July 16, 2021

Retail Sales  (June 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.6%. Previous was -1,7%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +1.3%. Previous was -0.9%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  +1.1%   Previous was -1.0%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 2nd 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.  The June data was better than expectation indicative of a reopening economy. 

The +1.3% ex-auto shows the the lack of supply of autos hurt the overall number. The underlying fact remains  - it is not the Fed or politicians which drive the economy but the consumer.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Business Inventories (May 2021)

- Inventories month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -0.2%.

This is a component of 2ndQ 2021 GDP.

 

Consumer Sentiment (July 2021)

- Index 80.8. Previous was 85.5.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Jobless Claims (week ended 7/10/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 360,000. Previous was 373,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 383,166 an increase of 544 from previous

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 382,500. Previous was 397,000

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 21,082

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by 137,643

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 197,748

Total receiving any UI decreased by 372,279

Source: Labor Department Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Import and Export Prices (June 2021)

- Import Prices month/month 1.0%. Previous was +1.4%

- Import Prices year/year 11.2%. Previous was 11.6%

- Export Prices month/month +1.2%. Previous was +17.5%

- Export Prices year/year +16.8%. Previous was +17.4%

Source: BLS Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

Industrial Production (June 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.4%. Previous was +0.8%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month -0.1% . Previous was +0.9%

- Capacity Utilization Rate 75.4%. Previous was 75.1%

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/9/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +8.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, and -2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +20.0% . Previous weeks  were -2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, and -5.5%.

- Composite Index week/week +16.0%- Previous weeks were  1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, and 2.2%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/july/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

PPI  (November 2020)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.31%. Previous was 0.3%

- PPI-FD year/year        0.8%. Previous was 0.5%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.1%. Previous was 0.1%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        1.4%. Previous was +1.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.1%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    0.9%. Previous was +0.8%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

July 13, 2021

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (June 2021)

- Index 102.5. Previous was 99.6

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. 

This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

Source:  NFIB Details:  https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-pauses-in-may-as-labor-shortage-slows-growth/

 

CPI (June 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.9% . Previous was 0.6%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.4%. Previous was 5.0%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.9%. Previous was +0.7%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.5%. Previous was 3.8%

Treasury and MBS markets showed little reaction to CPI.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

Wholesale Inventories (May 2021)

- Month over Month +0.8%. Previous was 1.1%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

Jobless Claims (week ended 7/3/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  373,000. Previous was 371,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, , totaled 369,661 in the week ending July 3, an increase of 3,147 from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  394,500. Previous was  394,750

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 54,410

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  110,799 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 353,884 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 449,642

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

July 7, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/2/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%.  Previous weeks were -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, +6.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, -2.0%, and +3.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks  were 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, -1.0%, +10.0%, -5.0%, -5.5%,  and -3.0%

- Composite Index week/week -1.8%. Previous weeks were  -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%,+8.6%, 3.7%, -5.0%, 2.2%, and -2.5%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/july/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/3/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 19.4%. Previous was 18.2%

Source: Redbook Research Inc

 

JOLTS  (May 2021)

- Job Openings 9,209 ,000.   Previous was 9,193,000

Paying people to not work is not working.

Graph of recent history: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

PMI Composite Final (June 2021)

- Composite Index    63.7. Previous was 68.7

- Services Index 64.6. Previous was 70.3

Details here:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

 

ISM Services Index (June 2021)

- Index 60.4.  Previous was 64.0.

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

July 2, 2021

BLS Employment Situation Report (June 2021)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  850,000.   Previous was 583,000

- Unemployment Rate   5.9%. Previous was  5.8%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 662,000.  Previous was   516,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  23,000. Previous was   -32,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.6%. Previous was  61.6%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.3%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    3.6%. Previous was  1.9%

- Average Workweek        34.7 hours. Previous was  34.8 hours  

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

Trade Deficit (May 2021)

- Deficit $71.2 billion.  Previous was $69.1 billion

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-may-2021

 

Factory Orders (May 2021)

- Month over Month +1.7%. Previous was -0.6%.    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf