September 30, 2022

Personal Income and Outlays (August 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.3%. Previous was 0.3%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.4%. Previous was -0.2%

- PCE Price Index month/month   0.3% . Previous was -0.1%    

- PCE Price Index year/year  6.2%. Previous was 6.4%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month  0.6%. Previous was  0.0%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.9%. Previous was 4.7%

Source:  BEA  Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2022-and-annual-update

 

Consumer Sentiment (August 2022)

- Index 51.5. Previous was 50.0

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

September 30, 2022

Personal Income and Outlays (August 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.3%. Previous was 0.3%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.4%. Previous was -0.2%

- PCE Price Index month/month   0.3% . Previous was -0.1%    

- PCE Price Index year/year  6.2%. Previous was 6.4%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month  0.6%. Previous was  0.0%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.9%. Previous was 4.7%

Source:  BEA  Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2022-and-annual-update

 

Consumer Sentiment (August 2022)

- Index 51.5. Previous was 50.0

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu

September 29, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/24/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 19213,000. Previous was 209,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 156,060 in the week ending September 24, a decrease of 12,642 (or 7.5 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  207,000. Previous was  215,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 9/10

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 6,029

Total receiving any increased by 6,855

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

GDP  (2ndQ 2022)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized   -0.6%.  Previous estimate was -0.6%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    +2.0%. Previous was +1.3%

Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (9/23/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -.04% . Previous weeks were +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%, and -11.9%.

- Refinance Index week/week -10.9%. Previous weeks  were +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9%, -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, and -3.9%

- Composite Index week/week -3.7%. Previous weeks were +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  and -6.5%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/09/21/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Goods Trade Deficit (August 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $87.3 billion.  Previous was $90.8 billion

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP.

 

Retail Inventories (August 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 1.4%. Previous was 1.1%

This is a component of 3rdQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (August 2022) - Advance

- Inventories 1.3%.  Previous was 0.8%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (August 2022)

- Month over Month -2.0%. Previous was -0.6%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot

September 27, 2022

Durable Goods Orders (August 2022)

- New Orders month/month  -0.2%. Previous was -0.1%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.2%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    1.3%. Previous was 0.7%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/#durable_goods

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (July 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month  -0.75%. Previous was 1.3%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   -0.8%. Previous was 0.4%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        16.1%. Previous was 16.1%

Source: Core Logic  https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview

 

FHFA House Price Index  (July 2022)

- month/month -0.6%. Previous was 0.1%

- year/year +13.9%. Previous was +16.3%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-HPI-Down-0pt6-Percent-in-July-Up-13pt9-Percent-from-Last-Year.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (September 2022)

- Index 108.0. Previous was 103.6

Source:  Conference Board

 

New Home Sales (August 2022)

- Annual Rate 685,000. Previous was 532,000

Data is seasonally adjusted and annualized.

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

September 22, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 9/17/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 213,000. Previous was 213,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 171,562 in the week ending September 17, an increase of 19,385 (or 12.7 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  216,750. Previous was  222,750

Numbers below are for the week ended 9/3

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 95,940

Total receiving any UI decreased by 96,414

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Leading Indicators (August 2022)

- month over month -0.3%, Previous was -0.5%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

September 21, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (9/16/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week +1.0%. Previous weeks were +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%, and -11.9% and +4.8%.

- Refinance Index week/week +10.4%.  Previous weeks  were -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9%, -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, and +0.2%.

- Composite Index week/week +3.8% . Previous weeks were -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, and -2.3%.

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/09/21/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Existing Home Sales (August 2022)

- Annual Rate 4,800,000. Previous was 4,820,000

- Month over Month -0.4%. Year over Year -19.9%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

September 20, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (August 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,575,000. Previous was 1,404,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,517,000. Previous was 1,685,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. 

SFR Starts were 1,095,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

September 14, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (9/9/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week +0.2$%. Previous weeks were  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, +0.1% , +7.9%, 8.1%, 7.1%, -0.6%, +0.2%., -11.9%, and +4.8%.

- Refinance Index week/week -1.2%.  Previous weeks  were -1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, -7.7%, +1.9%, -3.1%, 3.7%, 5.6%,  -5.4%, -3.9%, +0.2%, and -9.5%.

- Composite Index week/week -4.2%. Previous weeks were -0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, -1.7%, -5.4%, +0.7% , +4.2%, 6.6%,  -6.5%, -2.3%, and -1.2%.

 

Source:  MBA. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/09/14/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

PPI  (August 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    -0.1%. Previous was -0.5%

- PPI-FD year/year        8.7%. Previous was 9.8%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year       8.1%. Previous was 7.6%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.8%. Previous was +5.8%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

 

 

September 13, 2022

CPI (August 2022)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.1%. Previous was 0.0%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   +8.3%. Previous was 8.5%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.6%. Previous was +0.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year 6.3%. Previous was 5.9%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm