May 28, 2021

Good Trade Deficit (April 2021)

- Trade Deficit   $85.2 B . Previous was  $82.3 B

This is a component of 1st GDP. The Trade Deficit reduces GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/PressHighlights.pdf

 

Retail Inventories (April 2021)

- Month over Month -1.6% . Previous was -1.4%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (April 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.8%. Previous was 1.1%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Chicago PMI (May 2021)

- Index 59.5. Previous was 58.2

Source: Institute For Supply Management - Chicago

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (April 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   -13.1%. Previous was +20.9%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.4%.Previous was +4.7%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.6%    %. Previous was 0.6%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    3.6%. Previous was 2.4%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.7%. Previous was  0.4%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  3.1%. Previous was 1.9%

The headline is difficult to interpret because March had a large bump due to stimulus handouts.

Source:  BEA  

 

Consumer Sentiment  (May 2021)

- Index 82.9. Previous was 82.8.

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey Center 

Durable Goods Orders (April 2021)

- New Orders month/month        -1.3%. Previous was 1.3%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    1.0%. Previous was 3.2%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    3.3%. Previous was 1.6%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

GDP  (1stQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    6.4%. Previous estimate was 6.4%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    11.3%.

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2021-second-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter

 

Corporate Profits (1stQ2021)

- After-Tax year/year    25.2%. Previous was 4.1%

- With Inventory & Consumption Adjustments year/year    8.8%. Previous was -2.4%

Source:  BEA

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/22/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  406,000. Previous was 444,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 420,472  a decrease of 34,131 from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  458,750. Previous was  504,750

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 23,826 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  90,541 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 49,272 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 175,255

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (April 2021)

- Month/month -4.4%. Previous was +1.7%.

Source:  National Association of Realtors

May 26, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/21/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -4.0%.  Previous weeks were -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, and -5.0%,

- Refinance Index week/week -7.0%. Previous weeks  were 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week -4.2%. Previous weeks were -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, and -4.1%.

Source:  MBA    Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/may/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x280264

May 25, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/22/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +13.6%. Previous was 12.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (March 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    1.6%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month    2.2%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        13.3%. Previous was 11.9%

Flat supply + increased demand = higher prices.

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (March 2021)

- month/month +1.4%. Previous was +0.9%

- year/year +13.9%. Previous was +12.4%

Source:  FHFA  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-HPI-April-2021.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (May 2021)

- Index 117.2. Previous was 121.7.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

New Home Sales  (April 2021)

-  Annual rate  863,000. Previous was 1,021,000.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

PMI Composite  (May 2021)

- Composite Index       68.1.  Previous was 63.5

- Manufacturing Index 61.5.  Previous was 60.5

- Services Index           70.1.  Previous was 64.7

Source:  Markit Economics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/392edb090fd34a7cb68bf22a1ddb7789

 

Existing Home Sales (April 2021)

- Annual Rate  5,850,000. Previous was 6,010,000

- Month over Month  -3.7%. Year over Year 12.3%

The median existing-home price² for all housing types in April was $341,600, up 19.1% from April 2020 ($286,800), as every region recorded price increases. This is a record high and marks 110 straight months of year-over-year gains. Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in April, down from 18 days in March and from 27 days in April 2020.

Existing Home Sales have declined fro 3 consecutive months. This is for lack of supply and lack of supply drives prices up.

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

May 20, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/15/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  444,000. Previous was 478,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted totaled 454,634 a decrease of 37,395 (or -7.6 percent) from  previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  504,750. Previous was  535,250

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 78,645  

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by 678,672  

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 150,217  

The total receiving any Unemployment Benefit was 15,975,448  a decrease of 886,568  

Source:  Labor Department  Details:   https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (April 2021)

- Month over Month +1.6%. Previous was +1.3%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

May 19, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/14/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -4.0%.  Previous weeks were +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, and +0.1%

- Refinance Index week/week 4.0%. Previous weeks  were +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, -5.0%, and -4.0%

- Composite Index week/week . Previous weeks were +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, and -4.1%.

Source:  MBA    Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/may/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

May 19, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 5/14/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -4.0%.  Previous weeks were +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, -12.0%, -6.0%, -5.0%, and +0.1%

- Refinance Index week/week 4.0%. Previous weeks  were +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, -5.0%, +0.1%, -11.0%, -5.0%, and -4.0%

- Composite Index week/week . Previous weeks were +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, -11.4%, -5.1%, and -4.1%.

Source:  MBA    Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/may/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

Housing Starts and Permits  (March  2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,569,000. Previous was 1.733,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,760,000. Previous was 1.755,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1,500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019, went above that for 2

months and then had the COVID crash. Home prices are increasing at an unhealthy rate due to lack of supply. In order to make up for the shortfall of Housing Starts over the past 14 years we need 

Starts at a level of 2,200,000 for 10 years. 

SFR Starts were 1,087,000 annualized which was +58.7% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 5/15/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +12.6%. Previous was 13.3%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Housing Market Index ( May 2021)

- Index 83. Previous was 83

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders. The survey
asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.