December 29, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/24/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 225,000. Previous was 216,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled  271,590 in the week ending December 24, an increase of 23,146 (or 9.3 percent) from the previous week.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  221,000. Previous was  221,250

Numbers below are for the week ended 12/10

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 90,369 

Total receiving any benefits increased by 91,461

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

December 28, 2022

Pending Home Sales Index  (November 2022)

- Month over Month -4.0%. Previous was -4.6%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot

 

December 27, 2022

Goods Trade Deficit (November 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $83.3 billion.  Previous was $98.8 billion

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

 

Retail Inventories (November 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month 0.1%%. Previous was -0.2%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (November 2022) - Advance

- Inventories 1.0%.  Previous was 0.8%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (October 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month  -0.5%. Previous was -1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   -0.8%. Previous was -1.5%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        8.6%. Previous was 10.4%

Source: Core Logic  https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview

 

FHFA House Price Index  (October 2022)

- month/month 0.0%. Previous was 0.1%

- year/year 9.8%. Previous was +11.0%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-House-Price-Index-0pt0-Percent-in-October-Up-9pt8-Percent-from-Last-Year.aspx

 

December 22, 2022

Durable Goods Orders (November 2022)

- New Orders month/month  -2.1%. Previous was 0.7%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.1%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.2%. Previous was 0.3%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/#durable_goods

 

Personal Income and Outlays (November 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.4%. Previous was 0.7%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.1%. Previous was 0.9%

- PCE Price Index month/month   0.1%. Previous was 0.4%    

- PCE Price Index year/year  5.5%. Previous was 6.1%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month  0.2%. Previous was  0.3%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  4.7%. Previous was 6.1%

Source:  BEA  Details: https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/personal-income-and-outlays-november-2022

 

New Home Sales (November 2022)

- Annual Rate 640,000. Previous was 605,000

Data is seasonally adjusted and annualized.

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (December 2022)

- Index 59.7. Previous was 59.1

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

December 21, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (12/16/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week -0.1%. Previous weeks were 4.0%,-3.4, 3.8%, 1.8%, 4.4%,1.3%, -0.8%, 2.3%, -3.7%, -2.1%, -12.6%, -0.4%, +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, and -1.4%

- Refinance Index week/week 6.0%. Previous weeks were 2.8%, 4.7%, -12.9, 1.8%, -1.6%, 3.5%, 0.2%, 0.0%, -6.9%, -1.8%, -17.8%, -10.9%, +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, and -5.4%

- Composite Index week/week 0.9%. Previous weeks were  3.2%, -1.9%, -0.8%, 2.2%, 2.7%, -0.1%, -0.5%, -1.7%, -4.5%, -2.0%, -14.2% , -3.7%, +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, and -1.2%.

Source: MBA.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/12/21/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Consumer Confidence  (December 2022)

- Index 101.4. Previous was 108.3

Source:  Conference Board

 

Existing Home Sales (November  2022)

- Annual Rate 4,090,000. Previous was 4,430,000

- Month over Month -7.7%. Year over Year -5.9%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

December 20, 2022

Housing Starts and Permits (November 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,427,000. Previous was 1,434,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,342,000. Previous was 1,512,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. 

SFR Starts were 781,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

December 19, 2022

Housing Market Index (December 2022)

- Index  31.  Previous was   33.

This is based on a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders.  The survey asks 1) how's business and 2) how do you think the economy in general is doing.

December 15, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/10/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 211,000. Previous was 231,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 248,881 in the week ending December 10, a decrease of 39,095 (or -- 13.6 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  227,250. Previous was  230,250

Numbers below are for the week ended 11/26

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 299,208

Total receiving any benefits increased by 302,1069

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Retail Sales  (November 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  -0.6%. Previous was 1.3%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  -0.2%. Previous was 1.2%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  -0.2%   Previous was 0.8%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 4thQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Industrial Production  (November 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month -0.2%.    Previous was -0.1%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month -0.6% . Previous was  0.3%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        79.7%. Previous was 79.9

- Industrial Production year/year +2.5%

Source:  Federal Reserve  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

 

Business Inventories (October 2022)

- Inventories month/month  0.3%. Previous was 0.2%.

This is a component of 4thQ 2022 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

December 14, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (12/9/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 4.0%. Previous weeks were -3.4, 3.8%, 1.8%, 4.4%,1.3%, -0.8%, 2.3%, -3.7%, -2.1%, -12.6%, -0.4%, +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, and 1.0%

- Refinance Index week/week 2.8%. Previous weeks were 4.7%, -12.9, 1.8%, -1.6%, 3.5%, 0.2%, 0.0%, -6.9%, -1.8%, -17.8%, -10.9%, +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, and 3.5%

- Composite Index week/week 3.2%. Previous weeks were  -1.9%, -0.8%, 2.2%, 2.7%, -0.1%, -0.5%, -1.7%, -4.5%, -2.0%, -14.2% , -3.7%, +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, and -2.3%

Source: MBA.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/12/14/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Import and Export Prices (November 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     -0.6%. Previous was -0.4%

- Import Prices year/year    2.7%. Previous was +4.1%

- Export Prices month/month   -0.3%. Previous was -0.4%

- Export Prices year/year    6.3%. Previous was 6.9%

 

December 10, 2022

CPI (November 2022)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.1%. Previous was +0.4%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   +7.1%. Previous was 7.7%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.2%. Previous was +0.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year 6.0%. Previous was 6.3%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm