February 12, 2021

Consumer Sentiment (January 2021)

- Index 76.2. Previous was 79.0

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/6/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  793,000. Previous was 812,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 813,145 a decrease of 36,534 (or -4.3%) from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  848,250. Previous was  849,500

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 32,295 

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by 1,496,505  

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 1,172,948

Total receiving any UI increased by 2,596,539

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/5/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -5.0% .  Previous weeks were +0.1%, -4.0%, 3.0%, +8.0%, -0.8% -5.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, 9.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, 3.0%, -1.0%, and +0.2%.

- Refinance Index week/week -4.0%.  Previous weeks  11.0%, -5.5%, -5.0%, +20.0%,  -6.0%, +4.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +6.0%, and +3.0%

- Composite Index week/week -4.1%.  Previous weeks were 8.1%, -4.1%, -1,9%, +16.7%, -4.2%, +0.8%. +1.1%, -1.2%, -0.6%, 5.0%, -0.3%,  -0.5%, +3.8%, +1.7%, and -0.6%.

Source:  MBA   Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

CPI (January 2021)

- CPI - month/month  0.3%. Previous was +0.2%

- CPI year/year     1.4%. Previous was +1.4%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month     0.0%. Previous was 0.0%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        1.4%. Previous was +1.6%

Core inflation is zero.

Source:  BLS  Derails: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

 

Wholesale Inventories - Preliminary (December 2020)

- Month over Month  +0.3%. Previous was 0,0%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (January 2021)

- Index    95.0 Previous was 95.9. 

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-drops-further-below-historical-index-average-in-january/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/6/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 0.7%. Previous was 4.4%

- Chain Store Sales month/month -2.5%. Previous was -1.6%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

JOLTS (December 2020)

- Job Openings 6.646 million.  Previous was 6.527 million.

Increased Job Openings is a modestly positive sign.

Source: BLS   Details  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

 

BLS Employment Situation Report (January 2021)

- Nonfarm Payrolls month/month    49,000. Previous was  -227,000

- Unemployment Rate      6.3 %. Previous was  6.7%

- Private Payrolls month/month    6,000. Previous was   -204,000 

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month     -10,000. Previous was 31,000

- Participation Rate     61.4 %. Previous was 61.5 % 

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.2%. Previous was  1.0%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    5.4%. Previous was  5.4%

- Average Workweek    35.0 hrs. Previous was  34.7 hrs

At the end of February 2020 the U.S. economy had 152,463,000 jobs. On January 21 the CDC had announced the first U.S. case of a coronavirus in a Snohomish County, WA resident who returned from China six days earlier. By the end of February 2020 the number of COIVD-involved deaths in the U.S. had totaled 20. In mid-March the the numbers started increasing dramatically.  The BLS report for April jobs showed 130,300,000 jobs. More than 22,000,000 jobs had been lost. Jobs recovery started in May and lasted until November and then stopped.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

Trade Deficit (December 2020)

- Balance    $66.6 Billion. Previous was $69.0 Billion

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/PressHighlights.pdf

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (January 2021)

- Announced Layoffs 79,552. Previous was 77,030

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/30/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  779,000. Previous was 812,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 816,247 in the week ending January 30, a decrease of 23,525 (or -2.8 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  848,250. Previous was  849,500

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 258,852 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  125,969 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 289,910 

Total receiving any UI decreased by -486,405

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Productivity and Costs  (4thQ2020)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate -4.8%.  Previous was +5.1%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate 6.8%. Previous was -7.0%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

 

Factory Orders (December 2020)

- Month over Month +1.1% . Previous was +1.3%.    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/29/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.1%.  Previous weeks were -4.0%, 3.0%, +8.0%, -0.8% -5.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, 9.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, 3.0%, -1.0%, +0.2%, and -2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week 11.0%.  Previous weeks  -5.5%, -5.0%, +20.0%,  -6.0%, +4.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, and +0.2%

- Composite Index week/week 8.1%.  Previous weeks were -4.1%, -1,9%, +16.7%, -4.2%, +0.8%. +1.1%, -1.2%, -0.6%, 5.0%, -0.3%,  -0.5%, +3.8%, +1.7%, -0.6%, and -0.7%

Source:  MBA   Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

ADP Private Jobs  (January 2021)

- Private Jobs. +174,000. Previous was  -78,000

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/January/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-January2021-Final-Press-Release.pdf

 

PMI Composite Final  (January 2021)

- Composite  58.7. Previous was 55.3

- Services      58.3. Previous was 54.8

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Services Index (January 2021)

- Index   58.9. Previous was 57.2.

Source:  Institute for Supply Management   Details:  https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/january/

Construction Spending  (December 2020)

- Month over Month    +1.0%. Previous was +1.1%

- Year over Year 5.7%. Previous was 5.0%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf

 

PMI Manufacturing Final  (January 2021)

- Index 59.2. Previous was 59.1

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Institute For Supply Management

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (January 2021)

 

- Index 58.7 Previous was 60.5

Source:  Institute for Supply Management