Personal Income and Outlays (July 2020)

- Personal Income month/month 0.4%. Previous was -1.0%
- Personal Consumption Expenditures m/m 1.9%. Previous was 6.2%
- PCE Price Index month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.5%
- Core PCE Price Index month/month 0.3%. Previous was 0.3%
- PCE Price Index year/year 1.0%. Previous was 1.0%
- Core PCE Price Index year/year 1.3%. Previous was 1.1%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2020

Goods Trade Deficit (July 2020)

- Deficit $79.3 billion . Previous was $71.0
- Exports month/month 11.8%
- Imports month/month 11.8%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/advance_report.pdf

Retail Inventories (July 2020)

- Retail Inventories month/month 1.2%. Previous was -2.7%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (July 2020)

- Wholesale Inventories month/month -0.1%. Previous was -1.3%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source: Census

Consumer Sentiment (August 2020)

- Index 74.1. Previous was 72.8

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Cener

GDP (2nd Q 2020) second estimate

- Quarter over Quarter - Annual Rate -31.7%. Previous estimate was -32.9%

- Consumer Spending - Annual Rate    -34.1%. Previous estimate was -34.6%    

While this is enormous we understand that this was caused by COVID-related shutdowns. Latest data-based estimate 

from Atlanta Fed for 3rdQ is +25.6%.  This is what I term the "Chick-fil-ization of the economy." It shows that sales plummet when stores close.    

The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5% in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4% in the first quarter.

Source:  BEA  Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2020-second-estimate-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/22/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted    1,006,000. Previous was 1,104,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted  totaled 821,591  a decrease of 67,958  from previous

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted    1,068,000. Previous was 1,175,000

The total number of people receiving regular UI was -604,000 week/week.

The total number of people receiving pandemic benefits was -252,004 week/week.

The fact that we are still seeing Initial Claims this high is of concern. It could be the case that this wave of UI is related to business being permanently closed.

Source:  Labor Department  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (July 2020)

- Sales month/month 5.9%. Previous was 15.8%

Source: National Association of Realtors.   Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/21/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.4%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, +2.0%, -1.8%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%, +5.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +9.0%, and +6.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -10.0% . Previous weeks were -5.0%, +9.1%, -6.8%, -0.4%, +5.0, +12.0%, +0.4%, -2.0%, -12.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, -9.0%, -0.2%, -6.0%, -3.0%, and -2.0%

- Composite Index week/week -6.5%. Previous weeks were -3.3%, +6.8%, -5.1%, -0.8%, 4.1%, +5.1%, +2.2%, -1.8%, -8.7%, +8.0%, +9.3%. -3.9%, +2.7%, -2.6%, and +0.3%.

Purchase applications were +33.0% year/year. Refi applications were +34.0% year/year. Refis have been impacted by then now delayed until December 1 FHFA 50 bps hit in price.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Details: https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/august/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x272033

Durable Goods Orders (July 2020)

- New Orders month/month 11.2%. Previous was +7.7%
- Ex-Transportation month/month 2.4%. Previous was +4.0%
- Core Capital Goods month/month 1.9%. Previous was +4.3%

This is substantially above expectation.

Source: Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/22/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year +0.6%. Previous was -2.8%.

- Same Store Sales month/month +4.1%. Previous was +2.8%.

Retail is making a comeback.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (June 2020)

- 20-City Seasonally Adjusted month/month 0.0%. Previous was 0.0%
- 20-City Unadjusted month/month 0.2%. Previous was 0.4 %
- 20-City Unadjusted year/year 3.5%. Previous was 3.9%

Source: Core Logic

FHFA House Price Index (June 2020)

- Month over Month 0.9%. Previous was -0.2 %
- Year over Year 5.7%. Previous was 4.9 %

These are prices for homes sold which used FHLMC/FNMA mortgages for financing.

Source: FHFA Details: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2020Q2-June.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence (August 2020)

- Index 84.8. Previous was 91.7

This is the metric from the Conference Board and is, in normal times, supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next 3-6 months. We are not in normal times.

