June 29, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 626/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 18.2%. Previous was 17.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (April 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    1.6%. Previous was 1.6%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month    2.1%. Previous was 2.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        14.9%. Previous was 13.4%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (March 2021)

- month/month +1.8%. Previous was +1.6%

- year/year +15.7%. Previous was +14.0%

Source:  FHFA  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/FHFA-HPI-Monthly_6292021.pdf

 

Consumer Confidence  (June 2021)

- Index 127.3. Previous was 120.0.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

June 25, 2021

Personal Income and Outlays  (May 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   -2.0%. Previous was -13.1%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.0%.Previous was +0.9%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.4%    %. Previous was 0.6%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    3.9%. Previous was 3.6%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.5%. Previous was  0.7%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  3.4%. Previous was 1.1%

The drops in income in April and May are the result of the end of government handouts. The increase in PCE (an inflation metric) is large but mainly limited to several components - air travel, used cars, and car rentals.  Spending was flat. Folks spent more on services and less on expensive items.  In essence what we are seeing is transition out of the lockdowns making it difficult to draw implications from the data.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income

 

Consumer Sentiment (June 2021)

- Index 85.5. Previous was 86.4

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

June 24, 2021

Jobless Claims (week ended 6/19/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  411,000. Previous was 418,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled totaled 393,078 decrease of 14,720  

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  397,5750. Previous was  396,250

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 7,000

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  175,357 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 107,931

Total receiving any UI increased by 3,756 

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Durable Goods Orders (May 2021)

- New Orders month/month        +2.3%. Previous was -0.8%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.3%. Previous was 1.7%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    -0.1%. Previous was 2.7%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

GDP  (1stQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    6.4%. Previous estimate was 6.4%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    11.4%.

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-1st

 

Corporate Profits (1stQ2021)

- After-Tax year/year    28.1%. Previous was 25.2%

- With Inventory & Consumption Adjustments year/year    15.5%. Previous was 8.8%

Source:  BEA

 

Good Trade Deficit (May 2021)

- Trade Deficit   $88.1 B . Previous was  $85.7 B

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP. The Trade Deficit reduces GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/PressHighlights.pdf

 

Retail Inventories (May 2021)

- Month over Month -0.8% . Previous was -1.6%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (May 2021)

- Month over Month  +1.1%. Previous was 1.0%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/19/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 17.6%. Previous was 16.4%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Existing Home Sales (November 2020)

- Annual Rate  5,800,000. Previous was 5,850,000

- Month over Month  -2.7%. Year over Year 33.9%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/

Jobless Claims (week ended 6/12/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  412,000. Previous was 375,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 402,352  an increase of 37,174 (or 10.2 percent) from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  395,500. Previous was  403,000

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 167,101 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  253,918 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 74,507 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 559,873

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Leading Economic Indicators (May 2021)

- Month over Month  +1.3%. Previous was +1.3%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/11/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +2.0%.  Previous weeks were +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, and +2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week . Previous weeks  were 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week . Previous weeks were  +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, and +0.5%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/june/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Housing Starts and Permits  (May 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,572,000. Previous was 1.517,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,681,000. Previous was 1,733,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019, went above that for 2 months and then had the COVID crash. Increasing Starts to 2,200,000 for a period of 10 years is the key to affordable housing.

SFR Starts were 1,098,000 annual rate.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices (May 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     1.1%. Previous was +0.8%

- Import Prices year/year    11.3%. Previous was 10.8%

- Export Prices month/month   +2.2%. Previous was +1.1%

- Export Prices year/year    +17.4%. Previous was +14.9%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

June 15, 2021

PPI  (May 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.8%. Previous was 0.6%

- PPI-FD year/year        6.6%. Previous was 6.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.7%. Previous was 0.7%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        4.8%. Previous was +4.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.7%. Previous was 0.7%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.3%. Previous was +4.5%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

 

Retail Sales  (May 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  -1.3%. Previous was 0.0%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  -0.7%. Previous was -0.8%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  -0.8%   Previous was -0.8%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 2nd 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 6/12/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +16.4%. Previous was 14.5%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Industrial Production   (May 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.8%.    Previous was +0.7%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  +0.9% . Previous was  -0.1%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        75.2%. Previous was 74.6%

- Industrial Production year/year +16.3%

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Business Inventories (April 2021)

- Inventories month/month  -0.2%. Previous was +0.3%.

This is a component of 2nd3rdQ 2021 GDP.

 

Housing Market Index (June 2021)

- Index  81.  Previous was   83.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

 

Consumer Sentiment (June 2021)

- Index 86.4. Previous was 82.8.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center Details: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/26/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  376,000. Previous was 385,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 367,117 a decrease of 58,196 from previous

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  402,500. Previous was  428,000

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 1,492

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  12,730

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 69,869 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 95,099

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

CPI (May 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.6% . Previous was 0.8%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.0%. Previous was 4.2%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.7%. Previous was +0.9%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  3.8%. Previous was 3.0%

The year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.0% is the highest in 13 years.  The month/month core fell.  

Inflation is and should be a concern but it is not evident that it is going to be out of control. Recovery from the  pandemic will generate odd data through 4thQ. 

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

June 9, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 6/4/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.3%.  Previous weeks were -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, +3.0%, +2.0%, +7.0%, +2.0%, and -12.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -5.0%. Previous weeks  were -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  -3.0%, -3.5%, -4.0%, -5.0%, and +0.1%

- Composite Index week/week -3.1%. Previous weeks were  -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, -2.5%, -2.2%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -11.4%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/june/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x280704

 

Wholesale Inventories (April 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.8%. Previous was +1.2%.

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf