New Home Sales (August 2021)

- Annual Rate 740,000. Previous was 708,000

Source: Census Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

September 24, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/18/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  351,000. Previous was 332,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled  306,209 in the week ending September 18, an increase of 40,307 from previous 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  335,750. Previous was  335,750

Number following are for week ended 9/4:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 290,134

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  591,108

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 161,240 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 856,440 

11,250,287 were receiving some UI benefit

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

PMI Composite (September 2021)

- Composite Index    54.5.  Previous was 55.5

- Manufacturing Index 60.5..  Previous was 60.8

- Services Index     54.4.  Previous was 55.1

Source:  Markit Economics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3ea9d747369341f98b0e55f542fd0d27

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (August 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.9%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

 

September 22, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/17/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week  +2.0%. Previous weeks were  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, and +0.3%

- Refinance Index week/week +7.0%. Previous weeks  were -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week +4.9%.  Previous weeks were  +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%,  -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, and -3.1%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/september/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x285440

 

Existing Home Sales (August 2021)

- Annual Rate  88Previous was 6,000,000

- Month over Month  -2.0%. Previous was +2.0%. Year over Year -1.5%. previous was +1.5%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

September 21, 2021

Housing Starts and Permits  (August 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,615,000. Previous was 1,554,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,728,000. Previous was 1,630,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1,500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded 

population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019, went above that for 2 months and then had the COVID crash. If we want affordable housing we should have 2,200,000 

Starts/year for 10 years.

SFR Starts were 1,076,000 which was +5.2% year/year and -2.8% month/month.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/11/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 17.1%. Previous was 15.3%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

September 20, 2021

Housing Market Index (September 2021)

- Index  76.  Previous was   95

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

Source: NAHB  Details: https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index

September 17. 2021

Consumer Sentiment (September 2021)

- Index 71.0. Previous was 70.3

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.um

September 16, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/11/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  332,000. Previous was 312,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled  262,619 in the week ending September 11, a decrease of 23,331

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  335,750. Previous was  340,000

Number following are for week ended 8/28:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 6,097 

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by  396,709 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 787

Total receiving any UI increased by 178,937 

12,106,727 were receiving some UI benefit

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Retail Sales  (August 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.7%. Previous was -1.1%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +1.8%. Previous was -0.4%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  +2.0%   Previous was -1.4%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Business Inventories (July 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.9%.

This is a component of 3rdQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

September 15, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 9/10/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +8.0%. Previous weeks were -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, +0.3%, and -3.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -3.0%. Previous weeks  were -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, -5.0%, and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week +0.3% .  Previous weeks were  -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%,  -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, 2.1%, +4.2%, -3.1%, and -4.0%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/september/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Import and Export Prices  (August 2021)

- Import Prices month/month  -0.3%. Previous was  0.3%

- Import Prices year/year  +9.0%. Previous was 10.3%

- Export Prices month/month   +0.4%. Previous was +1.1%

- Export Prices year/year    +16.8%. Previous was +17.0%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Industrial Production   (August 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.4%.    Previous was +0.8%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  +0.2% . Previous was +1.6%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        76.4%. Previous was 76.2%

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

September 14, 2021

CPI (August 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.3% . Previous was 0.5%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.3%. Previous was 5.4%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.1%. Previous was 0.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.0%. Previous was 4.3%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 9/4/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.5%. Previous was 18.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

September 10, 2021

PPI  (August 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.7%. Previous was 1.0%

- PPI-FD year/year        8.3%. Previous was 7.8%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.6%. Previous was 1.0%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        +7.3%. Previous was +6.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.3%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.3%. Previous was +6.1%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

Wholesale Inventories   (October 2020)

- Inventories +0.6%.  Previous was +1.1%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf