February 28, 2022

Goods Trade Deficit (January 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $107.6 billion.  Previous was $100.5 billion

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

 

Retail Inventories (January 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 1.9%. Previous was 4.4%

This is a component of  1stQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (January 2022) - Advance

- Inventories +0.8%.  Previous was +2.3%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

 

February 25, 2022

Durable Goods Orders (January 2022)

- New Orders month/month        +1.6%. Previous was 1.7%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.7%. Previous was 0.9%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.9%. Previous was 0.4%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (January 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.0%. Previous was 0.4%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  2.1%.Previous was -0.8%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.6%    %. Previous was 0.5%    

- PCE Price Index year/year   6.1%. Previous was 5.8%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.5%. Previous was  0.5%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  5.2%. Previous was 4.9%

 

Consumer Sentiment (January 2022)

- Index 62.8. Previous was 61.7

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (December 2021)

- Month over Month -5.7%. Previous was -2.3%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors

February 24, 2022

GDP  (4thQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    7.0%. Previous estimate was 6.9%. Previous Q was 2.3%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized   3.1%. Previous was 2.0%

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-revised-and-gdp-industry-third

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/19/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  232,000. Previous was 249,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 214,873 in the  week ending 10.4  percent from  the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  236,250. Previous was  243,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 2/5:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 29,113

Total receiving any UI decreased by 30,906

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

New Home Sales (January 2022)

- Annual Rate 801,000. Previous was 839,000

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

February 23, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/18/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -10.0% . Previous weeks were -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%,+5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, and +4.0%.

- Refinance Index week/week -16.0%. Previous weeks  were -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, and -7.0%, 

- Composite Index week/week -13.1%.   Previous weeks were -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  and -6.3%.

Source:  MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Details: https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x288963

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/19/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 14.5. Previous was 15.4%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

February 22, 2022

Case-Shiller House Price Index (December 2021)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +1.2%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   1.1%. Previous was 1.0%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        18.6%. Previous was 18.3%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (December 2021)

- month/month +1.2%. Previous was +1.2%

- year/year +17.6%. Previous was +17.6%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index_January-2022.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (February 2022)

 

- Index 110.5. Previous was 113.8.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer 

Spending in the next 6 months.

 

PMI Composite Flash   (January 2022)

- Composite Index 50.8

- Manufacturing Index 55.0   

- Services Index    50.9

Source:  IHS Markit

February 18, 2022

Existing Home Sales (January 2022)

- Annual Rate 6,500,000. Previous was 6,090,000

- Month over Month  +6.7%. Year over Year -2.3%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (January 2022)

- Month over Month -0.3%. Previous was +0.7%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

February 17, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (January 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,638,000. Previous was 1,708,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,899,000. Previous was 1,885,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate 

expanded population and units lost. In addition we need 500,000 more start per year to make up for 15 years of Starts less than 1,500,000.

SFR Starts were 1,116,000 which was -2.4% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 2/12/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  248,000. Previous was 225,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled  238,482 in the  week  ending February 12, an  increase of  7,742 (or  3.4 percent)  from  the previous  week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  243,250. Previous was  253,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 1/29:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 35,244 

Total receiving any UI increased by 36,295

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

February 16, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 2/11/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -1.0%. Previous weeks were -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%,+5.0%, 5.0%,  +2.0%, +3.0%, -2.0%., -5.0%, +4.0%, and +0.2%

- Refinance Index week/week -9.0% . Previous weeks  were -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%, -5.0%,  +7.0%., 4.0%, -2.0%, -7.0%, and -1.0%

- Composite Index week/week -5.4%.   Previous weeks were -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%. 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%, -2.8%., +5.5%, -3.3%, +0.3%,  -6.3%, and +0.2%

Details: https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/february/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x288923

 

Retail Sales  (January 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  +3.8%. Previous was -2.5%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +3.3%. Previous was -2.8%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  +3.8%   Previous was -3.2%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 1stQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices  (January 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     +2.0%. Previous was -0.4%

- Import Prices year/year    +10.8%. Previous was +10.2%

- Export Prices month/month   -1.8%. Previous was +0.8%

- Export Prices year/year    +15.1%. Previous was +14.8%

Source: BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

 

Industrial Production  (January 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month +1.4%.    Previous was -0.1%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month +0.2% . Previous was  -0.1%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        77.6%. Previous was 76.6%

- Industrial Production year/year +4.1%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf

 

Business Inventories (December 2021)

- Inventories month/month  +2.1%. Previous was +1.5%.

This is a component of 4thQ 2021 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index (February 2022)

- Index  82.  Previous was   83

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

February 15, 2022

PPI  (January 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    1.0%. Previous was 0.4%

- PPI-FD year/year        9.7%. Previous was 9.8%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.8%. Previous was 0.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        8.3%. Previous was +8.3%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.9%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    6.9%. Previous was +6.9%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 2/12/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 15.4. Previous was 13.3%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

February 11, 2011

Consumer Sentiment (February 2022)

- Index 61.7. Previous was 67.2

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/