October 29, 2021

Employment Cost Index (3rdQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter    1.3%. Previous was +0.7%

- Year over Year        3.7%. Previous was +2.9%

This measure not just wages and salary but added cost of health care benefits. Employment Cost is always of concern regarding inflation because unlike to cost of commodities it rarely moves down.  This print will contribute to inflation fear,

Source: BLS  Details:  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (September 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   -1.0%. Previous was +0.2%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  +0.6%.Previous was +0.8%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.3%    %. Previous was 0.3%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    4.4%. Previous was 4.2%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.2%. Previous was  0.3%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  3.6%. Previous was 3.6%

PCE is an inflation metric.

Source:  BEA   Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income

 

Consumer Sentiment (October 2021)

- Index 71.7. Previous was 71.4

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

October 28, 2021

GDP  (3rdQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    2.0%. Previous estimate was 6.7%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized   1.6%. Previous was 12.0%

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2021-advance-estimate

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/23/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  281,000. Previous was 290,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 245,482 in the week ending October 23, a decrease of 11,733 (or -4.6 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  299,250. Previous was  320,000

Number following are for week ended 10/9:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 94,839 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  247,936

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 187,188 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 448,386  

2,830,661 were receiving some UI benefit.  1 year previous there were 23,479,913 receiving UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (September 2021)

- Month over Month -2.3%. Previous was 8.1%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales. Supply is thin.

Source: National Association of Realtors

 

October 27, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/22/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +4.0%. Previous weeks were  -5.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, and -1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  -2.0%. Previous weeks  were  -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, and 8.0%

- Composite Index week/week +0.3%.   Previous weeks were  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, and 1.8%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x287209

 

Durable Goods Orders (September 2021)

- New Orders month/month        -0.4%. Previous was 1.3%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.3%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.8%. Previous was 1.5%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

Good Trade Deficit (September 2021)

- Trade Deficit   $96.3 B . Previous was  $88.2 B

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP. The Trade Deficit reduces GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/PressHighlights.pdf

 

Retail Inventories (September 2021)

- Month over Month -0.2% . Previous was +0.1%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (September 2021)

- Month over Month  1.1%. Previous was 1.2%

This is a component of 3rfQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

October 26, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/23/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.6%. Previous was 15.1%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (August 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +0.9%. Previous was 1.5%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   1.2%. Previous was 1.6%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        19.8%. Previous was 19.7%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (August 2021)

- month/month +1.0%. Previous was +1.4%

- year/year +18.5%. Previous was +18.2%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Up-1pt0-Percent-in-August-Up-18pt5-Percent-from-Last-Year.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (July 2021)

- Index 113.8. Previous was 129.1.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

New Home Sales (September 2021)

- Annual Rate 800,000. Previous was 740,000

 

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

October 22, 2021

PMI Composite Flash   (October 2021)

- Composite Index 57.3

- Manufacturing Index 59.2    

- Services Index    58.2

Source:  IHS Markit

October 20, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/8/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -5.0%. Previous weeks were  +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, and -5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  -7.0%. Previous weeks  were  -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, and 3.0%

- Composite Index week/week -6.3%.   Previous weeks were  +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%,  -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, and -6.9%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x286843

October 19, 2021

Housing Starts and Permits  (September 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,555,000. Previous was 1,615,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,589,000. Previous was 1,721,000

Housing is expensive because supply is restrained by local zoning. We need about 2.2 million Starts/year for 10 years to make up for the present shortage.

SFR Starts were 1,143,000 which was -2.3% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 10/16/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.1%. Previous was 14.8%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

October 15, 2021

Retail Sales  (September 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.7%. Previous was +0.9%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +0.8%. Previous was +2.0%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  +0.7%   Previous was +2.1%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 3rd 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Business Inventories (August 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +0.6%. Previous was +0.6%.

This is a component of 3rdQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices  (September 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     0.4%. Previous was -0.3%

- Import Prices year/year    +9.2%. Previous was +8.9%

- Export Prices month/month   +0.1%. Previous was +0.4%

- Export Prices year/year    +16.3%. Previous was +16.8%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Consumer Sentiment  (October 2021)

- index  71.4. Previous was 72.8

This is a survey index from University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center.  Details: http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

 

October 14, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/9/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  293,000. Previous was 329,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled  277,632 in the week ending October 9, an increase of 16,017 (or 6.1 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  334,250. Previous was  344,750

Number following are for week ended 9/25:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 65,828

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  98,587

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 190,379

Total receiving any UI decreased by 523,426  

3,649,013 were receiving some UI benefit

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

PPI  (September 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.5%. Previous was 0.7%

- PPI-FD year/year     8.6% . Previous was 8.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        +6.8%. Previous was +6.7%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.1%. Previous was 0.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.9%. Previous was +6.3%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

October 13, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 10/1/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.2%. Previous weeks were  -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. -6.0%, +8.0%, -1.0%, -5.0%, and +1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -1.0% . Previous weeks  were  -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%, -+20.0%, 2.0%, 8.0%, 3.0%, and 5.5%

- Composite Index week/week +0.2%%.   Previous weeks were  -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%,  -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, -4.0%, +16.0%, 1.8%, -6.9%, and 2.1%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/october/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

CPI (September 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.4% . Previous was 0.3%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   5.4%. Previous was 5.3%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.0%. Previous was 4.0%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm