January 28, 2022

Personal Income and Outlays  (December 2021)

- Personal Income month/month   0.3%. Previous was -0.5%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  -0.6%.Previous was +0.4%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.4%    %. Previous was 0.6%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    5.8%. Previous was 5.7%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.5%. Previous was  0.5%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.9%. Previous was 4.7%

Source:  BEA  

Employment Cost Index 4thQ 2021

- Quarter over Quarter    1.0%. Previous was 1.3%

- Year over Year        4.0%. Previous was 3.7%

 

Consumer Sentiment (December 2021)

- Index 70.6. Previous was 70.4

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

January 27, 2022

Durable Goods Orders (December 2021)

- New Orders month/month        -0.9%. Previous was 3.2%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.4%. Previous was 1.1%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.0%. Previous was 0.3%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

GDP  (4thQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    6.9%. Previous quarter was 2.3%. 

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    3.3%. Previous was 2.0%

Source: BEA  Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2021-advance-estimate

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/22/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  260,000. Previous was 290,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 267,573 in the  week ending 21.5 percent) from the  previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  247,000. Previous was  232,000

Numbers below are for the week ended 1/15:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 11,956

Total receiving any UI increased by 8,444

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (December 2021)

- Month over Month -3.8%. Previous was -2.3%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors

January 25, 2022

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/15/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.6%. Previous was 15.2%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (November 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +1.2%. Previous was 1.0%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   1.0%. Previous was 0.8%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        18.3%. Previous was 18.5%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (November 2021)

- month/month +1.1%. Previous was +0.1%

- year/year +17.5%. Previous was +17.4%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index_January-2022.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (January 2022)

- Index 113.8. Previous was 115.2.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

January 24, 2022

PMI Composite Flash   (January 2022)

- Composite Index 50.8

- Manufacturing Index 55.0   

- Services Index    50.9

Source:  IHS Markit

January 21, 2022

Leading Economic Indicators  (December 2021)

- Month over Month  +0.8%. Previous was +1.1%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/15/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  286,000. Previous was 231,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled   337,417 in the week ending January  15, a decrease of  83,418 (or 37,417 in the week  ending 19.8 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  231,000. Previous was  210,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 1/15:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 179,001 

Claims for  Pandemic UI and Emergency Pandemic UI are no longer reported.

Total receiving any UI increased by 180,114

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Existing Home Sales (December 2021)

- Annual Rate  6,100,000. Previous was 6,460,000

- Month over Month  -1.3%. Year over Year -8.3%

At the end of December, the inventory of unsold existing homes fell to an all-time low of 910,000,

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

January 19, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/14/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 8.0%. Previous weeks were 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%,+5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -1.0%, +2.0%,  and +8.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -3.0%. Previous weeks  were  -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, +7.0%, and -3.0%

- Composite Index week/week  2.3%.   Previous weeks were +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, +0.2%, -6.9%, -1.1%, and +4.9

Source:  MBA    Details: https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/january/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x288554

 

Housing Starts and Permits  (December 2021)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,702,000. Previous was 1,678,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,873,000. Previous was 1,717,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. 

SFR Starts were 1,172,000 which was -10.9% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/15/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 14.5%. Previous was 18.4%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

January 18, 2022

Housing Market Index (January 2022)

- Index  83.  Previous was   84

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

January 14, 2022

Retail Sales  (December 2021)

- Retail Sales month/month  -1.9%. Previous was +0.2%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  -2.3%. Previous was +0.1%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  -2.5%   Previous was +-0.1%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 4th 2021 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices  (December 2021)

- Import Prices month/month     -0.2%. Previous was +0.7%

- Import Prices year/year    +10.4%. Previous was +11.7%

- Export Prices month/month   -1.8%. Previous was +0.8%

- Export Prices year/year    +14.7%. Previous was +18.2%

These numbers are below expectation.

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Industrial Production  (November 2021)

- Industrial Production month/month -0.1%.    Previous was +0.7%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month  -0.3% . Previous was  +0.6%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        76.5%. Previous was 76.65%

- Industrial Production year/year +3.7%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf

 

Business Inventories (November 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +1.3%. Previous was +1.3%.

This is a component of 4thQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (January 2022)

- Index 68.8. Previous was 70.6

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

January 13, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/8/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  230,000. Previous was 205,000

- Initial Claims unadjusted, totaled 315,469 in the week ending January 8, an increase of 103,693 (or 32.8 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  210,750. Previous was  204,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 12/25:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 230,919 

Claims for Pandemic UI and Emergency Pandemic UI are no longer reported.

Total receiving any UI decreased by 226,264

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

PPI  (December 2021)

- PPI-FD month/month    0.2%. Previous was 1.0%

- PPI-FD year/year        9.7%. Previous was 9.8%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.5%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        8.3%. Previous was +7.7%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.9%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.9%. Previous was +6.9%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/