March 31, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/26/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  202,000. Previous was 188,000

- Initial Claims   unadjusted,  unadjusted, totaled 195,460 in the week ending March 26, an increase of 13,121 (or 7.2 percent) from the previous week.  

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  208,7500. Previous was  212,000

Numbers below are for the week ended 3/12:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 81,430  

Total receiving any UI decreased by 81,975

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (February 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.5%. Previous was 0.0%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.2%. Previous was 0.5%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.6%    %. Previous was 0.6%    

- PCE Price Index year/year   6.4%. Previous was 6.4%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.4%. Previous was  0.4%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  5.4%. Previous was 5.2%

 

March 30, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/25/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%,+5.0%, 5.0%,  and  +2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -15.0% . Previous weeks  were -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%,  and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week -6.8%   Previous weeks were -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%,  and -2.8%.

Source:  MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Details: https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/march/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x295413

 

ADP Private Jobs  (March 2022)

- Private Jobs +495,000. Previous was +486,000

Previous was revised from +475,000 to +485,000

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/March/NER/NER-March-2022.aspx

 

GDP  (4thQ 2021)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized    6.9%. Previous estimate was 7.0%. Previous Q was 2.3%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized   2.5%. Previous was 3.1%

Source: BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-corporate-profits-and-gdp-industry-fourth-quarter

Detailed analysis here http://www.consumerindexes.com/

March 29, 2022

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/26/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 12.9. Previous was 12.4%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (January 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    +1.8%. Previous was 1.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   1.4%. Previous was 1.1%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        19.1%. Previous was 18.6%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (January 2022)

- month/month +1.6%. Previous was +1.2%

- year/year +18.2%. Previous was +17.6%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/Pages/US-House-Price-Index-March-2022.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence (March 2022)

- Index 107.2. Previous was 105.7.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

JOLTS  (February 2022)

- Job Openings 11,266,000.  Previous was 11,283,000.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

 

March 28, 2022

Goods Trade Deficit (February 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $106.6 billion.  Previous was $107.6 billion

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

 

Retail Inventories (February 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 1.1%. Previous was 1.9%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (February 2022) - Advance

- Inventories +2.1%.  Previous was +0.8%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

March 25, 2022

- Index 59.4. Previous was 59.7

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (Februrary 2022)

- Month over Month -4.1%. Previous was -5.8%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors

March 24, 2022

Durable Goods Orders (February 2022)

- New Orders month/month        -2.2%. Previous was 1.6%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    -0.6%. Previous was 0.8%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    -0.3%. Previous was 1.3%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/19/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  187,000. Previous was 215,000

- Initial Claims   unadjusted, totaled 1 81,087 in the week ending March 19, a decrease of 22,824 (or 11.2 percent) from the previous week 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  211,750. Previous was  223,250

Numbers below are for the week ended 3/5:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 107,916 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 110,749

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 3/18/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -2.0%. Previous weeks were 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%,+5.0%, 5.0%,  and  +2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -14.0%. Previous weeks  were -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, 15.0%, +0.4%,  and -5.0%

- Composite Index week/week -8.1%.   Previous weeks were -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, -7.2, +1.8%,  and -2.8%.

Source:  MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Details: https://www.mba.org/2022-press-releases/march/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey-x295031

 

New Home Sales (February 2022)

- Annual Rate 772,000. Previous was 801,000

 

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

March 22, 2022

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 3/19/2022)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 12.4%. Previous was 12.6%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

March 18, 2022

Existing Home Sales (February 2022)

- Annual Rate 6,020,000. Previous was 6,500,000

- Month over Month  -7.2%. Year over Year -2.4%

Lack of inventory and higher mortgage rates may be responsible.

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (February 2022)

- Month over Month 0.3%. Previous was -0.5%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

 

 

March 17, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (February 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,769,000. Previous was 1,657,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,859,000. Previous was 1,895,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. In addition we need 500,000 more starts per year to make up for 15 years of Starts less than 1,500,000.

SFR Starts were 1,215,000 which was +13.7% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 3/12/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  214,000. Previous was 229,000

- Initial Claims   unadjusted, totaled 2 12, a decrease of 16,981 (or 02,894 in the week ending March 7.7 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  223,000. Previous was  231,250

Numbers below are for the week ended 2/26:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 59,752 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 59,752

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Industrial Production  (February 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.51.4%.    Previous was +1.4%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month +1.2% . Previous was  0.2%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        77.6%. Previous was 77.3

- Industrial Production year/year +7.5%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www7.federalreserve.gov/releases/g1/current/g17.pdf