September 30. 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 9/25/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0%  . Previous weeks were +3.0%-1.0%., +3.0%,  -0.2%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -1.8%,  -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%, +5.0%, -1.0%, and -3.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -7.0% . Previous weeks were +9.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%,  -3.0%, -10.0%, -5.0%, +9.1%,  -6.8%, -0.4%, +5.0, +12.0%, +0.4%, -2.0%, -12.0%, +10.0%, and +11.0%

- Composite Index week/week -4.8% . Previous weeks were +6.8%, 2.5%, +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, -3.3%, +6.8%, -5.1%, -0.8%, 4.1%, +5.1%, +2.2%, -1.8%, -8.7%, +8.0%, and +9.3%

Purchase applications were +22%  year/year. Refi applications were +520%  year/year.  

Source:   Mortgage Bankers Association

 

Chicago PMI (September 2020)

- Index    62.4. Previous was  51.2 

Source: Institute For Supply Management - Chicago

 

ADP Private Jobs (September 2020)

- Private Payrolls month/month     +749,000. Previous was +481,000

Source: ADP Details: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

 

GDP (2ndQ2020)

- Quarter over Quarter seasonally adjusted, annualize        -31.4%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures -seasonally adjusted, annualize    -33.2%

This is the "final" estimate for 2ndQ.

Source:  BEA  Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (August 2020)

- Month over Month    58.8%. Previous was +5.9%

Source: National Association of Realtors

September 29, 2020


Goods Trade Deficit (August 2020)

- Deficit  $82.9 billion . Previous was $80.1 billion

- Exports month/month   +3.1%

- Imports month/month  +2.8%. This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  Census   Details:  https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/advance_report.pdf

 

Retail Inventories (August 2020)

- Retail Inventories month/month +0.8% . Previous was +1.2%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (August 2020)

- Wholesale Inventories month/month  +0.5%. Previous was -0.1%.

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  Census

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/26/2020)

- Same Store Sales year/year +2.2%. Previous was +1.5%.

- Same Store Sales month/month -0.3% . Previous was -0.9%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    0.6%. Previous was  0.0%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month    0.6%. Previous was +0.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        3.9%. Previous was +3.5%

Flat supply + increased demand = higher prices.

Source: Core Logic

 

Consumer Confidence  (September 2020)

- Index 101.8. Previous was 86.3.

This is a survey metric which is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next 90 days.

While this is the largest increase in 17 years the increase is from a depressed level.

This is the metric from the Confrence Board

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/19/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted    870 ,000. Previous was 866,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 824,542 an increase of 28,527 from previous        

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted    878,250. Previous was 913,500

The total number of people getting regular UI declined by167,000

The total number of people getting pandemic benefits declined by 2,956,176.

Source:  Department of Labor  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf 

 

New Home Sales (August 2020)

- Annual Rate    1,011,000. Previous was 965,000

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

September 23, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 9/18/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week  +3.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%., +3.0%,  -0.2%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -1.8%,  -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%, +5.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, and +4.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +9.0% . Previous weeks were -4.0%, +3.0%,  -3.0%, -10.0%, -5.0%, +9.1%,  -6.8%, -0.4%, +5.0, +12.0%, +0.4%, -2.0%, -12.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, and -9.0%

- Composite Index week/week +6.8% . Previous weeks were 2.5%, +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, -3.3%, +6.8%, -5.1%, -0.8%, 4.1%, +5.1%, +2.2%, -1.8%, -8.7%, +8.0%, +9.3%. and -3.9%.

Purchase applications were +60%  year/year. Refi applications were +30.0%  year/year.  

Source:   Mortgage Bankers Association   

 

FHFA House Price Index  (July 2020)

- Month over Month    1.0%. Previous was 1.0%

- Year over Year    6.5%. Previous was 5.8%

Source:  FHFA  Details: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/U-S-House-Price-Index-July-2020.aspx

 

PMI Composite Flash  (September 2020)

- Composite Index         54.4. Previous was 54.7 

- Manufacturing Index    53.5. Previous was  53.6 

- Services Index         54.6. Previous was  54.8 

This is a survey index assessing the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/19/2020)

- Store Sales year/year +1.5%. Previous was -1.2%

- Store Sales month/month -0.9%. Previous was -1.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Existing Home Sales (August 2020)

- Existing Home sales year/year 6,000,000. Previous was 5,860,000

Sales were +10.7% month/month. Median Sales Price was +11.4% year/year

Source: National Association of Realtors Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

Consumer Sentiment (September 2020)

- Index 78.9 . Previous was 74.1

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months. This is a survey from the University of
Michigan's Consumer Survey Center. Because of COVID-related uncertainty and with the survey possibly expressing political affiliation rather than true intentions this may have less value than usual.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center Details: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Leading Economic Indicators (August 2020)

- Month over Month +1.2% . Previous was +1.4%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source: Conference Board Details: https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

Housing Starts and Permits  (August 2020)

- Starts Annual Rate    1,416,000. Previous was 1,492,000

- Permits Annual Rate    1.470,000. Previous was  1.483,000

We need 1,500,000 Starts to keep pace with population growth. We have been above that for only 1 month since 2007.  There is

significant demand for housing. Supply is restrained and prices driven up by local government policies of land use regulation and zoning.

Apart from economics this is a social issue.  Limited housing supply is correlated with homelessness. 

 

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/12/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 860,000. Previous was 893,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted totaled 790,021 a decrease of 75,974  from previous.

Total regular state continuing claims was +215,922.  

 

The Jobs market is still weak and provides justification for Fed policy of preference for driving unemployment down if if this causes CPI to move above 2% for a while.

Source:  Labor Department   Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/11/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -0.2%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -1.8%, -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%, +5.0%, -1.0%, -3.0%, +4.0%, and +5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -4.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -3.0%, -10.0%, -5.0%, +9.1%, -6.8%, -0.4%, +5.0, +12.0%, +0.4%, -2.0%, -12.0%, +10.0%, +11.0%, -9.0%, and -0.2%

- Composite Index week/week -2.5% . Previous weeks were +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, -3.3%, +6.8%, -5.1%, -0.8%, 4.1%, +5.1%, +2.2%, -1.8%, -8.7%, +8.0%, +9.3%. -3.9%, and +2.7%.

Purchase applications were +60% year/year. Refi applications were +30.0% year/year.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Details: https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/september/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x272310

Retail Sales (August 2020)

- Retail Sales month/month 0.6%. Previous was 0.9%
- Ex-Vehicles month/month 0.7%. Previous was 1.3%
- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month 0.7%. Previous was 1.1%

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Business Inventories (July 2020)

- Inventories month/month 0.1%. Previous was +0.1%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

Housing Market Index (September 2020)

- Index 83. Previous was 78

This is a survey index conducted by NAHB - National Association of Home Builders. This reading is an all-time high.

Details: https://nahbnow.com/2020/09/builder-confidence-soars-to-an-all-time-high-lumber-risks-remain/

Import and Export Prices (August 2020)

- Import Prices month/month 0.9%. Previous was 1.2%
- Import Prices year/year -1.4%. Previous was -2.8%
- Export Prices month/month 0.5%. Previous was 0.9%
- Export Prices year/year -2.8%. Previous was -3.8%

Source: BLS Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/12/2020)

- Same Store Sales year/year -1.2%. Previous was -0.1%
- Same Store Sales month/month -1.6%. Previous was -1.0%

Source: Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Industrial Production (August 2020)

- Industrial Production month/month 0.4%. Previous was +3.5%
- Manufacturing Output month/month 1.0%. Previous was +3.9%
- Capacity Utilization Rate 71.4%. Previous was 71.1%

Industrial Production is 7.3% below the pre-COVID level of February.

Source: Federal Reserve Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/

CPI (August 2020)

- CPI month/month 0.4%. Previous was 0.6%
- CPI year/year 1.3%. Previous was 1.0%
- Core (Ex-Food & Energy) month/month 0.4%. Previous was 0.6%
- Core (Ex-Food & Energy) year/year 1.7%. Previous was 1.6%

While the rate of inflation varied greatly from item group to item group overall inflation remains well-contained.

Source: BLS Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm