GDP  (1st Q 2021)

- - Quarter over Quarter - annualized   6.4%.  Previous Q was 4.3%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    10.7%. Previous was 2.3%

This is the advance estimate.  It has data for only 2 months for some components.

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2021-advance-estimate

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/24/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  553,000. Previous was 566,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 575,350 a decrease of 9,486  from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  611,750. Previous was  655,750

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 73,089 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by 335,536 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 413,224 

The total receiving any Unemployment Benefit was 16,559,276   a decrease of 845,874  

Source:  Labor Department  Details:   https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (March 2021)

- month/month +1.9%.  Previous was -10.6%

Source:  National Association of Realtors  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/23/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -5.0%%.  Previous weeks were +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -4.0%, 3.0%, and +8.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks  were +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, 11.0%, -5.5%, and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week -2,5%. Previous weeks were +8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, -4.1%,8.1%, -4.1%, -1,9%, +16.7%,and -4.2%.

Source:  MBA    Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/april/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x279239

 

Trade Deficit (March 2021)

- Deficit $90.6 billion.  Previous was $87.1 billion.

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

 

Retail Inventories (March 2021)

- Month/month -1.4%. Previous was +0.0%

 

Wholesale Inventories (March 2021)

- Month/month 1.4%. Previous was +0.9%

April 27, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/24/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +13.9%. Previous was 13.5%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (February 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    1.2%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month    1.2%. Previous was 0.9%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        11.9%. Previous was 11.1%

Flat supply + increased demand = higher prices.

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (February 2021)

- month/month +0.9%. Previous was +1.0%

- year/year +12.2%. Previous was +12.1%

Source:  FHFA  Details: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-HPI-April-2021.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (April 2021)

- Index 121.7. Previous was 109.0.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

April 26, 2021

Durable Goods Orders (March 2021)

- New Orders month/month        0.5%. Previous was -1.1%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    1.6%. Previous was -0.9%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.9%. Previous was -0.8%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

New Home Sales  (March 2021)

-  Annual rate  1,021,000. Previous was 846,000.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

PMI Composite  (April 2021)

- Composite Index       62.2.  Previous was 59.1

- Manufacturing Index 60.6.  Previous was 59.0

- Services Index           63.1.  Previous was 60.0

In order to not suffer inflation above 2% annualized the supply side must keep up with the demand side.

Source:  Markit Economics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/22fc73216cf444c9b5443bb2a535091e

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/17/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  547,000. Previous was 586,000

- Initial Claims, unadjusted, totaled 566,479 a decrease of 56,554  from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  651,000. Previous was  678,750

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 101,484

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by 265,228 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 447,704 

The total receiving any Unemployment Benefit was 17,405,094  an increase of 491,674  

Source:  Labor Department  Details:   https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Existing Home Sales (March 2021)

- Annual Rate  6,010,000. Previous was 6,205,000

- Month over Month  -3.7%. Year over Year 12.3%

As of the end of March, housing inventory slightly rose to 1.07 million units, down by 28.2% year-

over-year. Properties typically sold in 18 days, a record low.

This makes 2 consecutive months of decline in Existing Home Sales. 

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/housing-market-reaches-record-high-home-price-and-gains-in-march

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (March 2021)

- Month over Month  +1.3%. Previous was +0.2%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

April 21, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/16/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +6.0%.  Previous weeks were -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -4.0%, 3.0%, +8.0%, and -0.8%

- Refinance Index week/week +10.0%. Previous weeks  were -5.0%, -5.5%,  -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, -5.0%, -4.0%, 11.0%, -5.5%, -5.0%, and +20.0%

- Composite Index week/week +8.6%. Previous weeks were 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, -4.1%,8.1%, -4.1%, -1,9%, +16.7%,-4.2%, and +0.8%.

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/april/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

April 20, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 4/17/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +13.5%. Previous was 13.2%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

April 16, 2021

Housing Starts and Permits  (March  2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,739,000. Previous was 1.457,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,766,000. Previous was 1.720,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1,500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019, went above that for 2 months and then had the COVID crash. Home prices are increasing at an unhealthy rate due to lack of supply. In order to make up for the shortfall of Housing Starts over the past 14 years we need Starts at a level of 2,200,000 for 10 years. 

SFR Starts were 1,238,000 which was +40.7% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment  (April 2021)

- index  86.5. Previous was 84.9

This is a survey index from University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center.  Details: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/10/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  576,000. Previous was 769,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 612,919  a decrease of 152,833 from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  683,000. Previous was  730,250

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 73,855

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by 500,715 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 474,700 

The total receiving any Unemployment Benefit was 16,934,061  a decrease of 1,235,856 

This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000

Source:  Labor Department  Details:   https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Retail Sales  (March 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  +9.8%. Previous was -2.7%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +8.4%. Previous was -2.5%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  +8.2%   Previous was -3.1%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 1st Q 20201 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Business Inventories (February 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%.

This is a component of 1stQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index (April 2021)

- Index  83.  Previous was  82.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

 

Industrial Production  (March 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month +1.4%.    Previous was -2.6%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  +2.7% . Previous was  -3.7%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        74.4%. Previous was 73.4%

- Industrial Production year/year +1.0%

The supply side reawakens.

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf