August 31, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/28/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 18.6%. Previous was 16.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (June 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    1.8%. Previous was 1.8%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   2.0%. Previous was 2.1%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        19.1%. Previous was 7.0%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (June 2021)

- month/month +1.6%. Previous was +1.8%

- year/year +18.8%. Previous was +18.1%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/US-House-Prices-Rise-17pt4-pct-over-the-last-year-Up-4pt9-pct-from-the-1st-qtr.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (July 2021)

- Index 113.8. Previous was 129.1.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

August 30, 2021

Pending Home Sales Index  (July 2021)

- Month over Month -1.8%. Previous was -1.9%.

This accounts only for sales of Existing Homes.

Source: National Association of Realtors  Details:  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales

 

August 27, 2021

Personal Income and Outlays  (July 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   +1.1%. Previous was +0.2%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.3%.Previous was +1.1%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.4%    %. Previous was 0.5%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    4.2%. Previous was 4.0%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.3%. Previous was  0.5%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  3.6%. Previous was 3.6%

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.toc.htm

 

Good Trade Deficit (July 2021)

- Trade Deficit   $86.4 B . Previous was  $91.2 B

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP. The Trade Deficit reduces GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/PressHighlights.pdf

 

Retail Inventories (July 2021)

- Month over Month +0.4% . Previous was +0.5%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (June 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.6% . Previous was +1.2%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (July 2021)

- Index 70.3. Previous was 70.2

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

August 26, 2021

GDP  (2ndQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    6.6%. Previous estimate was 6.5%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    11.9%.

Source: BEA  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2021-second-estimate-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/21/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  363,000. Previous was 348,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled  297,765 a decrease of 11,699 from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  366,500. Previous was  378,000

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 41,672  

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by  104,706 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 52,089 

Total receiving any UI increased by 182,165

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pd

August 25, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/20/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +3.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -2.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, and +1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks  were -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, and 4.0%

- Composite Index week/week +1.6%.  Previous weeks were -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, and +2.2%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/august/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x284144

 

Durable Goods Orders (July 2021)

- New Orders month/month  -1.0%. Previous was 0.8%

- Ex-Transportation month/month   + 0.7%. Previous was 0.3%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.0%. Previous was 0.5%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

August 24, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/21/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.6%. Previous was 15.0%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

New Home Sales  (July 2021)

- Annual Rate 708,000.  Previous was 676,000

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

August 23, 2021

PMI Composite (August 2021)

- Composite Index    55.4.  Previous was 63.7

- Manufacturing Index 61.2.  Previous was 62.1

- Services Index     55.2.  Previous was 64.6

Source:  Markit Economics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2ebf3c08ba874510879b6b2976cc98c4

 

Existing Home Sales  (July 2021)

- Annual Rate  5,990,000. Previous was 5,870,000

- Month over Month  +2.0%. Previous was +1.4%. Year over Year +1.5%. previous was 22.9%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

August 19, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/14/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  348,000. Previous was 377,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 308,574  a decrease of 14,469  from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  377,750. Previous was  396,750,

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 78,737 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  336,195 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 56,881  

Total receiving any UI decreased by 311,787  

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pd

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (July 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.7%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

August 18, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/13/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were +1.8%, -2.0%, -2.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, and -3.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  -5.0%. Previous weeks  were +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, and +3.0%

- Composite Index week/week -3.9%.  Previous weeks were +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, and -0.9%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/august/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Housing Starts and Permits  (July 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,534,000. Previous was 1.643,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,635,000. Previous was 1.594,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1,500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019, went above that for 2 months and then had the COVID crash. If we want affordable housing we should have 2,200,000 Starts/year for 10 years.

SFR Starts were 1,111,000 which was +27.2% year/year and -4.5% month/month.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

August 17, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/14/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.0%. Previous was 16.2%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Industrial Production   (July 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.9%.    Previous was +0.2%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  +1.4% . Previous was  -0.3%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        76.1%. Previous was 75.4%

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Retail Sales  (July 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  -1.1%. Previous was +0.6%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  -0.4%. Previous was +1.6%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  -0.7%   Previous was +1.3%

The positive month/month numbers in June were the result of the economy reopening. This dissipated in July.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Business Inventories (June 2021)

- Inventories month/month  0.8%. Previous was +0.6%.

This is a component of 2ndQ 2021 GDP.

 

Housing Market Index (August 2021)

- Index  75.  Previous was  80.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.