May 31, 2022

Case-Shiller House Price Index (March 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    2.4%. Previous was 2.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   3.1%. Previous was 2.5%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        21.2%. Previous was 20.3%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (March 2022)

- month/month 1.5%. Previous was 1.9%

- year/year +19.0%. Previous was +19.3%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/US-House-Prices-Rise-18pt7-Percent-over-the-Last-Year-Up-4pt6-Percent-from-the-Fourth-Quarter.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence (May 2022)

- Index 106.4. Previous was 108,6.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

Chicago PMI (May 2022)

- Index 60.3. Previous was 57.1

 

May 31, 2022

Case-Shiller House Price Index (March 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    2.4%. Previous was 2.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   3.1%. Previous was 2.5%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        21.2%. Previous was 20.3%

Source: Core Logic

 

FHFA House Price Index  (March 2022)

- month/month 1.5%. Previous was 1.9%

- year/year +19.0%. Previous was +19.3%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/US-House-Prices-Rise-18pt7-Percent-over-the-Last-Year-Up-4pt6-Percent-from-the-Fourth-Quarter.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence (May 2022)

- Index 106.4. Previous was 108,6.

This is the metric from the Conference Board.  This is supposed to indicate Consumer Spending in the next 6 months.

 

Chicago PMI (May 2022)

- Index 60.3. Previous was 57.1

 

May 27, 2022

Personal Income and Outlays (April 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.4%. Previous was 0.5%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.9%. Previous was 1.4%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.2%    %. Previous was 0.9%    

- PCE Price Index year/year   6.3%. Previous was 6.6%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.3%. Previous was  0.3%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  54.9%. Previous was 5.2%

 

Goods Trade Deficit (April 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $105.9 billion.  Previous was $125.9 billion

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP.

 

Retail Inventories (April 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 0.7%. Previous was 3.0%

This is a component of 2ndQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (April 2022) - Advance

- Inventories +2.1%.  Previous was +2.7%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

May 26, 2022

GDP  (1st 2022)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized   -1.5%.  

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    +3.1. Previous was +2.7%

The Atlanta Fed's last estimate for 2ndQ GDP was +1.8%

Source: BEA  Details:  www.bea.gov

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/21/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 210,000. Previous was 218,000

- Initial Claims,   unadjusted,  totaled 1 83,927 in the week ending May 21, a decrease of 14,534 (or (or -- 7.3 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 206,750. Previous was  199,500

Numbers below are for the week ended 5/7

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 49.777

Total receiving any UI decreased by 54,282

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Corporate Profits (1stQ2022)

- After-Tax year/year    15.7 %

- With Inventory & Consumption Adjustments year/year    9.5%

Source:  BEA

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (April 2022)

- Month over Month -3.9%. Previous was -1.6%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot

 

May 25, 2022

May 25, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (5/20/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.2%. Previous weeks were -11.9%, +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, and 8.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -3.9%.  Previous weeks were -9.5%,  2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, -8%, -5.0%, -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, and -3.0%

- Composite Index week/week -1.2% .  Previous weeks were  -11.0% +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, and 2.3%

Source:  MBA, Details: https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/05/25/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Durable Goods Orders (April 2022)

- New Orders month/month        0.4%. Previous was 0.6%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.3%. Previous was 0.8%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    -0.3%. Previous was 1.1%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf

 

 

May 24, 2022

PMI Composite Flash (May 2022)

- Composite Index 53.8

- Manufacturing Index 57.5   

- Services Index    54.9

Source:  IHS Markit

 

New Home Sales (April 2022)

- Annual Rate 591,000. Previous was 709,000

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

May 19, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/14/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 219,000. Previous was 197,000

- Initial Claims, unadjusted, totaled 198,711 in the week ending May 14, an increase of 12,811 (or 6.9 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted 199,500. Previous was 192,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 4/30

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 72,166

Total receiving any UI decreased by 68,885

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Existing Home Sales (April 2022)

- Annual Rate 5,610,000. Previous was 5,750,000

- Month over Month -2.4%. Year over Year -5.9%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

Leading Indicators (April 2022)

- month over month -0.3%, Previous was +0.1%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

May 18, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (5/13/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -11.9%. Previous weeks were +4.8%, 4.1%, -8% , -3.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%., +1.0%, -2.0%, 1.0%, +9.0%, -2.0%, -10.0%, -1.0%, -10.0%, +4.0%, -2.0%, 8.0%, and 2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -9.5-.  Previous weeks  were 2.0%,  0.2%, -9%, -8%, -5.0%, -10.0%., -15.0%, -14.0%, -3.0%, +9.0%, +1.0%, -16.0%, -9.0%, -7.0%,  +18.0%, -13.0%, -3.0%, and -0.1%

- Composite Index week/week -11.0%.  Previous weeks were  +2.0%, 2.5%, -8.3%, -5.0%, -1.3%, -6.3%., -6.8%, -14.0%, -1.2%, 8.5%, -0.7%, -13.1%, -5.4%, -8.1%, +4.0%, -7.1%, 2.3%, and +1.4%.

Source:  MBA, Details:  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/05/18/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Housing Starts and Permits (April 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,724,000. Previous was 1,728,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,819,000. Previous was 1,879,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. In addition we need 400,000 more starts per year to make up for 15 years of Starts less than 1,500,000.

SFR Starts were 1,100,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

 

May 17, 2022

Retail Sales  (April 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  +0.9%. Previous was +1.4%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  +0.6%. Previous was +2.10.6%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  1.0%   Previous was +1.2%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 2ndQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Industrial Production  (April 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month +1.3%.    Previous was +0.9%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month +0.8% . Previous was  0.9%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        79.0%. Previous was 78.2

- Industrial Production year/year +14.1%

Source:  Federal Reserve  Details: https://www7.federalreserve.gov/releases/g1/current/g17.pdf 

 

Business Inventories (March 2022)

- Inventories month/month  +2.0%. Previous was +1.5%.

This is a component of 1stQ 2022 GDP.

Source:   Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

Housing Market Index (May 2022)

- Index  69.  Previous was   77.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.