CPI (November 2020)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.2% . Previous was 0.0%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   1.2%. Previous was 1.2%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.2%. Previous was 

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  1.6%. Previous was 1.6%

Inflation - always the biggest threat to interest rates - remains tame.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/5/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  853,000. Previous was 716,000

- Initial Claims  not  seasonally adjusted unadjusted totaled 947,504 an increase of 228,982 (or 31.9 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  776,000. Previous was  739,500

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 676,508

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  313,739 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by  36,140 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 1,120,049

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/4/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -5.0%.  Previous weeks were 9.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, 3.0%, -1.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%-1.0%, +3.0%,  and -0.2%

- Refinance Index week/week  +2.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%, +3.8%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, +0.2%, -0.3%, +8.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%,  -3.0%, and -10.0%,

- Composite Index week/week -1.2%. Previous weeks were -0.6%, +5.0%, -0.3%,  -0.5%, +3.8%, +1.7%, -0.6%, -0.7%, +4.8%, -4.8%, +6.8%, 2.5%, +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, and -3.3%,

Refis are 89% year/year.  Purchase applications are +22% year/year,

Source:  MBA  Details  https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/december/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x274321

 

JOLTS  (October 2020)

- Job Openings 6.7 million.  

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

 

Wholesale Inventories   (October 2020)

- Inventories +1.8%.  Previous was +0.9%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (November 2020)

- Index    101.4. Previous was 104.0. 

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

Details:  https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-owners-remain-uncertain-after-election/

 

Productivity and Costs (3rdQ2020)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate    4.6%. Previous was 4.9%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate    -6.6%. Previous was 8.9%

Productivity is total Labor Cost/GDP.  

Source:  BLS   Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/5/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +2.1%. Previous was 9.2%

- Chain Store Sales month/month -2.4%. Previous was +1.3%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

December 4, 2020

BLS Employment Situation Report (November 2020)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  245,000.   Previous was 610,000

- Unemployment Rate   6.7%. Previous was  6.9%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 344,000.  Previous was   877,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  27,000. Previous was   33,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.5%. Previous was  61.6%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.3%. Previous was  0.1%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    4.4%. Previous was  4.5%

- Average Workweek        34.8 hours. Previous was  34.8 hours   

Jobs are recovering but at a much slower pace.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

 

Trade Deficit (October 2020)

- Deficit $63.1 billion.  Previous was $62.1 billion.

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

 

Factory Orders (October 2020)

- Month over Month +1.0% . Previous was +1.3%.    

 

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

 

December 3, 2020

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (November 2020)

- Announced layoffs         64,797. Previous was  80,666 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/28/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted        712,000. Previous was 7487,000

- Initial Claims  not  seasonally adjusted unadjusted, totaled 713,824 in the week ending November 28, a decrease of 122,453 (or -14.6 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted    739,500. Previous was 750,750

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 147,538 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by 339,068 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 79,698

Total receiving any UI decreased by 349,633 

The implicit unadjusted Unemployment rate was 3.8%.  While this is what is used as the official unemployment rate it is a rather meaningless statistic because it does not include the 13.4 million receiving Pandemic UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

PMI Manufacturing Final  (November 2020)

- Index 56.8. Previous was 56.9

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (November  2020)

- Index 55.9. Previous was 56.6

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

 

December 2, 2020

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/27/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week 9.9%.  Previous weeks were +4.0%, +4.0%, 3.0%, -1.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%-1.0%, +3.0%,  -0.2%, and +0.4%

- Refinance Index week/week  -5.0%. Previous weeks were +3.8%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, +0.2%, -0.3%, +8.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%,  -3.0%, -10.0%, and -5.0% 

- Composite Index week/week -0.6. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -0.3%,  -0.5%, +3.8%, +1.7%, -0.6%, -0.7%, +4.8%, -4.8%, +6.8%, 2.5%, +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, -3.3%, and +6.8%.

Refis are 102% year/year.  Purchase applications are +28% year/year,

Source:  MBA  Details: https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/december/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

ADP Private Jobs  (November 2020)

- Private Jobs +307,000. Previous was +404,000

Still growing but at a slower pace.

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/November/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-November2020-Final-Press-Release.pdf

 

December 1, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/28 /2020)

- Store Sales year/year +9.2%.  Previous was +2.8%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

PMI Manufacturing Final  (November 2020)

- Index 56.7. Previous was 53.4

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (November 2020)

- Index 57.5 Previous was 59.3

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

 

Construction Spending  (October 2020)

- Month over Month    +1.3%. Previous was -0.5%

- Year over Year 3.7%. Previous was 1.9%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (November 2020)

- Announced layoffs         64,797. Previous was  80,666 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/28/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted        712,000. Previous was 7487,000

- Initial Claims  not  seasonally adjusted unadjusted, totaled 713,824 in the week ending November 28, a decrease of 122,453 (or -14.6 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted    739,500. Previous was 750,750

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 147,538 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by 339,068 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 79,698

Total receiving any UI decreased by 349,633 

The implicit unadjusted Unemployment rate was 3.8%.  While this is what is used as the official unemployment rate it is a rather meaningless statistic because it does not include the 13.4 million receiving Pandemic UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

PMI Manufacturing Final  (November 2020)

- Index 56.8. Previous was 56.9

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (November  2020)

- Index 55.9. Previous was 56.6

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/27/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week 9.9%.  Previous weeks were +4.0%, +4.0%, 3.0%, -1.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%-1.0%, +3.0%,  -0.2%, and +0.4%

- Refinance Index week/week  -5.0%. Previous weeks were +3.8%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, +0.2%, -0.3%, +8.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, -4.0%, +3.0%,  -3.0%, -10.0%, and -5.0% 

- Composite Index week/week -0.6. Previous weeks were +5.0%, -0.3%,  -0.5%, +3.8%, +1.7%, -0.6%, -0.7%, +4.8%, -4.8%, +6.8%, 2.5%, +2.9%, -2.0%, -6.5%, -3.3%, and +6.8%.

Refis are +102% year/year.  Purchase applications are +28% year/year,

Source:  MBA  Details: https://www.mba.org/2020-press-releases/december/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

ADP Private Jobs  (November 2020)

- Private Jobs +307,000. Previous was +404,000

Still growing but at a slower pace.

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/November/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-November2020-Final-Press-Release.pdf

 

December 1, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/28 /2020)

- Store Sales year/year +9.2%.  Previous was +2.8%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

PMI Manufacturing Final  (November 2020)

- Index 56.7. Previous was 53.4

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (November 2020)

- Index 57.5 Previous was 59.3

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

 

Construction Spending  (October 2020)

- Month over Month    +1.3%. Previous was -0.5%

- Year over Year 3.7%. Previous was 1.9%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf