1.7%.  Previous was 1.5%
- Core PCE price index year/year 1.6%.  Previous was 1.5%

Disposable Personal Income was also +0.6%.  This is a strong print of a number which tends to be bouncy month-to-month.  PCE is an inflation metric showing well contained inflation.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2020

 

Retail Inventories (January 2020)

- month/month 0.0%. Previous was -0.1%

This is a component of 1stQ2020 GDP.

 

Wholesale Inventories (January 2020)

- month/month -0.2%. Previous was -0.3%

This is a component of 1stQ2020 GDP.

 

Chicago PMI  (February 2020)

- Business Barometer Index  49.0

Source:  Institute For Supply Management - Chicago

 

Consumer Sentiment  (February 2020)

- Sentiment Index 101.0. Previous was  99.8.

Source:  University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center  Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Durable Goods Orders (January 2020)

- New Orders month/month -0.2% . Previous was 2.4 %
- Ex-transportation month/month +0.9%. Previous was -0.1 % 
- Core capital goods month/month +1.1%. Previous was -0.9%

This data is bouncy from month to month.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

GDP  (4thQ2019)

- Real GDP quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 2.1%. Previous estimate was
- Real Consumer Spending quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.7%. Previous estimate was 1.8%
- GDP price index quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1.3%. Previous estimate was 1.4%

This is the second estimate of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis   Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/22/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 219,000. Previous was 210,000
- New Claims seasonally unadjusted, totaled 199,093 a decrease of 10,245  from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 209,750 . Previous was 209,250

The jobs market remains very strong.

Source:  Labor Department  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (January 2020)

- Pending Home Sales Index month/month +5.2%. Previous was -4.9%

Source:  National Association of Realtors

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/21/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week +6.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, and +7.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, and -8.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +1.5%. Previous weeks were -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, and -2.2%

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x262328

 

New Home Sales  (January 2020)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 764,000, Previous was 694,000.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (January 2020)

- Level           -0.25. Previous was -0.51
- 3 Month Moving Average -0.09. Previous was -0.23

This is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.

Source:  Chicago Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index

Dallas Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey  (February 2020)

- Production Index 16.4. Previous was 10.5   
- General Activity Index 1.2. Previous was -0.2.

This is s survey index of businesses in Texas.

Source:  Dallas Federal Reserve

PMI Composite (early estimate February 2020)

- Composite  49.6. Previous was 53.1
- Manufacturing 50.8. Previous was 51.7
- Services  49.4. Previous was 53.2

Weakness in the composite indicates the first contraction of output since October 2013. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Source:  Markit Economics  Details: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2ea84928c5d74262bbe387ec2b19d337

 

Existing Home Sales (January 2020)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 4,850,000. Previous was 5,540,000.

What happened? Sales of existing home in the west fell 9.4%.

Source:  National Association of Realtors  Details:  https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-drop-1-3-in-january

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/15/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 210,000. Previous was 206,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 208,305 a decrease of 11,296  from  previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 209,000. Previous was 212,250

The jobs market remains very strong

Source:  Department of Labor  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (February 2020)

- General Business Conditions Index  36.7. Previous was 17.0

Source:  Philadelphia Federal Reserve

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (January 2020)

- Leading Indicators month/month  0.8%. Previous was -0.3%

This is a composite of 10 forward looking metrics.  It is supposed to forecast economic change in the next 6 months.

Source:  The Conference Board

Retail Sales  (January 2020)

- Retail Sales month/month   0.3%. Previous was +0.2% 
- Retail Sales less autos month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.6%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  0.4%. Previous was +0.3%

This measures money spent in stores which sell merchandise.  This also includes restaurants.    It essentially measures discretionary spending.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Import and Export Prices  (January 2020)

- Import Prices month/month 0.0%. Previous was +0.3%
- Export Prices month/month 0.7%. Previous was -0.2%
- Import Prices year/year 0.3%. Previous was +0.5%
- Export Prices year/year 0.5%. Previous was -0.7%

Flat import prices should help contain inflation.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm

 

Industrial Production  (January 2020)

- Production month/month -0.3%. Previous was -0.3%
- Manufacturing month/month -0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- Capacity Utilization Rate     76.8%. Previous was 77.0%

Industrial Production includes utility output which fell in January because of warmer than December weather.  Manufacturing continues to disappoint.

Source:  Federal Reserve   Details:  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

 

 

Business Inventories  (December 2019)

- Inventories month/month 0.1%. Previous was -0.2%

This is a component of 4thQ2019 GDP.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

Consumer Sentiment (February 2020)

- Sentiment Index 100.9. Previous was 99.7.

Source:  University of Michigan

CPI (January 2020)

- CPI month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.2%
- CPI year/year  2.5%. Previous was 2.4%
- CPI core  (less food & energy) month/month 0.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- CPI core  (less food & energy) year/year 2.3%. Previous was 2.3%

The largest increases were in the cost of medical care and housing.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/8/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted   205,000. Previous was 203,000
- New Claims  unadjusted, totaled 218,977 a decrease of 5,687 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 212,000. Previous was 212,000

The jobs market remains extremely strong.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/7/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -6.0%. Previous weeks were -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, -0.4%, +1.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, +5.0%, and -3.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -16.0%, +4.0%, -8.0%, +13.0%, and +2.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week +1.1%. Previous weeks were 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -9.2%, +1.5%, -2.2%, +9.6%, and -0.1%.

The refi index tends to have a delayed reaction to rates.  The purchase index (unadjusted) is +16% year/year. 

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x262328

 

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (February 2020)

- Business Inflation Expectations 1.7%. Previous was +1.9%

This is a survey district which asks business owners what they think inflation will be in the next year.

Source:  Atlanta Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/bie.aspx

https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/bie.aspx

BLS Employment Situation Report (January 2020)

- Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted, month/month 225,000. Previous was 147,000
- Unemployment Rate  3.6%. Previous was 3.5%
- Private Payrolls month/month   206,000. Previous was 142,000
- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month -12,000. Previous was -5,000
- Participation Rate   63.4%. Previous was 63.2%
- Average Hourly Earnings month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.1%
- Average Hourly Earnings year/year 3.1%. Previous was 3.0%
- Average Workweek   34.3 hrs. Previous was 34.3 hours

The seasonal adjustment for January is large. Not seasonally adjusted jobs were -2,832,000.  This large adjustment happens every January as temporary workers are laid off after Christmas.

Source:  BLS  Summary here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Wholesale Trade  (December 2019)

- Inventories month/month -0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

This is a 4thQ2019 GDP component.

Source: Census Bureau    Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf