December 29, 2021

Trade Deficit (November 2021)

- Deficit $97.8 billion.  Previous was $83.2 billion

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-october-2021

 

Retail Inventories (November  2021)

- Month over Month 2.0%. Previous was 0.1%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (November 2021)

- Inventories +1.2%.  Previous was +2.2%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (November 2021)

- Month over Month -2.2%. 

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors

 

December 28, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/25/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 21.4%. Previous was 16.4%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (October 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +0.9%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   0.8%. Previous was 0.8%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        18.4%. Previous was 19.1%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (October 2021)

- month/month +1.1%. Previous was +0.9%

- year/year +17.5%. Previous was +17.7%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-Report-2021-Q3.aspx

December 23, 2021

Durable Goods Orders (November 2021)

- New Orders month/month        2.5%. Previous was -0.45%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.58%. Previous was 0.5%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    -0.1%. Previous was 0.9%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/18/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  205,000. Previous was 206,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 254,006 in the week ending December 18, a decrease of 11,686 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  206,250. Previous was  203,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 12/4:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 230,448

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  60,426

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 19,979  

Total receiving any UI decreased by 320,452

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (November 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   +0.4%. Previous was +0.5%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.6%. Previous was 1.3%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.6%    %. Previous was 0.6%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    5.07%. Previous was 5.1%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.5%. Previous was  0.5%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.7%. Previous was 4.2%

Source:  BEA  

 

New Home Sales (November 2021)

- Annual Rate 744,000. Previous was 745,000

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (December 2021)

- Index 70.6. Previous was 70.4

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

December 22, 2021

GDP  (3rdQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    2.3%. Previous estimate was 2.1%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    2.0%. Previous was 1.7%

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-3rd

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/17/2021)

 

- Purchase Index week/week -3.3%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -5.0%., +5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, and +3.0%,

- Refinance Index week/week +2.2%. Previous weeks  were  -6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, and +1.0%

- Composite Index week/week -0.6%.   Previous weeks were -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, and -2.4%

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/december/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x288292

 

Consumer Confidence  (December 2021)

- Index 115.8. Previous was 111.0.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

Existing Home Sales (November 2021)

- Annual Rate  6,460,000. Previous was 6,340,000

- Month over Month  +1.9%. Year over Year -2.9%

 

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

December 16, 2021

Housing Starts and Permits  (November 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,679,000. Previous was 1.502,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,712,000. Previous was 1,653,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. We were below that from Jan. 2007 to Dec. 2019, went above that for 2 months and then had the COVID crash. If we have another month of greater than 1.5 million the homebuilding will have accomplished something not seen in 14 years.

SFR Starts were 1,173,000 which was -0.8% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/11/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  206,000. Previous was 188,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 2267,509 in the week ending December 11, a decrease of 16,426 (or -5.8 percent) from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  203,750. Previous was  218,750

Numbers below are for the week ended November 27.

- Total receiving regular state UI increased by 403,147 

- Total receiving Pandemic UI increased by  69,653 

- Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI increased by 23,685   

- Total receiving any UI increased by 510,808  

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Industrial Production  (November 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.5%.    Previous was +1.6%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  +0.7% . Previous was  +1.2%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        76.8%. Previous was 77.5%

- Industrial Production year/year +5.3%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf

December 15, 2021

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/10/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -5.0%., +5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, and -1.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week -6.0%. Previous weeks  were   +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week -4.0% .   Previous weeks were +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, and +1.6%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/december/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x288240

 

Retail Sales  (November 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +1.8%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +0.3%. Previous was +1.8%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  0.2%   Previous was +1.6%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 4th 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices  (November 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     0.7%. Previous was +1.5%

- Import Prices year/year    +11.7%. Previous was +11.0%

- Export Prices month/month   +1.0%. Previous was +1.4%

- Export Prices year/year    +18.2%. Previous was +18.0%

These numbers are well above expectation.

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Business Inventories (October 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +1.2%. Previous was +0.8%.

This is a component of 4thQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index (December 2021)

- Index 84.  Previous was 83.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 

2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

December 14, 2021

PPI  (November 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.8%. Previous was 0.6%

- PPI-FD year/year        9.6%. Previous was 8.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.7%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        7.7%. Previous was +6.8%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.7%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.9%. Previous was +6.3%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/11/2021)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.7%. Previous was 15.3%

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

CPI (November 2021)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.8% . Previous was 0.9%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   6.8%. Previous was 6.2%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted  +0.5%. Previous was +0.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year  4.9%. Previous was 4.6%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

 

Consumer Sentiment (December 2021)

- Index 70.4. Previous was 67.4

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

December 9, 2021

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/4/2021)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  164,000. Previous was 222,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 280,665 in the week ending December 4, an increase of 63,680 (or 29.3 percent)

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  218,750. Previous was  237,750

Number below are for the week ended November 20

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 258,394

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  45,764 

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 33,721   

Total receiving any UI decreased by 350,527

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Wholesale Inventories (October  2021)

- Month over Month 2.3%. Previous was 1.4%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 12/3/2021)

- Purchase Index week/week -5.0%. Previous weeks were +5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  +8.0%,  -0.2%, +1.0%, +3.0%, -1.0%., and +1.8%

- Refinance Index week/week +9,0%. Previous weeks  were   15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, -3.0%, -3.0, -4.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, and +3.2%

- Composite Index week/week  +2.0%.   Previous weeks were -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, +4.9, +0.3%, -1.9%, -2.4%, +1.6%, and -3.9%

Source:  MBA    https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/december/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x288179

 

JOLTS  (October 2021)

- Job Openings 13,033,000.  Previous was 10,438,000.

If it is going to take higher wages to fill these jobs that will add to inflation.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf