Personal Income and Outlays (February 2020)

- Personal Income month/month 0.6%. Previous was 0.6%
- Consumer Spending month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- PCE Price Index month/month 0.1%. Previous was 0.1%
- Core PCE price index month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.2%
- PCE Price Index year/year 1.8%. Previous was 1.8%
- Core PCE price index year/year 1.8%. Previous was 1/7%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Details:
https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income

 

Consumer Sentiment (March 2020)

- Sentiment Index 89.1. Previous was 95.9

This was taken mid-month and would likely be lower at present.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/20/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -15.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, 6.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, and -2.0%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -34.0%. Previous weeks were -10.0%, 79%, +26.%, -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, and -7.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -29.4%. Previous weeks were -8.4%, 55.4%, +15.1%, +1.5%, -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, and -5.0%

The refi numbers are a returning to normal (assuming such a thing exists) after media inaccurately informed people that mortgage rates were dropping a couple of weeks ago.  The drop in purchase applications is a result of people staying at home rather than holding open houses or visiting these.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Durable Goods Orders  (February 2020)

- New Orders month/month  1.2%. Previous was +0.1%
- Ex-transportation month/month  -0.6%. Previous was +0.6%
- Core capital goods month/month -0.8%. Previous was +1.0%

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

FHFA House Price Index  (January 2020)

- month/month 0.3%. Previous was +0.7%
- year/year 5.2%. Previous was +5.4%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/21/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 9.1%. Previous was +8.5%.
- Same Store Sales year/year 1.7%. Previous was +1.1%.

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

PMI Composite Flash  (March 2020)

- Composite    40.5. Previous was 49.6
- Manufacturing  49.2. Previous was 50.8
- Services    39.1. Previous was 49.4

This is a survey index and it displays the effects of businesses being shut.

Source:  Markit Ecoonomics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7bf04abd12954a8581c25bc4d9f5e93a

 

New Home Sales  (February 2020)

- New Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 765,000. Previous was 800,000

Source:  Census Bureau  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index  (March 2020)

- Level 2.  Previous was -2.

Source:  Richmond Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/regional_economy/surveys_of_business_conditions/manufacturing/

 

Chicago Federal Reserve  National Activity Index (February 2020)

- Level     0.16. Previous was -0.33
- 3 Month Moving Average -0.21. Previous was -0.11

The economic effects of COVID on the supply side were not felt in

February. March will be a different story.

Source:  Chicago Federal Reserve  Details: 

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfnai/index

Existing Home Sales (February 2020)

- Existing Home Sales seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 5,770,000. Previous was 5,420,000
- Existing Home Sales month/month 6.5%. Previous was -2.0%
- Existing Home Sales year/year  7.2%. Previous was 8.8%

Source: National Association of Realtors  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

Initial Jobless Claims  (week ended 3/14/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 281,000. Previous was 211,000
- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 250,892 an increase of 50,517 from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 232,250. Previous was 214,000

This is a number will be increasing dramatically. Best estimate is that we will lose 2,000,000 jobs total in the March, April, May period. How rapidly we recover those is not yet obvious.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Outlook Survey  (March 2020)

- General Business Conditions Index  -12.7. Previous was  36.7

This is a soft data (survey based) metric.

Leading Economic Indicators (February 2020)

- Leading Indicators month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.7%.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/13/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were 6.0%, -3.0%, +6.0%, -3.0%, -6.0%., -10.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, +16.0%, +5.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, and -0.4%
- Refinance Index Week/Week -10.0%. Previous weeks were 79%, +26.%, -1.0%, -8.0%, +5.0%, +15.0%, +8.0%, -2.0%, +43.0%, -8.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, and +9.0%
- Composite Index Week/Week -8.4%. Previous weeks were 55.4%, +15.1%, +1.5%, -6.4%, +1.1%, 5.0%, +7.2%, -1.2% +30.2%, -1.5%, -5.3%, -5.0%, and +3.8%

Mortgage lenders are overwhelmed by refinance applications. The volume is placing strains on title and escrow companies and appraisers as well. Lenders do not have enough cash or staff to meet the demand.  This has resulted in rates and prices being higher than they should be given where the 10 year Treasury yields is.  This is also a result of media misinforming the public causing folks to believe that Fed easing means lower mortgage rates.

Source:  Mortgage Bankers Association

Housing Starts (February 2020)

- Starts seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,599,000. Previous was 1,624,000
- Permits seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 1,464,000. Previous was 1,550,000

Source: Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

Retail Sales  (February 2020)

- Retail Sales month/month  -0.5%. Previous was +0.6%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month -0.4%. Previous was +0.6%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month  -0.2%. Previous was +0.7%

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/14/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year 8.5%. Previous was +6.0%.

Chain store sales data is difficult to interpret because the data only includes stores currently open which were open a year ago.  The effect of closed chain stores is not accounted for.

While this give the data a bias to the positive side it represents about 80% of the Retail Sales data published by the Department of Commerce.

The data includes about 9,000 stores.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Industrial Production  (February 2020)

- Production month/month 0.6%. Previous was -0.5%
- Manufacturing month/month 0.1%. Previous was -0.2%
- Utilization Rate  77.0%. Previous was 76.6%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

 

Business Inventories  (January 2020)

- Inventories month/month -0.1%. Previous was 0.0%.

Source:  Census Bureau  Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index  (March 2020)

- Housing Market Index 72. Previous was 74.

Source:  National Association of Home Builders

 

 

 

JOLTS  - Job Openings (January 2020)

- Job Openings 6,963,000. Previous was 6,552,000

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

 

 

 

Import and Export Prices  (February 2020)

- Import Prices month/month -0.5%. Previous was +0.1%
- Export Prices month/month -1.1%. Previous was +0.6%
- Import Prices year/year -1.2%. Previous was +0.3%
- Export Prices year/year -1.3%. Previous was +0.4%

Before COVID we were already seeing very slow economic growth in the EU, South America, and Canada.  COVID has impacted economic activity and will result in slower growth or recession in more nations.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

 

Consumer Sentiment - preliminary (March 2020)

- Sentiment Index   95.9. Previous was 101.0 

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey Center  Details: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/2/2020)

- New Claims seasonally adjusted 211,000. Previous was 215,000
- New Claims unadjusted, totaled 200,159 , a decrease of 16,823  from previous
- 4-week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 214,000. Previous was 212,750

COVID has not as yet affected jobs but likely will in the next few weeks.

Source:  Labor Department  Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

PPI (February 2020)

- PPI month/month      -0.6%. Previous was 0.5%
- PPI year/year  1.3%. Previous was 2.1%
- PPI core (less food & energy) month/month    -0.3%. Previous was 0.5%
- PPI  core (less food & energy) year/year 1.4%. Previous was 1.7%
- PPI  core (less food, energy & trade services) month/month -0.1%. Previous was 0.4%
- PPI less core (food, energy & trade services)  year/year  1.4%. Previous was 1.5%

This measures inflation at the wholesale level.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/