April 27, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/22/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -8% . Previous weeks were -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, and +1.0%,

- Refinance Index week/week -9%.  Previous weeks  were  -8%, -5.0%, -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%, and -6.0%

- Composite Index week/week -8.3%.  Previous weeks were  -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, and -4.0%.

Source: MBA https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/04/27/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Goods Trade Deficit (March 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $125.3 billion.  Previous was $106.3 billion

This is a component of 1stQ GDP.

 

Retail Inventories (March 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 2.0%. Previous was 1.5%

This is a component of 1stQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (March 2022) - Advance

- Inventories +2.3%.  Previous was +2.6%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (March 2022)

- Month over Month -1.2%. Previous was -4.0%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot

 

April 26, 2022

Durable Goods Orders (March 2022)

- New Orders month/month        0.8%. Previous was -1.7%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    1.1%. Previous was -0.5%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    1.0%. Previous was -0.3%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (February 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    2.4%. Previous was 1.7%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   2.4%. Previous was 1.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        20.2%. Previous was 18.9%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (February 2022)

- month/month 2.1%. Previous was 1.6%

- year/year +19.4%. Previous was +18.2%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-Up-2pt1-Percent-in-February-Up-19pt4-Percent-From-Last-Year.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence (April 2022)

- Index 107.3. Previous was 107,6.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

New Home Sales  (November 2020)

- Annual Rate 763,000.  Previous was 835,000

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

April 22, 2022

PMI Composite Flash   (April 2022)

- Composite Index 55.1

- Manufacturing Index 59.7   

- Services Index    54.7

Source:  IHS Markit

April 21, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/16/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 184,000. Previous was 186,000

- Initial Claims,   unadjusted, totaled 1 96,897 in the week ending April 16, a decrease of 27,235 (or 24,800 (or -- 12.2 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  177,250. Previous was  172,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 3/26:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 86,886 

Total receiving any UI decreased by 88,031

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (March 2022)

- Month over Month 0.3%. Previous was 0.6%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

April 20, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/15/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -3.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, and -5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -8%.  Previous weeks  were  -5.0%, -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%, -6.0%,  and +9.0%

- Composite Index week/week -5.0.  Previous weeks were  -1.3%, -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, and +2.0%.

Source:  MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Details: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/04/20/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Existing Home Sales (March 2022)

- Annual Rate 5,770,000. Previous was 5,930,000

- Month over Month  -2.7%. Year over Year -4.5%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

April 19, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (March 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,793,000. Previous was 1,788,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,873,000. Previous was 1,865,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate 

expanded population and units lost. In addition we need 500,000 more starts per year to make up for 15 years of Starts less than 1,500,000.

SFR Starts were 1,215,000 which was -4.4% year/year. 5+ unit starts were +28.1% year/year.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

April 18, 2022

Housing Market Index (April 2022)

- Index  77.  Previous was   79.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

April 15, 2022

Industrial Production  (March 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month +0.9%.    Previous was +0.9%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month +0.9% . Previous was  1.2%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        78.3%. Previous was 77.7

- Industrial Production year/year +5.5%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www7.federalreserve.gov/releases/g1/current/g17.pdf 

 

April 14, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 4/9/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 185,000. Previous was 167,000

- Initial Claims    unadjusted, totaled 222,545 in the week ending April 9, an increase of 28,151 (or 14.5 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  172,250. Previous was  170,250

Numbers below are for the week ended 3/19:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 19,735

Total receiving any UI decreased by 19,733

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Retail Sales  (March 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.5%. Previous was +0.3%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +1.1%. Previous was +0.6%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  -0.4%   Previous was +5.2%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 1stQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices (March 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     +2.6%. Previous was +1.6%

- Import Prices year/year    +12.5%. Previous was +11.5%

- Export Prices month/month   +4.5%. Previous was +3.0%

- Export Prices year/year    +18.8%. Previous was +16.5%

 

Business Inventories (January 2022)

- Inventories month/month  +1.5%. Previous was +1.1%.

This is a component of 1stQ 2022 GDP.

Source:   Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (April 2022) Preliminary

- Index 65.7. Previous was 59.4

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

 

April 13, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/8/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, 2.0%, -4.0% -3.3%, +1.0%, -5.0%, and +5.0%

- Refinance Index week/week  -5.0%.  Previous weeks  were -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, -0.1%, -2.0%, +2.2%,-6.0%,  +9.0%, and 15.0%

- Composite Index week/week -1.3%.  Previous weeks were  -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, +1.4%, 2.7%, -0.6%, -4.0%, +2.0%, and -7.2

Source:  MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Details: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/04/06/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

PPI  (March 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    1.4%. Previous was 0.9%

- PPI-FD year/year        11.2%. Previous was 10.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    1.0%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year        9.2%. Previous was +8.4%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.9%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    7.0%. Previous was +6.7%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/