Source: Conference Board

 

New Home Sales (July 2020)

- Annual Rate 901,000. . Previous was 791,000

Source: Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

PMI Composite Flash (August 2020)

- Composite Index        54.7. Previous was  51.3 

- Manufacturing Index    53.6. Previous was   51.9

- Services Index        54.8. Previous was   51.0

Source:  MarkitEconomics  Details: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b8fe1953311a43c795488641e8b75bb7

 

 

Existing Home Sales (July 2020)

- Annual Rate    5,860,000. Previous was 4,700,000

- Month over Month    24.7%. Previous was 20.2%

- Year over Year      8.7%. Previous was -11.7%

Source:  National Association of Realtors  Details:  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/15/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 1,106,000. Previous was 971,000.
- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 891,510 an increase of 52,776 from previous
- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 1,176,000. Previous was 1,255,000

The number of people receiving regular state UI fell 588,880 week/week, This is not seasonally adjusted.
The number of people receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance increased 501,378. This is not seasonally adjusted.

Source: Labor Department Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Leading Economic Indicators (July 2020)

- Leading Indicators month/month +1.4% . Previous was revised from +2.95 to 3.0%

The leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components which should give a picture of GDP growth 6 months into the future. Under the present circumstances this may have less value than usual.

Source: Conference Board

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/14/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, -1.8%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%, +5.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +9.0%, +6.0%. and +11.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +9.1%, -6.8%, -0.4%, +5.0, +12.0%, +0.4%, -2.0%, -12.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, -9.0%, -0.2%, -6.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, and -7.0%

- Composite Index week/week -3.3%. Previous weeks were +6.8%, -5.1%, -0.8%, 4.1%, +5.1%, +2.2%, -1.8%, -8.7%, +8.0%, +9.3%. -3.9%, +2.7%, -2.6%, +0.3%, and +0.1%

Purchase applications were +22.0% year/year. Refi applications were +84.0% year/year. Refis have been impacted by the FHFA 50 bps hit in price.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Details: https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/august/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

Housing Starts (July 2020)

- Starts annualized 1,496,000. Previous was 1,220,000
- Permits annualized 1,495,000. Previous was 1,258,000

Source: Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/15/2019)

- Same Store Sales year/year -2.8%. Previous was -3.4%.

- Same Store Sales month/month +2.8. Previous was +2.5%.

Year/year is all about COVID. The month/month data shows that store re-openings have modestly helped Chain Store Sales.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

Housing Market Index (August 2020)

- Housing Market Index 78. Previous was 72.

This is a survey index from the National Association of Home Builders asking builders their views on the economy in general and the housing market in particular.

Retail Sales (July 2020)

- Retail Sales month/month 1.2%. Previous was revised up to +8.4%
- Retail Sales less autos month/month 1.9%. Previous was 8.3%
- Less Autos & Gas month/month 1.5%. Previous was 7.7%

Source: Census Bureau Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Worker Productivity and Costs (2Q 2020)

- Nonfarm productivity quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 7.3%. Previous was -0.9 %
- Unit labor costs quarter/quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualized rate 12.2%. Previous was 5.1 %

Source: BLS Details: https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

Industrial Production (July 2020)

- Production - M/M change 5.4 % 3.0 % 1.5 % to 4.7 % 3.0 %. Previous was 5.7 %
- Manufacturing - M/M 7.2 % 3.0 % 2.0 % to 6.5 % 3.4 %. Previous was 7.4 %
- Capacity Utilization Rate - Level 68.6 % 70.3 % 69.0 % to 71.5 % 70.6 % . Previous was 68.5 %

Source: Federal Reserve Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

 

Business Inventories (June 2020)

- Inventories month/month -1.1%. Previous was -2.3 %

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (August 2020)

- Sentiment Index 72.8. Previous was 72.5

This survey index measures consumer stated intention to spend over the next few months.

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey Center