Rate Watch #951 - September BLS

October 3, 2014

by Dick Lepre  

[email protected]
www.loanmine.com

 

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

 

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

 

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

 

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +248,000 (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +180,000 and +243,000. Those had been +142,000 and +212,000. That is a gain of 69,000 for those 2 months from the previous report making a net gain of +317,000 in jobs since the last report.

 

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 217,000 to 248,446,000 (H).

- 97,000 fewer people were in the labor force last month. (H)

With a labor participation rate of 62.7% 136,000 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 181,600 more jobs added than that. (H) The Employment/Population ratio was flat at 59.0%.

The Labor Participation Rate fell from 62.8% to 62.7%. It was 63.2% a year ago. It peaked at 67.3% in April 2000.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,278,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 62.7% we require 1,428,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We have 2,230,000 (H) more folks working. Real (population adjusted jobs growth in the past 12 months is 802,000.

- Real (population adjusted) job growth last month was 181,600. This accounts for the changes for the 2 previous months.
- the Unemployment Rate rose fell from 6.1% to 5.9%. It was 7.2% a year ago.(B)
- Average hourly earnings was $24.53 down from $24.54 the previous month. (E)
- Average work week was 34.6 hours up from 34.5 hours the previous month. (E)
- Private jobs were +236,000. Government jobs were +12,000. (E)

-Good producing jobs were +29,000. The two previous months were revised to +14,000 and +63,000 (E)

 

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) fell from 62.8% to 62.7%. It was 63.2% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 62.7% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP. The Labor Participation Rate is the lowest it has been since January 1978. Until 1970 the Participation Rate was almost always under 60.0. It started to increase as more women joined the labor force and as boomers started working. My concern in that the enormous obligations of Medicare and Social Security will be difficult to meet with a declining Labor Participation Rate.

 

Last month BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 4,530,000 down 306,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 1,273,000 year-on-year. (H) This is a bright part of the report. Fewer people are losing their jobs.

- Job leavers was 829,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This down 31,000 from previous month and down 155,000 year-on-year. (H)

-Reentrants was 2,809,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was -36,000 from the previous month and -346,000 year-on-year.(H)

-New entrants were 1,005,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was +39,000 from previous month and -106,000 year-on-year.

 

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 174,000 fewer people working part-time.

 

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 248,000 more people are working.

- 97,000 fewer people are in the civilian labor force.

The unemployment rate was down 0.2%

The Labor Participation Rate is the lowest since January 1978. There are 2 stories here: 1) we are adding jobs at a modest clip and 2) we are not adding jobs at a pace sufficient to generate tax revenue to meet the obligations of Medicare and Social Security. This is a better report than last month but a very ill omen for our ability to fund those "entitlements."

For me the worst part of the reaction is the media's unwillingness to understand or explain the nuances. Focusing merely on two numbers 1) the change in jobs and 2) the Unemployment Rate merely keeps the public ill-informed.

In any case, this in my view is a better report than we have been seeing recently. Fewer people are losing their jobs as in revealed in the weekly New Claims for Unemployment numbers. Wages are stagnant but that is hardly news. The headline unemployment rate even though less important that the Participation Rate will help equities for the day because this is what small investors are trained to Pavlov react to.

The Federal Reserve can feel good about the fact that the Unemployment Rate is below 6.0% even though they know that the labor Participation Rate is what is important. The Fed's tapering will be justified. The big question about Monetary Base is how this gigantic increase will be dealt with. Increased Monetary Base threatens inflation while cutting back Monetary Base threatens recession.

 

---

Dick Lepre

[email protected]
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
3240 Stone Valley Rd. West, Alamo, CA 94507
My license: CA BRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
RPM Mortgage, Inc - California Bureau of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

 

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

 

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +142,000 (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +212,000 and +267,000. Those had been +209,000 and +298,000. That is a loss of 28,000 for those 2 months from the previous report making a net gain of +114,000 in jobs since the last report.

 

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 206,000 to 248,229,000 (H).

- 64,000 fewer people were in the labor force last month. (H)

With a labor participation rate of 62.8% 129,400 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 12,600 more jobs added than that. (H) The Employment/Population ratio was flat at 59.0%.

The Labor Participation Rate fell from 62.9% to 62.8%. It was 63.2% a year ago. It peaked at 67.3% in April 2000.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,270,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 62.8% we require 1,426,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We have 2,188,000 (H) more folks working. Real (population adjusted jobs growth in the past 12 months is 762,000.

 

- Real (population adjusted) job growth last month was 114,500. This accounts for the changes for the 2 previous months. - the Unemployment Rate rose fell from 6.2% to 6.1%. It was 7.2% a year ago.(B) - Average hourly earnings was $24.53 up from $24.45 the previous month. (E) - Average work week was 34.5 hours the same as the previous month. (E) - Private jobs were +134,000. Government jobs were +8,000. (E)

-Good producing jobs were +22,000. The two previous months were revised to +67,000 and +34,000 (E)

 

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) fell from 62.9% to 62.8%. It was 63.2% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 62.8% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP. The Labor Participation Rate is the lowest it has been since January 1978. Until 1970 the Participation Rate was almost always under 60.0. It started to increase as more women joined the labor force and as boomers started working. My concern in that the enormous obligations of Medicare and Social Security will be difficult to meet with a declining Labor Participation Rate.

 

Last month BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 4,836,000 down 23,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 1,051,000 year-on-year. (H) This is a bright part of the report. Fewer people are losing their jobs.

- Job leavers was 860,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This down 2,000 from previous month and down 30,000 year-on-year. (H)

-Reentrants was 2,845,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was -3,000 from the previous month and -271,000 year-on-year.(H)

-New entrants were 1,066,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was -21,000 from previous month and -229,000 year-on-year.

 

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 234,000 fewer people working part-time.

 

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

 

- 142,000 more people are working.

- 64,000 fewer people are in the civilian labor force.

The unemployment rate was down 0.1%

The Labor Participation Rate is the lowest since January 1978. There are 2 stories here: 1) we are adding jobs at a modest clip and 2) we are not adding jobs at a pace sufficient to generate tax revenue to meet the obligations of Medicare and Social Security. This is a better report than last month but a very ill omen for our ability to fund those "entitlements."

For me the worst part of the reaction is the media's unwillingness to understand or explain the nuances. Focusing merely on two numbers 1) the change in jobs and 2) the Unemployment Rate merely keeps the public ill-informed.

 

Another Mediocre Jobs Report

Rate Watch #934 - Another Mediocre BLS Jobs Report

June 6, 2014

by Dick Lepre  

 

Analysis

Yesterday's actions by ECB were dramatic and daring efforts to get banks to lend. It will be most interesting to see how the Fed reacts to this.

 Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

 

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government  agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

 

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

 

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +217,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +282,000 and +203,000. Those had been +288,000 and +203,000. That is a loss of 6,000 for those 2 months from the previous report making the net gain of +217,000 in jobs since the last report.

 

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 183,000 to 247,622,000 (H).

- 192,000 more people were in the labor force last month. (H)

With a labor participation rate of 62.8% 114,900 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 102,100 more jobs added than that. (H) The Employment/Population ratio was flat at to 58.9%.

The Labor Participation Rate was flat at 62.8%. It was 63.4% a year ago. It peaked at 67.3% in April 2000.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,259,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 62.8% we require 1,441,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We have 1,895,000 (H) more folks working. Real (population adjusted jobs growth in the past 12 months is 458,000.

- Real (population adjusted) job growth last month was 102,100. This accounts for the changes for the 2 previous months.
- the Unemployment Rate was flat at 6.3%. (B)
- Average hourly earnings was $24.38 up from $24.33 the previous month. (E)
- Average work week was 34.5 hours the same as the previous month. (E)
- Private jobs were +216,000. Government jobs were +1,000. (E)

-Good producing jobs were +18,000. The two previous months were revised to +46,000 and +21,000 (E)

 

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) was flat at 62.8%. It was 63.4% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 62.8% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP. The Labor Participation Rate is the lowest it has been since January 1978. Until 1970 the Participation Rate was almost always under 60.0. It started to increase as more women joined the labor force and as boomers started working. My concern in that the enormous obligations of Medicare and Social Security will be difficult to meet with a declining Labor Participation Rate.

 

Last month BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 5,018,000 down 218,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 1,076,000 year-on-year. (H) This is a bright part of the report.

- Job leavers was 875,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This up 91,000 from previous month and down69,000 year-on-year. (H)

-Reentrants was 2,857,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was +237,000 from the previous month and -469,000 year-on-year.(H)

-New entrants were 1,062,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was +19,000 from previous month and -195,000 year-on-year.

 

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 196,000 fewer people working part-time. This is a positive for the jobs market.

 

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 217,000 more people are working.

- 195,000 more people are in the civilian labor force.

The unemployment rate was flat.

Jobs growth trend was down, the Unemployment Rate was flat and the Labor Participation Rate is the lowest since January 1978. There are 2 stories here: 1) we are adding jobs at a modest clip and 2) we are not adding jobs at a pace sufficient to generate tax revenue to meet the obligations of Medicare and Social Security. This is a better report than last month but a very ill omen for our ability to fund those "entitlements."

 

 

 

---

Dick Lepre

[email protected]
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
3240 Stone Valley Rd. West, Alamo, CA 94507
My license: CA BRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
RPM Mortgage, Inc - California Bureau of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

 

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

 

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +192,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +197,000 and +144,000. Those had been +170,000 and +129,000. That is a gain of 42,000 for those 2 months from the previous report making the net gain of +234,000 in jobs since the last report.

 

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 173,000 to 247,258,000 (H).

- 503,000 more people were in the labor force last month. (H)

With a labor participation rate of 63.2% 109,300 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 124,700 more jobs added than that. (H) The Employment/Population rose to 58.9% from 58.8%.

The Labor Participation Rate was flat at 63.2% an increase from the previous 63.1%. It was 63.2% a year ago.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,263,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 63.0% we require 1,426,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We have 2,249,000 (H) more folks working.

 

- Real (population adjusted) job growth last month was 124,700. This accounts for the changes for the 2 previous months. - the Unemployment Rate was 6.7% same as the previous month (B) - Average hourly earnings was $24.30 down from $24.31 the previous month(E) - Average work week was 34.5 hours up from 34.3 hours the previous month(E) - Private jobs were +192,000. Government jobs were +0 (E)

-Good producing jobs were +25,000. The two previous months were revised to +40,000 and +65,000 (E)

 

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) rose to 63.2%. It was 63.1% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 63.2% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.

 

Last month BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 5,589,000 up 41,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 832,000 year-on-year. (H)

- Job leavers was 815,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This down 8 ,000 from previous month and down 163,000 year-on-year. (H)

-Reentrants was 3,037,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was +40,000 from the previous month and -145,000 year-on-year.(H)

-New entrants were 1,169,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was +60,000 from previous month and -135,000 year-on-year.

 

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 225,000 more people working part-time. This is a a step back from last month's improvement. This also exceeds the gain in jobs.

 

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 234,000 more people are working.

- 503,000 more people are in the civilian labor force.

The unemployment rate was flat.

 

This report indicates modest growth in the jobs market for March. The fact that the Labor Participation Rate held is a positive. The fact that the number of people working part time exceeded the gain in employment is a negative. The fact that real wages are decreasing is distressing.

 

Overall I would rate this report as neutral. The reality is that we need a larger percent of the population working if we are going to generate revenue to run the government and have better lives. Real wages have been falling and the fact remain that we have a population insufficiently skilled for the jobs which are out there and will be out there in the future.

 

Rate Watch #908 November BLS - Still Mediocre

December 9, 2013

by Dick Lepre  

[email protected]
www.loanmine.com

 

Last week saw two important releases: GDP and BLS. The BLS Employment report is discussed in detail below.

GDP was mixed. The headline looked good at +3.6% but was fattened by the large increase in inventories. Gross Private Domestic Investment was +16.7%. One bit of data which should always be regarded is Final Sales of Domestic Products which was +1.9%. That fat gain in Inventories will dissipate next quarter. Consumer spending which drives the economy.

This month's BLS Employment Situation Report is analyzed in detail below.

You can now follow my daily posts on the economy on Twitter @dicklepre

 Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +203,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +175,000 (October) and +238,000 (September). Those had been +200,000 (October) and +163,000 (September.) That is a gain (for October and September) of +9,000 from the previous report making the net gain of +212,000 in jobs since the last report.

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 186,000 in November to 246,567,000 (H).

455,000 entered people the labor force in November. This restores some sanity to the data which indicated that 720,000 people had left the labor force in October (H).

With a labor participation rate of 63.0% 117,200 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 94,888 more jobs added than that including the changes from October and September. (H) The Employment/Population rose from 58.3% to 58.6%.

The Labor Participation Rate rose to 63.0% from 62.8%. It was 63.6% a year ago.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,393,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 63.0% we require 1,508,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We had 1,109,000 (H) more folks working.

- Real (population adjusted) job gain in November was 130,300. This accounts for the changes for October and September.
- the Unemployment Rate was 7.023% down from 7.280% in October 2013(B).
- Average hourly earnings was $24.15 up from $24.11 in October 2013 (E)
- Average work week was 34.5 hours up from 34.4 hours October 2013 (E)
- Private jobs were +196,000. Government jobs were +7,000 (E)

-Good producing jobs were +44,000. The two previous months were revised to +31,000 and +29,000 (E)

-The size of the civilian labor force fell rose 154,839,000 to 155,294,000 an increase of 455,000. (H) This number made up some of the decrease of 720,000 in the previous report.

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) rose to 63.0.%. It was 63.6% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 63.0% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.

 

According to the 4 week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims from 12/5, 1,289,000 people lost their jobs in the prior 4 weeks. That normalizes to 1,396,000 lost jobs in a calendar month (there are about 13 4-week periods in a 12 month year.)

In November 2013 BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 5,804,000 down 449,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 625,000 from November 2012. (H)

- Job leavers was 893,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This up 32,000 from previous month and down 33,000 from November 2012. (H)

-Reentrants was 3,073,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was -44,000 from the previous month and -252,000 from November 2012.(H)

-New entrants were 1,165,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was -58,000 from previous month and -161,000 from November 2012.

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 178,000 fewer people working part-time.

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 212,000 more people are working.

- 455,000 more people are in the civilian labor force.

The unemployment rate decreased 0.257%. We are -399,000 real (population adjusted) jobs for the past 12 months..

45,800 of the new jobs were in retail.

This report indicates modest improvement for jobs for November. Over the last year jobs have not been increasing at a pace fast enough to keep pace with population growth. This report by no means indicates that the economy is generating jobs at a healthy rate. We are not even, for the past year, keeping pace with population growth. The Unemployment Rate (the number which the press insists on reporting as being more important than all else) is down not so much because there are more people working as it is because more people have left the labor force. In the past 12 months the civilian, adult, non-institutional population has increased by 2,400,000 and the number of people work has decreased by 25,000.

It is, for the most part, the people who are working which keep the economy going and pay taxes to keep the government going. Having a continually smaller percent of the population working is not good news.

 

 

 

 

 

---

Dick Lepre

[email protected]
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
1160 Battery Street, San Francisco, CA 94111
My license: CA BRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
RPM Mortgage, Inc - California Bureau of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Very Confusing BLS Employment Situation Report

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +204,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +163,000 (September) and +238,000 (August). Those had been +148,000 (September) and +193,000 (August.) That is a gain (for August and September) of +60,000 from the previous report making the net gain of +264,000 in jobs since the last report.

 

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 213,000 in October to 246,381,000 (H).

A very sizable number of people (720,000) left the labor force in October. (H) I am noting here that this makes no sense to me.

With a labor participation rate of 62.8% 133,700 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 130,300 more jobs added than that including the changes from August and September. (H) The Employment/Population fell from 58.6% to 58.3%.

The Labor Participation Rate fell sharply to 62.8% from 63.2%. It was 63.8% a year ago.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,398,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 63.2% we require 1,506,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We had 240,000 (H) more folks working. I do not believe that this data indicates anything other that the fact that the Establishment Survey and the Household Survey are simply inconsistent. If the data were accurate then the real (population adjusted) job loss in the last 12 months would be 1,266,000.

- Real (population adjusted) job gain in October was 130,300. This accounts for the changes for August and September. - the Unemployment Rate was 7.279% up from 7.235% in September 2013(B). - Average hourly earnings was $24.10 up from $24.08 in September 2013 (E) - Average work week was 34.4 hours down from 34.5 hours September 2013 (E) - Private jobs were +212,000. Government jobs were -8,000 (E)

-Good producing jobs were +35,000. The two previous months were revised to +27,000 and +20,000 (E)

-The size of the civilian labor force fell from 155,559,000 to 154,839,000 a decrease of 720,000. (H) This number is so "off the chart" that it makes any analysis of the employment situation difficult.

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) fell significantly to 62.8.%. It was 63.8% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 62.8% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.

 

According to the 4 week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims from 11/7, 1,393,000 people lost their jobs in the prior 4 weeks. That normalizes to 1,509,000 lost jobs in a calendar month (there are about 13 4-week periods in a 12 month year.) This is up from the previous month's 1,321,700 jobs lost/month. The comparative data should not be deemed reliable due to the reporting failures noted during September and October.

In October 2013 BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 6,253,000 up 409,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 283,000 from October 2012. (H)

- Job leavers was 861,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This down 128,000 from previous month and down 148,000 from October 2012. (H)

-Reentrants was 3,117,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was -128,000 from the previous month and -202,000 from October 2012.(H)

-New entrants were 1,223,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was +1,000 from previous month and -79,000 from October 2012.

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 124,000 more people working part-time. We may be returning again to the "most of the increase in jobs is part time" headache.

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 264,000 more people are working.

- 720,000 fewer people are in the civilian labor force. This is the head scratcher.

The unemployment rate increased 0.044%. We are -1,266,000 real (population adjusted) jobs for the past 12 months. Again, I don't believe this is accurate but more likely reflects inaccurate measurement in the household survey of the number of people employed.

44,400 of the new jobs were in retail. 124,000 were temporary jobs. More that half of the gain in jobs is comprised of temporary jobs.

For me this is a completely confusing report. The headline looks good but the fact that 60% of the headline is in temporary jobs and that 720,000 people left the labor force are of concern. The Household Survey says that 735,000 fewer people are employed. The establishment survey says that 204,000 more people have jobs. The fact that the majority of the gain in jobs in the Establishment survey is in temporary jobs is disconcerting.

 

Rate Watch #902 Jobs Report - Late and Lousy.

October 25, 2013

by Dick Lepre  

[email protected]
www.loanmine.com

 

 

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +148,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +193,000 (August) and +89,000 (July). Those had been +169,000 (August) and +104,000 (July.) That is a loss (for July and August) of +9,000 from the previous report making the net gain of +147,000 in jobs since the last report.

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 209,000 in September to 246,168,000 (H). With a labor participation rate of 63.2% 132,000 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 15,000 fewer jobs added than that including the changes from July and August. (H) The Employment/Population remained at 58.6%.

The Labor Participation Rate was steady at 63.2%. It was 63.6% a year ago.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,396,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 63.2% we require 1,514,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We had 1,329,000 (H) more folks working. The decrease in real (population adjusted) jobs in the past year is 185,000.

- Real (population adjusted) job loss in September was -15,000. This accounts for the changes for July and August.
- the Unemployment Rate was 7.235% down from 7.278% in August 2013(B).
- Average hourly earnings was $24.09 up from $24.06 in August 2013 (E)
- Average work week was 34.5 hours unchanged from 34.5 hours August 2013 (E)
- Private jobs were +126,000. Government jobs were +22,000 (E)

-Good producing jobs were +26,000. The two previous months were revised to +18,000 and -12,000 (E)

-The size of the civilian labor force rose from 155,486,000 to 155,559,000 an increase 73,000. (H)

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) was flat at 63.2.%. It was 63.6% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 63.2% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.

 

According to the 4 week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims from 10/3, 1,220,000 people lost their jobs in the prior 4 weeks. That normalizes to 1,321,700 lost jobs in a calendar month (there are about 13 4-week periods in a 12 month year.) This is down from the previous month's 1,423,500 jobs lost/month.

In September 2013 BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 5,844,000 down 126,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 645,000 from September 2012. (H)

- Job leavers was 989,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This up 96,000 from previous month and up 27,000 from September 2012. (H)

-Reentrants was 3,181,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was +52,000 from the previous month and -132,000 from September 2012.(H)

-New entrants were 1,222,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was -77,000 from previous month and -132,000 from September 2012.

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 15,000 more people working part-time. This is a negative from the previous month when there was a drop of more than 300,000 in part-time jobs. We may be returning again to the "most of the increase in jobs is part time" headache.

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 147,000 more people are working.

- 73,000 more people are in the civilian labor force

The unemployment rate decreased 0.053%. We are -185,000 real (population adjusted) jobs for the past 12 months.

This is another disappointing report.

20,800 of the new jobs were in retail. 20,200 were temporary jobs. The unemployment rate for people with less than a high school diploma dropped 1.0% to 10.3%. Manufacturing jobs were +2,000. This is a profile of jobs gain at the bottom end.

There has been a significant change in the jobs market. Many jobs including manufacturing jobs require technical skills and a college degree. The very large increases in the cost of college education are making education less affordable as it becomes more necessary. The people graduating from college do not have the right skills for the tech-oriented jobs which are out there. We are producing (to oversimplify) too few engineers. The jobs being added are low paying jobs. Some of the problem is with our education system. It has gotten much more expensive while the value (in terms of ability to get a decent job) has decreased.

 

 

---

Dick Lepre

[email protected]
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
1160 Battery Street, San Francisco, CA 94111
CA BRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
California Bureau of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Another Weak Jobs Report

Rate Watch #895 Another Very Weak BLS Jobs Report

September 6, 2013

by Dick Lepre  

[email protected]
www.loanmine.com

 

 Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month.

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +169,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +104,000 (June) and +172,000 (May). Those had been +162,000 (July) and +188,000 (June.) That is a loss (for July and June) of -74,000 from the previous report making the net gain of 95,000 in jobs since the last report.

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 203,000 in August to 245,959,000 (H). With a labor participation rate of 63.2% 203,000 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 108,000 fewer jobs added than that including the changes from April and March. (H) The Employment/Population ratio fell to 58.6%.

The Labor Participation Rate fell from 63.4% to 63.2%. It was 63.5% a year ago.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,393,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 63.2% we require 1,512,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We had 2,006,000 (H) more folks working. The increase in real (population adjusted) jobs in the past year is 387,000.

- Real (population adjusted) job growth in August was -108,000. This accounts for the changes for June and July.

- the Unemployment Rate was 7.278% down from 7.390% in July 2013(B).
- Average hourly earnings was $24.05 up from $24.00 in July 2013 (E)
- Average work week was 34.5 hours up from 34.4 hours July 2013 (E)
- Private jobs were +152,000. Government jobs were +17,000 (E)

-Good producing jobs were +18,000. The two previous months were revised to +6,000 and -14,000 (E)

-The size of the civilian labor force fell from 155,798,000 to 155,486,000 a decrease 312,000. (H) This drop in the Labor Force contributed to the fall in the Unemployment Rate.

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) was 63.2.% down from 63.4%. It was 63.7% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 63.2% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.

 

According to the 4 week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims, 1,314,000 people lost their jobs in the last 4 weeks. That normalizes to 1,423,500 lost jobs in a calendar month (there are about 13 4-week periods in a 12 month year.) This is down from the previous month's 1,423,500 jobs lost/month.

In August 2013 BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 5,970,000 up 49,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 965,000 from August 2012. (H)

- Job leavers was 893,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This down 86,000 from previous month and down 63,000 from August 2012. (H)

-Reentrants was 3,129,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was -129,000 from the previous month and -187,000 from August 2012.(H)

-New entrants were 1,299,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was +31,000 from previous month and -45,000 from August 2012.

One line in the BLS Report is termed "people employed part-time for economic reasons." These are people who want to work full time but their employer, for whatever reason, decide to employ them only part-time. In this month's report there were 334,000 fewer people working part-time. This may be the most positive part of the report. Transition from part-time to full-time is a positive for the economy

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 169,000 more people are working.

- 312,000 fewer people are in the civilian labor force

The unemployment rate decreased 0.112%. We are +387,000 real (population adjusted) jobs for the past 12 months. This is not what a recovery looks like. Cheering that the Unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in 5 years only because folks have given up looking for jobs and are technically no longer unemployed is just plain dumb.

There has been a significant change in the jobs market. Many jobs including manufacturing jobs require technical skills and a college degree. The very large increases in the cost of college education are making education less affordable as it becomes more necessary. The people graduating from college do not have the right skills for the tech-oriented jobs which are out there. We are producing (to oversimplify) too few engineers. The jobs being added are low paying jobs. Some of the problem is with our education system. It has gotten much more expensive while the value (in terms of ability to get a decent job) has decreased.

 

 

---

Dick Lepre

[email protected]
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
1160 Battery Street, San Francisco, CA 94111
CA BRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
California Bureau of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Rate Watch #886 BLS Better but still not Great.

Rate Watch #886 BLS Better but still not Great.

July 5, 2013

by Dick Lepre  

[email protected]
www.loanmine.com

 

Analysis

This month's BLS Employment Situation Report is analyzed in detail below. Initial market reactions were that this was positive for the economy. This report is better only by comparison. In rating economic news, mediocre is the new good.

 

You can now follow my daily posts on the economy on Twitter @dicklepre

 Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which included the 12th of the month.

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +195,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +195,000 (May) and +199,000 (April). Those had been +175,000 (May) and +165,000. That is a gain (for May and April) of 54,000 from the previous report making the net gain in jobs since the last report of 249,000.

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 177,000 in June to 245,552,000 (H). With a labor participation rate of 63.5% 112,400 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 136,600 more jobs added than that including the changes from April and March. (H) The Employment/Population ratio was up 58.6% to 58.7%.


Note that both the Labor Participation Rate and the Employment/Population Ratios were up last month. This is a healthy sign but will not likely continue. The decreased growth rate in civilian noninstitutional adult population is partly responsible for the ratios going up. This is a function of the varying accuracy of the Household Survey.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,297,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 63.5% we require 1,459,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We had 1,610,000 (H) more folks working. The increase in real (population adjusted) jobs in the past year is 151,000.

- Real (population adjusted) job growth in May was 136,600. This accounts for the changes for April and May.

- the Unemployment Rate was 7.557% barely up from 7.555% in May 2013(B).
- Average hourly earnings was $24.01 up from $23.91 in May 2013 (E)
- Average work week was 34.5 hours the same as 34.5 hours April 2013 (E)
- Private jobs were +202,000. Government jobs were -7,000 (E)

-Good producing jobs were +8,000. The two previous months were revised to -17,000 and unchanged (E)

-The size of the civilian labor force rose from 155,658,000 to155,835,000 an increase 177,000 of a good bit smaller that the previous increase os 420,000. (H)

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) was 63.5.% up from 63.4%. This marks 2 consecutive months of increase. It was 63.8% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 63.5% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.

 

According to the 4 week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims, 1,382,000 people lost their jobs in the last 4 weeks. That normalizes to 1,497,000 lost jobs in a calendar month (there are about 13 4-week periods in a 12 month year.) This is down from the previous month's 1,527,500 jobs lost/month.

In June 2013 BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 6,119,000 down 28,000 from previous month's Job Losers and down 1.002,000 from June 2012. (H)

- Job leavers was 1,030,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This up 86,000 from previous month and up 94,000 from June 2012. (H)

-Reentrants was 3,291,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was -42,000 from the previous month and +38,000 from June 2012.(H)

-New entrants were 1,259,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was -9,000 from previous month and -59,000 from June 2012.

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 160,000 more people are working

- 177,000 more people are in the civilian labor force

June's BLB Report was good by comparison with the weak or mediocre report of the recent months but it is by no means a report indicating that the jobs market has moved into a higher gear.

The unemployment rate increased 0.002%. We are +151,000 real (population adjusted) jobs for the past 12 months. This is not what a recovery looks like. The worst part of this month's report is that the number of people working part time was up 432,000 meaning that the number of people with full time jobs actually fell. 

The economy is failing to produce jobs for people entering the labor force for the first time. We still have underlying serious issues with the jobs market. These issues are structural not cyclical.


The U.S. economy is no longer producing jobs for folks who do not have a college degree or recognized trade skills. Jobs performed by those without education or skills are either being automated or offshored. The very large increases in the cost of college education are making education less affordable as it becomes more necessary.

   

---

Dick Lepre

[email protected]
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
1400 Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94109
CA DRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
California Department of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Rate Watch #882 BLS Barely Mediocre

Rate Watch #882 BLS Barely Mediocre.

June 7, 2013

by Dick Lepre  

[email protected]
www.loanmine.com

 

Fundamentals

Fundamentals have been modest at best. Most significant this week were a mediocre BLS report and the change in the language used in the Fed Beige Book. It went from describing growth previously as "moderate pace" to "modest to moderate pace." My take is this: the loose monetary policy of the Fed simply has not achieved the growth wanted. The Fed cannot simply say, "You know we have tried everything and nothing is really working."

The story remains the same: extremely large Federal government deficits, extremely accommodative monetary policy and near zero real growth in jobs.  

You can now follow my daily posts on the economy on Twitter @dicklepre

Inside the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is my monthly look inside the BLS Employment Situation Report. There are two BLS Surveys: the Establishment and the Household. Establishment surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites. It is taken each month during the week which includes the 12th of the month. Household is a survey of 60,000 households taken each month during the week which included the 12th of the month.

Each item below is suffixed with (H) if it is from the Household Survey, (E) if it is from the Establishment Survey, and (B) if it is from both.

- Nominal Nonfarm jobs was +175,000. (E). The two previous months' gains were revised to +149,000 (April) and +142,000 (March). Those had been +165,000 (March) and +138,000. That is a loss (for April and March) of 12,000 from the previous report making the net gain in jobs since the last report of 163,000.

- the size of the civilian noninstitutional adult population increased by 188,000 in May to 245,363,000 (H). With a labor participation rate of 63.4% 119,000 more jobs were necessary to keep pace with population growth. We had 44,000 more jobs added than that including the changes from April and March. (H) The Employment/Population ratio was steady at 58.6%.

The civilian noninstitutional population is 2,297,000 (H) more than 12 months ago. With a labor participation rate of 63.4% we require 1,520,000 more jobs in the past 12 months to keep pace with population growth. We had 1,596,000 (H) more folks working. The increase in real (population adjusted) jobs in the past year is 76,000.

- Real (population adjusted) job growth in May was 44,000. This accounts for the changes for March and April.
- the Unemployment Rate was 7.578% up from 7.510% in April 2013(B).
- Average hourly earnings was $23.89 up from $23.88 in April 2013 (E)
- Average work week was 34.5 hours the same as 34.5 hours April 2013 (E)
- Private jobs were +178,000. Government jobs were -3,000 (E)

-Good producing jobs were -1,000. The two previous months were revised to -15,000 and +14,000. (E)

-The size of the civilian labor force rose from 155,238,000 to 155,658,000 an increase of 420,000. (H)

-The labor participation rate (percent of adult noninstitutionalized population who are part of the labor force) was 63.4.% up from 63.3%. It was 63.8% a year ago. (H) This, not the unemployment rate, is the number which should get everyone's attention. It is this 63.4% of the adult noninstitutionalized population who get pay checks and contribute to GDP.

 

According to the 4 week moving average of Initial Jobless Claims, 1,410,000 people lost their jobs in the last 4 weeks. That normalizes to 1,527,500 lost jobs in a calendar month (there are about 13 4-week periods in a 12 month year.) This is up from the previous month's 1,483,000 jobs lost/month.

In May 2013 BLS measured 4 sets of people entering or leaving the jobs market:

- Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs was 6,147,000 down 263,000 from April's Job Losers and down 741,000 from April 2012. (H)

- Job leavers was 944,000. This includes anyone who retired or voluntarily left working. This up 80,000 from previous month and up 42,000 from April 2012. (H)

-Reentrants was 3,333,000. Reentrants are previously employed people who were looking for a job and found one. This was +182,000 from the previous month and -117,000 from April 2012.(H)

-New entrants were 1,268,000. These are people who never worked before and who are entering the labor force for the first time. This was ---12,000 from previous month and -79,000 from April 2012.

The presentation of the total change in jobs is like looking at the final score of a game. The details tell the story:

- 163,000 more people are working

- 420,000 more people are in the civilian labor force

The unemployment rate increased 0.068%. We are +76,000 real (population adjusted) jobs for the past 12 months. This is not what a recovery looks like.

The economy is failing to produce jobs for people entering the labor force for the first time. We still have underlying serious issues with the j
obs market. These issues are structural not cyclical.

The U.S. economy is no longer producing jobs for folks who do not have a college degree or recognized trade skills. Jobs performed by those without education or skills are either being automated or offshored. The very large increases in the cost of college education are making education less affordable as it becomes more necessary.

 

 

---

Dick Lepre

[email protected]
Web site: www.loanmine.com
Blog: economy.typepad.com
Phone: (415) 244-9383 | Fax: (866) 488-2051
1400 Van Ness Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94109
CA DRE # 01143973 | NMLS # 302379
California Department of Real Estate - Real Estate Broker License #01818035, NMLS #9472. Equal Housing Opportunity.