MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/26/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0%.  Previous weeks were +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -4.0%, 3.0%, +8.0%,-0.8%,-5.0%, +2.0%, and -5.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week   -3.0%. Previous weeks  were -3.5%, -4.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, 11.0%, -5.5%, -5.0%, +20.0%,  -6.0%, +4.0%, and +1.0%

- Composite Index week/week -2.2%. Previous weeks were -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, -4.1%,8.1%, -4.1%, -1,9%, +16.7%,-4.2%, +0.8%. +1.1%, -1.2%, and  -0.6%

Source:  MBA    Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/march/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x278456

 

ADP Employment Report (March 2021)

- Private Jobs. +517,000. Previous was  +176,000

437,000 of the 517,000 increase were in service-providing jobs - the sector which is the slowest to recover. Restaurants and schools are reopening.

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/March/NER/NER-March-2021.aspx

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (February 2021)

- Month over month  -10.6%. Previous was -2.4%

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.   The problem is a lack of supply.

Source: National Association of Realtors

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/26/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 9.8%. Previous was 9.4%

- Chain Store Sales month/month -17.4%. Previous was -17.6%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (January 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    1.2%. Previous was 1.3%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month    0.9%. Previous was 0.8%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        11.1%. Previous was 610.7%

Flat supply + increased demand = higher prices.

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (4thQ 2020)

- month/month +1.0%. Previous was +1.2%

- year/year +12.0%. Previous was +11.4%

Source:  FHFA  Details: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2020-Q4.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (March 2021)

- Index 109.7. Previous was 90.4.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

March 26, 2021

International Goods Trade Deficit (February 2021)

- Deficit     $86.7 billion. Previous was $84.6 billion

- Imports month/month    -1.4%. Previous was 1.6%

- Exports month/month    -3.8%. Previous was 1.5%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/econ/indicators/advance_report.pdf

 

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (February 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   -7.1%. Previous was +10.3%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  -1.0%.Previous was +3.4%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.2%    %. Previous was 0.3%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    1.6%. Previous was 1.4%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.1%. Previous was  0.2%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  +1.4%. Previous was +1,5%

PCE is an inflation metric and remains well-contained.

Source:  BEA   Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income

 

 

Retail Inventories (February 2021)  

- Month over Month    0.0%. Previous was -0.3%

This is a component of 1stQ2021 GDP

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (February  2021)

- Month over Month  +0.5%. Previous was 1.4%

This is a component of 1stGDP.

Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (February 2021)

- Index 84.9. Previous was 83.0

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

March 25, 2021

GDP  (4thQ2020)

- Quarter over Quarter  (annualized) 4.3%. Previous was 4.1%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures (annualized)     2.3%. Previous was 2.4%.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-03/gdp4q20_3rd.pdf

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/20/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  684,000. Previous was 781,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 656,789  a decrease of 100,412 from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  736,000. Previous was  749,000

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 89,000

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by 118,898

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 734,692 

The total receiving any Unemployment Benefit was 18,952,795 an increase of 733,862

Source:  Labor Department  Details:   https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/corporate-profits

March 24, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/19/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week  +3.0%.  Previous weeks were +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -4.0%, 3.0%, +8.0%,-0.8%,-5.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, and 9.9%

 

- Refinance Index week/week -3.5%  Previous weeks  were -4.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, 11.0%, -5.5%, -5.0%, +20.0%,  -6.0%, +4.0%, +1.0%, and +2.0%

- Composite Index week/week -2.5%. Previous weeks were -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, -4.1%,8.1%, -4.1%, -1,9%, +16.7%,-4.2%, +0.8%. +1.1%, -1.2%, -0.6%, and 5.0%

Source:  MBA    Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/march/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x278243

 

Durable Goods Orders (February 2021)

- New Orders month/month        -1.1%. Previous was 3.5%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    -0.9%. Previous was 1.6%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    -0.8%. Previous was 0.6%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

March 23, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/20/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 9.4%. Previous was 8.50%

- Chain Store Sales month/month -17.6%. Previous was -17.9%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

New Home Sales  (February 2021)

- Annual Rate 775,000.  Previous was 948,000

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

March 22, 2021

Existing Home Sales (February 2021)

- Annual Rate 6,220,000.  Previous was 6.660,000

- Month over Month    -6.6 %        

- Year over Year +9.1%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/27/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  770,000. Previous was 725,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 746,496  an increase of 24,318 from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  746,250. Previous was  762,250

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 260,822

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by 772,583

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 640,732

The total receiving any Unemployment Benefit was 18,216,463 a decrease of 1,902,005

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (February 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.2%. Previous was +0.5%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

 

March 17, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/122021) 

- Purchase Index week/week  +2.0%.  Previous weeks were +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -4.0%, 3.0%, +8.0%,-0.8%,-5.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, and 9.9% and +4.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -4.0%.  Previous weeks  were -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, 11.0%, -5.5%, -5.0%, +20.0%,  -6.0%, +4.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -and 5.0%

- Composite Index week/week -2.2%. Previous weeks were -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, -4.1%,8.1%, -4.1%, -1,9%, +16.7%,-4.2%, +0.8%. +1.1%, -1.2%, -0.6%, 5.0%, and -0.3%

Source:  MBA    Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/march/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x277674

 

Housing Starts (February 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,421,000. Previous was 1,584,000  

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,682,000. Previous was 1,886,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019. The lack of sufficient housing supply is causing prices to increase. 

We need an enormous increase in Starts if we are to even utter the words "affordable housing." We need to establish 2,000,000 starts/year as a goal toward that.

SFR Starts were 1,143,000 which was +15.0% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

March 16, 2021

Retail Sales  (February 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month -3.0%. Previous was 7.6%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month -2.7%. Previous was 8.3%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  -3.3%   Previous was 8.5%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 1stQ 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices  (February 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     1.34%. Previous was +1.4%

- Import Prices year/year    3.0%. Previous was 1.0%

- Export Prices month/month   1.6%. Previous was 2.5%

- Export Prices year/year    +5.2%. Previous was +2.3%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/13/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 6.5%. Previous was 8.0%

- Chain Store Sales month/month -17.9%. Previous was -18.1%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Industrial Production  (February 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month -2.2%.    Previous was +1.1%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  -3.1% . Previous was  +1.2%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        73.8%. Previous was 75.5%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf

 

Business Inventories (January 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.8%.

This is a component of 1stQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index ( March 2021)

- Index  82.  Previous was   84

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.