August 13, 2021

Import and Export Prices  (July 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     0.3%. Previous was +1.1%

- Import Prices year/year    10.2%. Previous was 11.2%

- Export Prices month/month   +1.3%. Previous was +1.2%

- Export Prices year/year    +17.2%. Previous was +16.8%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Consumer Sentiment  (August 2021)

- Index 70.2. Previous was 81.2.

This is supposed to forecast Consumer Spending in the next three months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

August 12, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 8/7/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  375,000. Previous was 385,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 320,517 a decrease of 5,198  from the previous week 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  396.250. Previous was  394,500

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 342,689

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  336,195 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 393,638 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 919,593

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pd

 

PPI  (July 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    1.0%. Previous was 1.0%

- PPI-FD year/year        7.8%. Previous was 7.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    1.0%. Previous was 1.0%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        1.0%. Previous was +1.0%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.9%. Previous was 0.5%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.1%. Previous was +6.1%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

August 11, 2021

CPI (July 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.5% . Previous was 0.9%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.4%. Previous was 5.4%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.3%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.3%. Previous was 4.5%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 8/6/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.8%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, -2.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, and -5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  +3.2%. Previous weeks  were -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, and +0.1%

- Composite Index week/week +2.8%.  Previous weeks were -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, and -1.0%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/august/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

August 10, 2021

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (July 2021)

- Index 99.7. Previous was 102.5

 

Worker Productivity & Cost (2ndQ2021)

- Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate    2.3%. Previous was 4.3%

- Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate    1.0%. Previous was -2.8%

Productivity is total Labor Cost/GDP.  

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/lpc/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 8/7/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year +16.2%. Previous was 17.2%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

August 9, 2021

JOLTS  (June 2021)

- Job Openings 10,073 ,000.   Previous was 9,483,000

Paying people to not work is not working.

Graph of recent history: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

August 6, 2021

BLS Employment Situation Report (July 2021)

 Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  943,000.   Previous was 938,000

- Unemployment Rate   5.4%. Previous was  5.7%

- Private Payrolls - month/month 703,000.  Previous was   769,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  27,000. Previous was   39,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.7%. Previous was  61.6%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.4%. Previous was  0.4%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    4.0%. Previous was  3.7%

- Average Workweek        34.8 hours. Previous was  34.8 hours  

Source:  BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

 

 

Wholesale Inventories (June 2021)

- Month over Month  1.1%. Previous was 1.3%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 7/31/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  385,000. Previous was 399,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 323,763  a decrease of 20,602 from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  394000. Previous was  394,250

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 625 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  89,180 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 12,324

Total receiving any UI decreased by 181,251

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Challenger Job Cuts  (July 2021)

- Announced Layoffs 18,942. Previous was    20,476 

 

Trade Deficit (June 2021)

- Deficit $75.7 billion.  Previous was $71.2 billion

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-june-2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/30/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, -3.0%, -4.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -5.0%, and +6.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks  were +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, -5.0%, -7.0%, 4.0%, +3.0%, +0.1%, and -1.0%

- Composite Index week/week -1.7%.  Previous weeks were  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, -4.0% , -4.2%., -4.2%, +2.2%, -0.9%, -2.5%, -1.0%, and +8.6%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/august/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

ADP Private Jobs  (July 2021)

- Private Jobs +330,000. Previous was +680,000

Still growing but at a slower pace.

Source: ADP   Details: https://adpemploymentreport.com/2021/July/NER/NER-July-2021.aspx

 

PMI Composite Final  (July 2021)

- Composite  59.9. Previous was 63.7

- Services     59.9. Previous was 64.6

 

ISM Services Index  (July 2021)

- Index  64.1  . Previous was 60.1

August 3, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 7/31/2021)

- Store Sales year/year +17.2%.  Previous was +16.0

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Factory Orders (June 2021)

- Month over Month +1.5% . Previous was +1.7%.    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

August 2, 2021

PMI Manufacturing Final  (July 2021)

- Index 63.4. Previous was 62.1

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (July 2021)

- Index 59.5. Previous was 60.6

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

 

Construction Spending  (June 2021)

- Month over Month    +0.1%. Previous was -0.3%

- Year over Year 7.5%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf