December 1, 2022

Challenger Job-Cut Report  (November 2022)

- Level 76,835.  Previous was 33,843.

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/26/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 225,000. Previous was 241,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 198,557 in the week ending November 26, a decrease of 50,512 (or 20.3 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  228,750. Previous was  227,000

Numbers below are for the week ended 11/12

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 111,080

Total receiving any increased by 115,477

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Personal Income and Outlays  (October 2022)

- Personal Income month/month   0.7%. Previous was 0.4%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures month/month  0.8%.Previous was +0.3%

- PCE Price Index month/month    0.3%    %. Previous was 0.3%    

- PCE Price Index year/year    6.0%. Previous was 6.3%

- Core PCE Price Index month/month    0.2%. Previous was  0.5%

- Core PCE Price Index year/year  5.0%. Previous was 5.2%

Source:  BEA  

 

PMI Manufacturing Final (November 2022)

- Index 47.7

A survey index from the supply side.

Source:  Markit Economics

 

ISM Manufacturing Index  (November 2022)

- Index 49.0. Previous was 50.2.

Source:  Institute for Supply Management

 

Construction Spending  (October  2022)

- Month over Month    -0.3%. Previous was 0.1%

- Year over Year 9.2%. Previous was 10.2%.

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf

 

November 30, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (11/25/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 3.8%. Previous weeks were 1.8%, 4.4%,1.3%, -0.8%, 2.3%, -3.7%, -2.1%, -12.6%, -0.4%, +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, and -7.3%

- Refinance Index week/week -12.9. Previous weeks were 1.8%, -1.6%, 3.5%, 0.2%, 0.0%, -6.9%, -1.8%, -17.8%, -10.9%, +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, and 3.7%

- Composite Index week/week -0.8%. Previous weeks were  2.2%, 2.7%, -0.1%, -0.5%, -1.7%, -4.5%, -2.0%, -14.2% , -3.7%, +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, and -1.8%.

Source: MBA.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/11/30/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

ADP Private Jobs  (November 2022)

- Private Jobs +127,000. Previous was +229,000

 

GDP  (3rdQ 2022)

- Quarter over Quarter - annualized   2.9%.  Previous estimate was 2.6%

- Personal Consumption Expenditures - annualized    1.7%. Previous was +1.4%

Details: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

 

Goods Trade Deficit (October 2022) - Advance

- Deficit $99.0 billion.  Previous was $91.9 billion

This is a component of 4thQ GDP.

 

Retail Inventories (October 2022) - Advance

- Month over Month -0.2%. Previous was +0.4%

This is a component of 4thQ GDP

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

 

Wholesale Inventories   (August 2022) - Advance

- Inventories 0.8%.  Previous was 0.8%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

 

JOLTS  (October 2022)

- Job Openings 10,334,000.  Previous was 10,687,000.

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

 

Pending Home Sales Index  (October 2022)

- Month over Month -4.6%. Previous was -8.7%.

This accounts only for Existing Home Sales.

Source: National Association of Realtors https://www.nar.realtor/infographics/pending-home-sales-snapshot

November 29, 2022

Case-Shiller House Price Index (September 2022)

- 20-City Adjusted month/month  -1.49%. Previous was -1.3%

- 20-City Unadjusted month/month   -1.5%. Previous was -1.6%

- 20-City Unadjusted year/year        10.4%. Previous was 13.1%

Source: Core Logic  https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview

 

FHFA House Price Index  (September 2022)

- month/month +0.1%. Previous was -0.7%

- year/year +11.0%. Previous was +12.0%

Source:  FHFA  Details:  https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/US-House-Prices-Rise-12pt4-Percent-over-the-Last-Year.aspx

 

Consumer Confidence  (November 2022)

- Index 100.2. Previous was 102.2

Source:  Conference Board

November 23, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (11/18/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 1.8%. Previous weeks were 4.4%,1.3%, -0.8%, 2.3%, -3.7%, -2.1%, -12.6%, -0.4%, +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, and 3.6%

- Refinance Index week/week1.8%. Previous weeks were -1.6%, 3.5%, 0.2%, 0.0%, -6.9%, -1.8%, -17.8%, -10.9%, +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, and -4.3%.

- Composite Index week/week. Previous weeks were  2.2%2.7%, -0.1%, -0.5%, -1.7%, -4.5%, -2.0%, -14.2% , -3.7%, +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, and -1.8%.

Source: MBA.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/11/23/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Durable Goods Orders (October 2022)

- New Orders month/month  1.0%. Previous was 0.4%

- Ex-Transportation month/month    0.5%. Previous was -0.9%

- Core Capital Goods month/month    0.7%. Previous was -0.8%

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/#durable_goods

 

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/19/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 240,000. Previous was 223,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, was 240,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level.

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  226,750. Previous was  221,250

Numbers below are for the week ended 11/5:

Total receiving regular state UI decreased by 33,741

Total receiving any decreased by 35,091

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

New Home Sales (October 2022)

- Annual Rate 632,000. Previous was 588,000

Data is seasonally adjusted and annualized.

Source:  Census  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

Consumer Sentiment (November 2022)

- Index 56.8. Previous was 54.7

This is supposed to measure consumers stated views as to spending in the next 3 months.  

Source: University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center     Details:  http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

 

 

November 18, 2022

Existing Home Sales (October  2022)

- Annual Rate 4,430,000. Previous was 4,710,000

- Month over Month -5.9%. Year over Year -28.4%

Source:   National Association of Realtors®.  Details: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales

 

Leading Economic Indicators  (October  2022)

- Month over Month  -0.8%. Previous was -0.5%

This is based on 10 forward looking indicators.

Source:  Conference Board  Details:  https://conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

November 17, 2022

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 11/12/2022)

- Initial Claims seasonally adjusted 222,000. Previous was 226,000

- Initial Claims,  unadjusted, totaled 199,603 in the week ending November 12, a decrease of 6,101 (or 3.0 percent) from the previous week. 

- 4-Week Moving Average seasonally adjusted  221,750. Previous was  219,000

Numbers below are for the week ended 10/28:

Total receiving regular state UI increased by 23,634

Total receiving any increased by 24,305

Source:  Labor Department   Details: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Housing Starts and Permits (October 2022)

- Starts - Annual Rate    1,425,000. Previous was 1,488,000

- Permits - Annual Rate    1,526,000. Previous was 1,564,000

A goal must be to keep starts above the 1.500,000 annual needed to accommodate expanded population and units lost. 

SFR Starts were 855,000.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

 

November 16, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (11/11/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 4.4%. Previous weeks were 1.3%, -0.8%, 2.3%, -3.7%, -2.1%, -12.6%, -0.4%, +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, and -4.3%.

- Refinance Index week/week -1.6. Previous weeks were 3.5%, 0.2%, 0.0%, -6.9%, -1.8%, -17.8%, -10.9%, +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, and 2.2%.

- Composite Index week/week 2.7%. Previous weeks were -0.1%, -0.5%, -1.7%, -4.5%, -2.0%, -14.2% , -3.7%, +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, and -6.3%.

Source: MBA.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/11/16/mortgage-applications-increase-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Retail Sales  (October 2022)

- Retail Sales month/month  1.3%. Previous was 0.04%

- Ex-Vehicles month/month  1.3%. Previous was 0.1%

- Ex-Vehicles & Gas month/month  0.9%   Previous was 0.3%

Retail Sales is the largest component of 4thQ 2022 GDP.  This data is seasonally adjusted but not inflation adjusted.

Source:  Census  Details:  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

 

Import and Export Prices (October 2022)

- Import Prices month/month     -0.2%. Previous was -1.1%

- Import Prices year/year    4.2%. Previous was +6.0%

- Export Prices month/month   -0.3%. Previous was -0.8%

- Export Prices year/year    5.9%. Previous was 9.5%

 

Industrial Production   (October 2022)

- Industrial Production month/month -0.1%.    Previous was 0.1%.

- Manufacturing Output month/month 0.1% . Previous was  0.2%

- Capacity Utilization Rate        79.9%. Previous was 80.1

- Industrial Production year/year +3.3%

Source:  Federal Reserve  https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/default.htm

 

Business Inventories (September 2022)

- Inventories month/month  0.4%. Previous was 0.8%.

This is a component of 3rdQ 2022 GDP.

Source:  Census   Details: https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf

 

November 15, 2022

PPI  (August 2022)

- PPI-FD month/month    +0.4%. Previous was -0.2%

- PPI-FD year/year        8.5%. Previous was 8.7%

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month    0.3%. Previous was 0.3%

- Ex-Food & Energy year/year       7.2%. Previous was 8.1%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services month/month    0.4%. Previous was 0.2%

- Ex-Food, Energy & Trade Services year/year    5.6%. Previous was +5.6%

This is inflation at the wholesale level.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)   Details:  https://www.bls.gov/ppi/

November 10, 2022

CPI (October 2022)

- CPI month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.4%. Previous was +0.4%

- CPI year/year not seasonally adjusted   +7.7%. Previous was 8.2%.

- Ex-Food & Energy month/month, seasonally adjusted +0.3%. Previous was +0.6%

- Ex-Food & Energy not seasonally adjusted   year/year 6.3%. Previous was 6.6%

Source:  BLS  Details: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm

November 9, 2022

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended (10/28/2022)

- Purchase Index week/week 1.3%. Previous weeks were -0.8%, 2.3%, -3.7%, -2.1%, -12.6%, -0.4%, +1.0%, +0.2%,  -0.7%, -1.8%, -0.5%, -0.8%, -1.4%, 1.0%, -0.8%, -7.3%, 3.6%, -4.3%, and +0.1%

- Refinance Index week/week -3.5%. Previous weeks were 0.2%, 0.0%, -6.9%, -1.8%, -17.8%, -10.9%, +10.4%, -1.2%,-1.1%, -7.9%, -2.8%, -5.4%, 3.5%, 1.5%, 3.7%, -4.3%, 2.2%, and -7.7%

- Composite Index week/week -0.1%. Previous weeks were  -0.5%, -1.7%, -4.5%, -2.0%, -14.2% , -3.7%, +3.8%, -4.2%, 0.8%, -3.7%, -1.8%, -7.9%, -1.2%, -2.3%, 0.2%, 1.2%, -1.8%, -6.3%, and -1.7%.

Source: MBA.  https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/11/09/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey

 

Wholesale Inventories (September 2022) (Preliminary)

- Inventories 0.6%.  Previous was 1.4%

Source:  Census  Details: https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf