November 30, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/20/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.9%. Previous was 153%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (September 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +1.2%. Previous was 1.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   1.0%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        19.5%. Previous was 19.8%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (September 2021)

- month/month +0.9%. Previous was +1.0%

- year/year +17.7%. Previous was +18.5%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2021-Q3.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (November 2021)

- Index 109.5. Previous was 111.6.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 month

Pending Home Sales Index  (October 2021)

- Month over Month +7.5%. Previous was -2.3%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors

ovember 24, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/19/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week 5.0%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%, +8.0%, -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, and -6.0%. 

- Refinance Index week/week +0.4%. Previous weeks were  -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, and +9.0%.

- Composite Index week/week +1.8%.   Previous weeks were -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, and -1.7%,

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/november/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x287934

 

Durable Goods Orders (October 2021)

- New Orders month/month        -0.5%. Previous was -0.4%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.5%. Previous was 0.7%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.6%. Previous was 1.3%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (October 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   +0.5%. Previous was -1.0%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  1.3%.Previous was +0.6%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.6%    %. Previous was 0.4%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    5.0%. Previous was 4.4%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.4%. Previous was  0.2%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.1%. Previous was 3.7%

Source:  BEA  

 

GDP  (3rdQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    2.1%. Previous estimate was 2.9%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    1.7%. Previous was 1.6%

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2021-second-estimate-corporate-profits-3rd-quarter

 

 

Trade Deficit (October 2021)

- Deficit $82.9 billion.  Previous was $97.0 billion

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-july-2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/20/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  199,000. Previous was 270,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 258,622 an increase of 18,187 from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  252,250. Previous was  273,250

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 168,253

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  456,310

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 121,418  

Total receiving any UI decreased by 752,390

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Retail Inventories (October 2021)

- Month over Month 0.1% . Previous was -0.2%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (October 2021)

- Inventories +2.2%.  Previous was +1.4%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

New Home Sales (October 2021)

- Annual Rate 745,000. Previous was 742,000

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

November 23, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/20/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.3%. Previous was 16.2%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

PMI Composite (November 2021)

- Composite Index    56.5.  

- Manufacturing Index 59.1.  

- Services Index     57.0.  

Source:  Markit Economics  Details:  https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c4f8600b63124921b109fba93bf6d523

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/13/2021)

 

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  268,000. Previous was 269,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 238,850 in the week ending  November 13, a decrease of 18,183 (or -7.1 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  272,750. Previous was  278,500

Number following are for week ended 10/30:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 68,092

Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by  537,467

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 16,478  

Total receiving any UI increased by 618,804 

3,184,657 were receiving some UI benefit.  1 year previous there were  20,815,977 receiving UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (October 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.9%. Previous was +0.2%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

November 17, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/12/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +2.0% . Previous weeks were  +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. and -6.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week  -5.0%. Previous weeks  were  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  and -3.0%,

- Composite Index week/week -2.8%.   Previous weeks were +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  and +5.7%.

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/november/october-new-home-purchase-mortgage-applications-decreased-152-percent

 

Housing Starts and Permits  (October 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,520,000. Previous was 1.530,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,650,000. Previous was 1.586,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. SFR Starts were 726,000 which was +28.3% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

November 16, 2021

Retail Sales  (October 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month 1.7%. Previous was 0.8%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month 1.7%. Previous was 0.7%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  1.4%   Previous was 0,5%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 4th 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices  (October 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     1.2%. Previous was 0.4%

- Import Prices year/year    10.7%. Previous was 9.2%

- Export Prices month/month   +0.6%. Previous was +0.2%

- Export Prices year/year    1.5%. Previous was 0.4%

 

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/13/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 16.2%. Previous was 15.6%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Industrial Production  (October 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month 1.6%.    Previous was -1.3%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  1.2% . Previous was  -0.7%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        76.34%. Previous was 75.2%

- Industrial Production year/year +5.1%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf

 

Business Inventories (September 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +0.7%. Previous was +0.8%.

This is a component of 3rdQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index ( November 2021)

- Index  83.  Previous was   80

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

November 12, 2021

Consumer Sentiment (November 2021)

- Index 66.8. Previous was 71.7

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

 

JOLTS  (September 2020)

- Job Openings 10,438,000.  Previous was 10,430,000.

If it is going to take higher wages to fill these jobs that will add to inflation.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

November 10, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 11/5/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +3.0%. Previous weeks were  -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., +1.8%, -2.0%, -.0%. and -6.0%, and +8.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +7.0%. Previous weeks  were  4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +3.2%, -2.0%, +9.0%,  -3.0%,  and +20.0%,

- Composite Index week/week +5.5%.   Previous weeks were -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, -3.9%, +2.8%, -1.7%,  +5.7%, and -4.0%.

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/november/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

CPI (October 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.9% . Previous was 0.4%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   6.2%. Previous was 5.4%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.6%. Previous was +0.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.6%. Previous was 4.0%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/6/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  267,000. Previous was 271,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 254,478 in the week ending November 6, an increase of 12,759 (or 5.3 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  278,000. Previous was  285,250

Number following are for week ended 10/23:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 102,420 

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  23,516 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 22,812 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 107,095  

2,565,853  were receiving some UI benefit.  1 year previous there were 21,713,655 receiving UI.

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

November 9. 2021

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (October 2021)

- Index    98.2. Previous was 99.1. 

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

Details:  https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-decreases-owners-uncertain-about-future-business-conditions/

 

PPI  (October 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.6%. Previous was 0.5%

- PPI-FD year/year     8.6% . Previous was 8.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        +6.8%. Previous was +6.87%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.2%. Previous was +5.9%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/6/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.6%. Previous was 15.7%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.