Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/10/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted     898,000. Previous was 845,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 885,885  an increase of 76,670  from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  866,250. Previous was 857,000

The total number of people receiving regular UI was -799,126 for the week.

All-in-all the data translated into an unemployment rate of 6.8%

California is still not reporting Initial Claims but it did  reopen claims windows. This is a serious problem at a time when this data is critical. 

 

Import and Export Prices  (September 2020)

- Import Prices month/month     0.3%. Previous was +1.0%

- Import Prices year/year    -1.1%. Previous was -1.4%

- Export Prices month/month     0.6%. Previous was +0.5%

- Export Prices year/year    -1.8%. Previous was -2.8%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/9/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week . -2.0%Previous weeks were  -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%-1.0%, +3.0%,  -0.2%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -1.8%,  -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%, and +5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  -0.3%. Previous weeks were +8.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%,  -3.0%, -10.0%, -5.0%, +9.1%,  -6.8%, -0.4%, +5.0, +12.0%, +0.4%, -2.0%, and -12.0%

- Composite Index week/week . Previous weeks were -0.7%+4.8%, -4.8%, +6.8%, 2.5%, +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, -3.3%, +6.8%, -5.1%, -0.8%, 4.1%, +5.1%, +2.2%, -1.8%, and -8.7%

Purchase applications were +24%  year/year. Refi applications were +44%  year/year.  

Adjustable-rate mortgages were 2% of applications. 

Source:   Mortgage Bankers Association

 

PPI  (September 2020)

- PPI-FD month/month         0.4%. Previous was 0.3%

- PPI-FD year/year             0.4%. Previous was -0.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy  month/month 0.4%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Food & Energy  year/year       1.2%. Previous was 0.6%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services  month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.3%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services  year/year    0.7%. Previous was 0.3% 

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

 

CPI (September 2020)

- CPI month/month        0.2%. Previous was 0.4%

- CPI year/year    1.4%. Previous was 1.3%

- Core (Ex-Food & Energy) month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.4%

-Core (Ex-Food & Energy)  year/year    1.7%. Previous was 1.7%

inflation remains tame.  The generally accepted belief that massive deficits will increase inflation may be inaccurate.

Read this: https://hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2020Q3NP.pdf

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/10/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +1.2%. Previous was 2.1%

- Chain Store Sales month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.0%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

Wholesale Inventories (August 2020)

- Inventories month/month +0.4%. Previous was -0.3%.

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/3/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted     840,000. Previous was 849,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled     804,307 an increase of 5,312  from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 857,000. Previous was 870,250

The total number of people claiming regular UI was 11,561,062 a decline of 802,427 from the previous week.

The total number of people receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance was down 433,506.

UI data is relative useless because California was not accepting any new UI claims for the second consecutive week.

Source:  Department of Labor   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

MBA Mortgage Applications  (week ended 10/2/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0% . Previous weeks were -2.0%, +3.0%-1.0%., +3.0%,  -0.2%, +0.4%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -1.8%,  -2.0%, +2.0%, -6.0%, +5.0%, and -1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +8.0% . Previous weeks were -7.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%,  -3.0%, -10.0%, -5.0%, +9.1%,  -6.8%, -0.4%, +5.0, +12.0%, +0.4%, -2.0%, -12.0%, and +10.0%

- Composite Index week/week +4.8%. Previous weeks were -4.8%, +6.8%, 2.5%, +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, -3.3%, +6.8%, -5.1%, -0.8%, 4.1%, +5.1%, +2.2%, -1.8%, -8.7%, and +8.0%

Purchase applications were +21%  year/year. Refi applications were +50%  year/year.  

Source:   Mortgage Bankers Association

Goods and Services Trade Deficit (August 2020)

- Deficit    $67.1 billion. Previous was $63.4 billion

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/3/2020)

- Same Store Sales year/year +2.3%. Previous was +2.2%.

- Same Store Sales month/month 0.0% . Previous was -0.3%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

JOLTS  (August 2020)

- Job Openings  6,493,000. Previous was 6,697,000

Source:  BLS   Details: https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

PMI Composite (September 2020)

- Composite Index 54.3. Previous was 54.6
- Services Index 54.6. Previous was 55.0

A survey based supply side metric

Source: Markit Economics

ISM Services Index (September 2020)

- Index level 57.8. Previous was 56.9.

Another survey based supply side metric.

Source: Institute For Supply Management

Employment Situation Report  (September 2020)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month             +661,000. Previous was 1,489,000

- Unemployment Rate            7.9 %. Previous was 8.4%

- Private Payrolls  month/month    877,000. Previous was  +1,022,000 

- Manufacturing Payrolls  month/month      66,000. Previous was  36,000 

- Participation Rate              61.4%. Previous was 61.7%

- Average Hourly Earnings  month/month        0.1%. Previous was  0.3%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year        4.7%. Previous was 4.6 %

- Average Workweek         34.7 hours. Previous was 34.6 hours.    

 

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

Consumer Sentiment  (September 2020)

-  Index        80.4. Previous was  78.9

Source:   University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center  Details: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

 

Factory Orders (August 2020)

- Month over Month    +0.7%. Previous was 6.5 %    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (September 2020)

- Level     118,804. Previous was 115,762

Source: Challenger Gray & Christmas, Details: https://www.challengergray.com/

 

Initial Jobless Jobless Claims (week ended 9/26/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted    837,000. Previous was 873,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 786,942  a decrease of 40,263 from previous

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted    867,250. Previous was 879.0

The above data is fro regular state UI. Pandemic Claims were +317,450.  California claims data are frozen and with California 

have the largest number of UI claims any analysis is nearly useless.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (August 2020)

- Personal Income month/month    -2.7%. Previous was 0.5%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month    1.0%. Previous was 1.5%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.3%. Previous was 0.4%

- PCE Price Index year/year        1.4%. Previous was 1.2%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.3%. Previous was 0.4%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year    1.6%. Previous was 1.4%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis  Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2020

 

PMI Manufacturing Final (September 2020)

- Index    53.1. Previous was  53.1  

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Manufacturing Index (September 2020)

- Index 55.4. Previous was 56.0

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

 

Construction Spending  (August 2020)

- Month over Month    +1.4%. Previous was +0.7%

- Year over Year  +2.5%. Previous was +1.9%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf