MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/8/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week +8.0%.  Previous weeks were -0.8% -5.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, 9.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, 3.0%, -1.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and -2.0%

- Refinance Index week/week +20.0% . Previous weeks were  -6.0%, +4.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, +0.2%, -0.3%, +8.0%, and -7.0%

- Composite Index week/week +16.7%.  Previous weeks were -4,2%, +0.8%. +1.1%, -1.2%, -0.6%, 5.0%, -0.3%,  -0.5%, +3.8%, +1.7%, -0.6%, -0.7%, +4.8%, -4.8%, and +6.8%

Source:  MBA   Details: https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/january/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

CPI (December 2020)

- CPI month/month    0.4%. Previous was +0.2%

- CPI year/year    1.4%. Previous was +1.2%

- Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy) month/month    0.1%. Previous was +0.2%

- Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy year/year        1.6%. Previous was 1.6%

Lower core inflation is the key to lower interest rates.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

 

January 12, 2021

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 1/9/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 2.1%. Previous was 5.5%

- Chain Store Sales month/month -2.6%. Previous was +0.5%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (December 2020)

- Index   95.9. Previous was 101.4. 

This is a survey index from National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. This is important because it is small businesses which create most jobs.

Source:  NFIB  Details:  https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-drops-below-index-average-in-december/

 

JOLTS  ( November 2020)

- Job Openings 6.527 million.  Previous was 6.632 million.

The good news is that JOLTS are were essentially no worse than October. The bad news is that JOLTS are were no better than October.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

January 8, 2021

BLS Employment Situation Report (December 2020)

Nonfarm Payrolls month/month  -140,000.   Previous was 336,000

- Unemployment Rate   6.7%. Previous was  6.7%

- Private Payrolls - month/month -94,000.  Previous was  417,000

- Manufacturing Payrolls month/month  38,000. Previous was   35,000

- Labor Participation Rate     61.5%. Previous was  61.5%

- Average Hourly Earnings month/month    0.8%. Previous was  0.2%

- Average Hourly Earnings year/year    5.1%. Previous was  4.4%

- Average Workweek        34.7 hours. Previous was  34.8 hours   

With COVID cases increasing shutdowns have increased and these numbers are moving in the wrong direction. Jobs in retail including restaurants were hit hard.  COVID has disproportionately affected people with lower paying jobs.

My newsletter of Monday will look at what industries have been affected and how long jobs recovery will take. If you want to receive this free weekly newsletter email me at dicklepre@rpm-mtg.com

 

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

 

Wholesale Inventories (November 2020)

- Inventories +0.0%.  Previous was +1.8%

This is part of 4thQ2020 GDP.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (November 2020)

- Announced layoffs     77,030. Previous was  64,797

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

 

Trade Deficit (November 2020)

- Deficit $68.1 billion.  Previous was $63.1 billion.

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  BEA  Details:  https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 1/2/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  787,000. Previous was 790,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 922,072 in the week ending January 2, an increase of 77,400  from the previous week

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  818,750. Previous was  836,750

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 118,079

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  70,553

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 293,434

Total receiving any UI decreased by 419,228

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 1/1/2020)

- Purchase Index week/week -0.8%.  Previous weeks were -5.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, 9.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, 3.0%, -1.0%, +0.2%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, -2.0%, and +3.0%

- Refinance Index week/week -6.0% . Previous weeks were  +4.0%, +1.0%, +2.0%, -5.0%, +3.8%, -2.0%, +1.0%, +6.0%, +3.0%, +0.2%, -0.3%, +8.0%, -7.0%, +9.0%, and  -4.0%

- Composite Index week/week -4,2%.  Previous weeks were +0.8%. +1.1%, -1.2%, -0.6%, 5.0%, -0.3%,  -0.5%, +3.8%, +1.7%, -0.6%, -0.7%, +4.8%, -4.8%, +6.8%, 2.5%, and +2.9%

Source:  MBA  Details:  https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/january/mortgage-applications-decreased-over-a-two-week-period-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

ADP Private Jobs  (December 2020)

- Private Jobs -123,000. Previous was +304,000

Worse than expectation.  A negative print will be seen as possibly starting a new downtrend.

Source: ADP   Details:  https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/December/NER/NER-December-2020.aspx

 

Factory Orders (November 2020)

- Month over Month +1.0% . Previous was +1.3%.    

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/26/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 5.5%. Previous was 8.9%

- Chain Store Sales month/month +0.5%. Previous was +0.4%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (December  2020)

- Index 60.7. Previous was 57.5

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

January 4, 2021

Markit Manufacturing PMI  (December 2020)

- Index  57.1. Previous was 56.7

Source:  Markit Economics  Details: https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/09b26f3d6bbd42308734b4a196abaa5e

 

Construction Spending  (November 2020)

- Month over Month   0.9%. Previous was +1.6%

- Year over Year 3.8%. Previous was 4.3%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 12/26/2020)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted  787,000. Previous was 806,000

- Initial Claims  unadjusted, totaled 841,111  a decrease of 31,726 (or -3.6 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  836,750. Previous was  819,000

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 64,501

Total receiving Pandemic UI decreased by  811,465

Total receiving Emergency Pandemic UI decreased by 20,377

Total receiving any UI decreased by 799,841

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

December 30, 2020

Good Trade Deficit (November 2020)

- Trade Deficit   $84.8 B . Previous was  $80.3 B

This is a component of 4thQ GDP. The Trade Deficit reduces GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/PressHighlights.pdf

 

Retail Inventories (November  2020)

- Month over Month +0.7% . Previous was +0.8%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories (November  2020)

- Month over Month  -0.1%. Previous was 1.2%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

Chicago PMI (December 2020)

- Index 59.5. Previous was 58.2

Source: Institute For Supply Management - Chicago

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (December 2020)

- Month over Month -2.6%. Previous was -1.2%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales. 

Source: National Association of Realtors

December 29, 2020

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ended 12/26/2020)

- Chain Store Sales year/year 8.9%. Previous was 6.5%

- Chain Store Sales month/month +0.4%. Previous was -0.9%.

Source: Redbook Research Inc.

 

Case-Shiller House Price Index (October 2020)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month    1.6%. Previous was 1.3%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month    1.3%. Previous was 1.2%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        7.9%. Previous was 6.6%

Flat supply + increased demand = higher prices.

Source: Core Logic